There’s nothing quite like waking up to a beautiful morning of sunshine, cold beverages, a few golf bets and the beginning of the end of western democracy. 

Been a while between golf write ups but with the Masters a week away we thought we’d sharpen up the long form and give punters something to read over some coldies this arv. 

Houston Open

New course for this year, it’s a public course at Memorial Park in Houston. Wide fairways, not many trees, Bermuda greens, tough green complexes, so short game is big here because there will be players needing to get up and down after running off the greens. 

Not touching DJ who should rightly win by 5 shots here, he has had Covid and has next week on his mind, Brooks can’t get out of bed, Scotty coming back from the virus as well. 

Like Hatton but too short, so we head down the list to two guys we feel represent value,  and a little roughie who is a Club 20 favourite.

Not much wind to speak of, it will be there but not crazy and no clear tee time split or weather split. Here we go. 

Brian Harman

The Bry man has been a model of consistency for a few months now, not finishing outside the top 40 since the PGA Championship in June. Gun putter, likes Bermuda and is ranked #3 in this field for Scrambling Gained. 

Couple those tidbits with the narrative that Harman will be watching Augusta on TV next week, it just adds up to enough for us to have the confidence for an each-way play. 

Jordan Spieth

It is in Texas, its wide fairways, and it is needing to be super sharp around and on the greens  we’re prepared to give Jordan an each-way chance at odds to compete here in a field that looks stacked but has question marks on a lot of the top end. Like that the crowd will be there for Jordan, think he needs some positivity in-round when he gets down on himself. 

Robby Shelton

Pure odds play here, Shelton can contend and at such crazy odds for someone who bobs up every now and then, we’re interested. Not in the field next week so he will be completely committed to this event where he will be able to benefit from what can be a pretty wild and wayward driver at times.

When his irons fire, he fires and his last two efforts at the Shrines (T34) and CJ Cup (T21) highlight his irons are in a good place, gaining 1.6 and 1.9 strokes on the field respectively. Putter turned around too.  

If DJ has a lacklustre opening round, we will look to jump on when his odds shift because really, he should be winning this by plenty on recent form.

Cyprus Showdown

Same course at Aphrodite Hills but a vastly different format with scoring resetting after 36 holes, with the top 32 playing Saturday, then reset the scores again on the Sunday morning with the top 16 remaining to shoot it out from scratch over 18 holes. 

A decent argument can be made to sit back and have a look for two days and then take a few runners who get mispriced from the final 32 who make Saturday, and we may well do that as well, but when you wake up Thursday, hungover from Origin and slightly depressed about the increased turnout for Trump, there is a strong compulsion to have a flutter on just about anything!

I do suspect that markets will struggle with this event in general, but particularly on Saturday, as 32 golfers get put back to scratch and yet will all go in with odds greatly effected by their previous two days play. Ditto Sunday as well. 

It is a fun format whatever happens, and our strategy this week is a 3/1/1 game plan where we will take our 3 guys today then add one on Saturday and again on Sunday unless our initial guys are killing it. 

Sami Valimaki

He may walk like he has a lob wedge stuck up there, but the kid can play. Was two shots off winning it and really he looked like birdie was in play any given hole. Putts well, drives well, hits his irons ridiculously well. Yes he faded Sunday but he was right there all tournament and will only have taken positives from it. Has less to beat now and if he gets to Sunday, you can bet he will not be what he is today. 

Jordan Smith

Going again on the young Englishman who we loved last week but who let us down incredibly on Sunday. An early birdie saw him into a tie for second but a bogey on the 3rd was the beginning of the end as Smith slid down the leaderboard thanks to some horrible course management on the Par 5’s on the front 9. He will have learnt from that, we loved him as a course fit last week, and we’re getting a few extra points this week in a smaller field in a format that should suit. Each-way looks great value given there will be just 16 runners on Sunday. 

Jason Scrivener

T6 last week after DOMINATING the Par 5’s over all 4 days. Was -13 on the Par 5’s. T14 and T8 on the double event at Celtic Manor shows he can maintain and improve the form at the same course back to back, and that Par 5 record last week provides safety for making it through those two cuts / giving him access to a 66 or 65 on Saturday and Sunday. Again, each way is the play at crazy odds given his play last week.

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