Hawthorn vs Geelong Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 3, 2024
Last updated: Apr 1, 2024, 4:01AM | Published: Mar 25, 2024, 12:31AM
Hawthorn will face the favoured Geelong in AFL Round 3 action at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Monday, commencing at 3:20pm AEDT.
Stats Insider's top betting tips for the Hawthorn vs Geelong game, plus the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips, are detailed below.
Who Will Win: Hawthorn vs Geelong
Using detailed computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Monday's Hawthorn-Geelong AFL match 10,000 times.
Our leading predictive analytics model gives the Cats a 63% chance of beating the Hawks in Round 3 of the 2024 AFL season.
More: Hawthorn vs Geelong Match Centre
Hawthorn vs Geelong: Odds
The current betting odds for Monday's AFL clash at the Melbourne Cricket Ground are shown below:
- Head to Head: Hawthorn $3.15, Geelong $1.45
- Line: Hawthorn +16.5 ($1.90), Geelong -16.5 ($2.08)
- Total (Over/Under 159.5 Points): Over $2.14, Under $1.73
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, TAB currently has Hawthorn at $3.15 and Geelong at $1.45.
The Hawks are listed as 16.5-point underdogs against the Cats, with odds of $1.90 currently available at TAB.
For the favourite Cats (-16.5) to cover the line, TAB currently has odds of $2.08.
The Over/Under for Hawthorn vs Geelong has been set at 159.5 with TAB, which currently has odds for the Over at $2.14 and odds for the Under at $1.73.
According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the Hawks (+16.5) have a 60% chance of covering the line, while the 159.5-point Over/Under has a 68% chance of staying Under.
More: AFL Fixture Difficulty 2024
Hawthorn vs Geelong: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: Hawthorn at $3.15 with (5.2% edge) 🔥
- Line: Hawthorn +16.5 at $1.90 with Betfair (60% probability) 🔥
- Total Points: Under 159.5 at $1.73 with Betfair (68% probability) 🔥
Every time you see a 🔥, you know it's one of Stats Insider's best bets of the day across any sport.
These Hawthorn vs Geelong betting tips are based on world-class simulations and betting intelligence to give you the best possible advice 24/7.
While the Cats have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Hawks to win is our preferred option due to the 5.2% edge found when comparing our data-led probabilities to the odds currently available.
Taking advantage of the edges seen here at Stats Insider is one of the keys to achieving long-term success as a punter.
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Hawthorn vs Geelong: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Hawthorn vs Geelong at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Monday has Geelong winning 79-70.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider has full coverage of Hawthorn vs Geelong on Monday, including pre-match predictions, expert tips, and live win probabilities.
Hawthorn vs Geelong: Goal Kickers
Searching for Hawthorn vs Geelong goal kicker tips? The data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Geelong's Jeremy Cameron is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Hawthorn vs Geelong.
Cameron has an 8.8% chance of kicking the first goal at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, while the Cats star has a 91.2% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the match.
Scroll down for the complete list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Kicker Tips
Hawthorn
- Luke Breust: 5.6% probability
- Mitch Lewis: 5.5% probability
- Mabior Chol: 4.6% probability
- Jack Ginnivan: 3.8% probability
- Nick Watson: 3.6% probability
Geelong
- Jeremy Cameron: 8.8% probability
- Tom Hawkins: 8.4% probability
- Tyson Stengle: 5.9% probability
- Oliver Henry: 5.2% probability
- Brad Close: 3.6% probability
Anytime Goal Scorer Tips
Hawthorn
- Luke Breust: 78.3% probability
- Mitch Lewis: 77.5% probability
- Mabior Chol: 71.1% probability
- Jack Ginnivan: 64.7% probability
- Nick Watson: 58.2% probability
Geelong
- Jeremy Cameron: 91.2% probability
- Tom Hawkins: 89.9% probability
- Tyson Stengle: 79.8% probability
- Oliver Henry: 76.0% probability
- Brad Close: 60.7% probability
Remember, our model updates regularly, so refresh this article for the latest betting analysis before the Hawthorn vs Geelong match at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
As always, check out our Best Bets to get the best tips for every AFL match, plus a host of other sports that we offer predictions on.
More: AFL Player Ratings 2024
Hawthorn vs Geelong: Preview
The AFL Round 3 clash between the Hawks and Cats at the Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to start at 3:20pm AEDT on Monday.
- Teams: Hawthorn vs Geelong
- Date: Monday 1 April 2024
- Time: 3:20pm AEDT
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT) unless otherwise noted.
Our Hawthorn vs Geelong predictions are the result of 10,000 data-driven simulations of the match, all curated by our team of experienced data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are trustworthy and reliable, giving you the knowledge you need to make informed decisions with confidence.
If you decide to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's vital to gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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