Head vs Heart: Can The Eels Resurgence Continue?

In Head vs Heart, the common sense of data goes head-to-head with unbridled power of passion in a weekly battle here on Stats Insider. Sometimes we'll agree, but sometimes we won't. This week Cronulla host the revitalised Parramatta. Can the Eels make it three in a row with a win at Shark Park?

	Home ground against the bottom of the table Eels; this has a Sharks win written all over. Even with Josh Dugan sitting in the stands and the reshuffle of the backline, the Sharkies will deal to them by double digits.
	SI isn't so sure. The Eels cover the 3.5 point line in a whopping 66 percent of simulations. Even at $2.20 outsiders they are winning exactly half of all game simulations according to SI. The Eels line bet looks like the one to go with this Saturday.
	So the Sharks are only going to score 12 points then? The Eels are beyond bad on the road to average only nine points per game. Let's not forget Parramatta only scored four points AT HOME when these two met in Round 3 either.
	The Sharks are tied for the third worst attack while they have the sixth best defence. The Eels have the worst attack in the NRL while they rank thirteenth in defence. The last two meetings between the teams have failed to break 26 points, including the 14-4 result earlier in the season. With two poor attacking sides going head to head, is it a day for the Unders?
	The Heart can sign off on that. If there's one thing the Sharks love, it's an old fashioned arm-wrestle. They can frustrate the under-pressure Eels into mistakes and run away with it late for that double-digit win.
	Double digits seems unlikely by the numbers. Six of the Sharks eight matches have been decided by 10 points or less, and they've only broken the 20 point barrier twice.
	Valentine Holmes gets another chance at fullback in this one, though. You know he's not going to blow another opportunity to stake his claim on the jumper. He will have his hand in a few points on Saturday for sure. At $7 to score 2 or more tries, sign me up!
	Someone else in for a big night might be Michael Jennings, who has seven tries in eight matches at Shark Park. He's got 11 total tries against the Sharks, only against Wests Tigers does he have more (12).
	That's fine; Jennings can score his 12th try against the Sharks. The Eels won't get many more after he does, though. The defence is too good to leak more than one try. Lock in Sharks to win and cover the spread - comfortably.

Office Verdict: the office likes the Eels to cover the spread. Get on the +3.5!