Head vs Heart: Can The Tigers Upset The Storm Again?

The Tigers have only won 5 of 13 games at Mt Smart Stadium and all of those were against the lowly Warriors. No chance they beat the defending premiers over there. Heart is all over the -8 line, and then some.

Tests have been one of the surprise packets of the season, with gritty early season defence & an impressive 30-20 win last week over the struggling Eels. The Tigers are covering the 8 point spread in 56 percent of simulations, and while they might not win, they should keep it close. Melbourne 1-12 @ $3 offers great value.

The Tigers can't give away 20 points to the Eels and not expect the Storm to score more. Chalk up at least 30 for the Storm, and considering nobody has scored more than 18 points against them all season, 13+ looks better than 1-12.

It's hard to argue against a Storm victory. They've won 14 in a row following a loss, but something tells me this will be closer than you think. Wests Tigers are 4-0 ATS with a 3-1 under record while Melbourne are 2-2 ATS with a 2-2 total record. The bookies aren't giving the Tigers enough credit.

Because the bookies know what happens when the Storm are celebrating their legends - they dominate. Craig Bellamy is coaching game 400 this week and the boys will turn up for him. He will have them ready after losing to Wests in Round 2, as well. There's Buckley's chance they make the same mistakes again.

To be fair, they didn't dominate for Billy Slater's 300th game. This could head the same way as the last encounter - a defensive, grinding contest. 9 of the last 11 games have tallied 38 points or fewer, which indicates Unders might offer the value.

The Heart can sign off on the Under. Give the Storm their 30 points and the Tigers a consolation try and we're only at 36 points. The wheels started to wobble at the back end of the game for the Tigers last week. They'll fall off entirely on Saturday.

Head thinks that the Tigers have more points in them than just the converted try. They racked up seven line breaks and 39 tackle busts against the Eels. That's a team who is confident in attack. Russell Packer will lead them strongly in defense and this will be another close contest.