Head vs Heart: Warriors vs Broncos

In Head vs Heart, the common sense of data goes head-to-head with unbridled power of passion in a weekly battle here on Stats Insider. Sometimes we'll agree, but sometimes we won't. This week the Brisbane Broncos head to New Zealand for a battle with the Warriors. Can the Warriors win again and make it an unbeaten 6-0 start?

	The Warriors have my heart. Forget everything you've ever known about this club famous for its history of underachieving. They are the real deal and will move to 6-0 with a big win over the Broncos this week.
	Winning 60 percent of simulations, it's hard to argue with another Warriors win. If they do, it'll be the first time since 2002 the club has won six in a row – that year they made the Grand Final. The Broncos have been inconsistent but Wayne Bennett's men will need to bring their best against the NRL's 3rd best attack and 3rd best defence.

Warriors H2H

	Not even the great Wayne Bennett using his big head to the best of its ability can get this bits and pieces Broncos team over the line. Gillett; gone. Milford; out of form. Bird; a centre playing in the halves. Double the -5.5 spread for the Warriors and I'd still take it.
	SI's simulations aren't so certain - the Broncos cover 55 percent of the time. As an underdog on the road, Brisbane have covered 11 of their last 17. 10 of the past 12 contests between these two teams has been won by the home team, so Head likes the Warriors to get it done in a tight contest H2H but with the Broncos +5.5 (preferably 6.5 if you can find it anywhere).

BRONCOS +6.5

	Where are the Broncos getting these points to keep the game close? Warriors have scored 20+ every week. The Broncos have achieved 20+ only once and average 13.8 points per game for the year. Maybe they could jag a few points at Suncorp, but not at Mt Smart in the form they're in.
	It'll have to start in the halves. The Milford/Nikorima experiment hasn't worked so far, but Anthony Milford and Jack Bird are brilliant ball carriers. Eventually, master coach Wayne Bennett will find his bearings with this team. But they'll also need a hell of a lot more from their forwards, because they were dismal last week.

ANYTIME TRYSCORERS

	I'll tell you what, this Warriors pack isn't going to be having nightmares about facing the likes of Sam Thaiday and Sam Tagatese this week. The Broncos will struggle defensively without Matt Gillett too. Give me Leivaha Pulu to score anytime running through a Gillett shaped gap on the Warriors' left side. Warriors to win and the total to go Over sounds like a match made in heaven.
	With the second best differential in the NRL, it's hard to argue with any pro-Warriors point of view. New Zealand are a perfect 5-0 ATS while Brisbane are 1-4 ATS, so your points may very well be valid. If the Broncos can't stop the Warriors, the Over play might be a good one considering the total goes Over in 58 percent of SI simulations.

SI Office Verdict:  if you can get +6.5 Broncos, take it!