Head vs Heart: Can The Tigers Overcome The Odds Yet Again?

In Head vs Heart, the common sense of data goes head-to-head with unbridled power of passion in a weekly battle here on Stats Insider. This week the Brisbane Broncos master coach Wayne Bennett comes to Campbelltown, with Ivan Cleary’s Wests Tigers underdogs yet again. Can they cause another upset?

Heart is Jason Oliver, Head is Adam Joseph.

	Two weeks and two wins for the Tigers against teams that are meant to be premiership contenders. The Broncos are an easy beat after their start to the season. Tigers to win H2H.
	Woah woah woah, easy tiger. Lightning might have struck twice for the Tigers, but a third time doesn't seem as likely. SI's model still believes in the Broncos, and still has them as a slight 55% favourite heading into Friday's clash.
	Are the Broncos going to have 14 blokes on the field, too? The referee gifted the Storm 18 penalties last week. Give the Tigers a fair shake and their defence that has only let in 16 points in 160 minutes wins them the game.
	I believe the gifts were the errors made by the Storm, not the penalty count. Brisbane undefeated in Campbelltown against Wests, with 6 wins and a draw in 7 trips there. Friday night will be win number 7. Don't forget last season's triumphant 36-0 victory at Suncorp Stadium, either.
	This Tigers team is different. Defence is the priority and they'll give it everything for the full 80. Unlike the Broncos last week, the Tigers won't need the goalpost to make a match-winning tackle to secure the two points. The players will make the tackles and win it on their own.
	Speaking of tackles, the Broncos lead the NRL with 708. They'll enjoy a lot more possession this week and will make the most of it as master coach Wayne Bennett has had two weeks to study the Tigers weaknesses defensively.
	The Broncos can study and make all the tackles they want. They're coming up against a Tigers attack that's improving and just needs a moment of vintage Benji magic to get the scoreboard rolling. It's going to be another win for the giant-killers.
	A Tigers attack that'll need more than 10 points to prevail this time around. Against the Wests Tigers, Brisbane has won 16 of 17 matches when ahead or level at the break. Provided they don't fall asleep to start the game, the Broncos will run rampant and end the Tigers bright start to the year.