Healthy profits from early NFL & College Football success
Last updated: Oct 5, 2018, 1:57AM | Published: Oct 3, 2018, 1:18AM
American Football is one of the most heavily bet on sports in the world. With so many games and markets on offer across NCAA College Football and the NFL, it's a punters' smorgasbord of betting. That being said, it is often hard to identify value, due to the sharpness of the market and the number of pros with advanced models targeting the sport.
Stats Insider launched its College Football model for 2018/19 season, and just 5 weeks in we are already showing a healthy profit against closing lines.
As has been the case with all sports this season, the Totals market led the way with the Stats Insider CFB model registering a 21% Profit On Turnover (POT) this season, including a 59% POT on Green Smileys.
CFB Totals Prediction Results
CFB Totals Prediction Results - Green Smileys
For those not familiar with Stats Insider's Smiley system, Green Smileys indicate a clear edge in the market, while Orange Smileys refer to a small edge over the bookmakers implied probabilities, on which we suggest a smaller play, if any. While we do not provide staking advice, those subscribers following a proportional system (staking proportionally to the edge on a market) would be showing even stronger results.
The value plays identified by the Stats Insider model on CFB lines/spreads have also recorded nearly a 5% POT so far this season, including a 63% POT on Green Smileys alone.
CFB Lines Overall Prediction Results
CFB Line Prediction Results - Green Smileys
The same success in College Football has extended to the NFL. Four weeks into the season, subscribers are already seeing a strong return on their investment. In the head-to-head market, our NFL model has recorded a 22% POT against closing lines, including a handful of successful underdog predictions.
NFL H2H Prediction Results
On Lines, the NFL Model has registered a 54% POT, with a 15-8 overall record (65.22% strike rate), including a perfect 6-0 record on Green Smileys against closing lines (betting in the 15 minutes before kick-off). Earlier bettors would have picked up additional value, including San Francisco +10.5 last weekend -- a game the 49ers should have won outright.
NFL Lines Prediction Results - Green Smileys
With a streak like this, a Stats Insider Premium membership starting at just $10 per week will get you on board to share the ride with us.
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