Following four consecutive bottom-four finishes and losers of 11 of their last 12 games, the North Queensland Cowboys kicked off the 2022 NRL season as 22.7% favourites for the wooden spoon.

Plenty questioned Todd Payten’s methods and selections in the build-up to Round 1. 

He benched their most influential attacking player of 2021 for a 21-year old with only 34 games worth of NRL experience - 27 of those games ended in defeat. Jason Taumalolo’s role in the side - his position and his minutes - is something that is still relatively unclear. It's something few saw coming 18 months ago when he was still considered the best lock forward in rugby league.

As far as coaching hot seats go, most expected Payten’s to start sizzling sooner rather than later.

Instead, the Cowboys have won two of their opening three games to sit at 2nd on the NRL ladder after three rounds.

They’re by no means a premiership contender or Top 8 certainty just yet. Early-season form is hard to measure when the strength of the draw is unknown and every team is working their way back into full-time football. But what we’ve seen from the Cowboys so far this season is better than expected and encouraging moving forward.

Punters- At TopSport, the Cowboys are paying $3 to return to the finals for the first time since 2017.

What we’ve seen so far

Even the most hearty of Cowboys diehards will have been slightly concerned following their 6-4 loss to the Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs in Round 1. At home and against the 2021 wooden spooners, the Cowboys looked like willing recipients of the culinary tool as the attack failed to fire despite a dominant middle, a territory advantage and 27 tackles inside the opposition's 20-metre line.

But the following two weeks have gone to plan for the Cowboys. A plan Payten probably had all along.

The Cowboys have played a somewhat favourable schedule but have made the most of it over the last fortnight to lead the NRL in yardage, possession and points conceded. Most notable is the eight points per game they’ve conceded to start the season after playing with the worst defence in the competition allowing 31.2 points per game in 2021.

Payten came into the year with a focus on defence. It is a large reason why Dearden is in the side and highlights what the Cowboys are focusing on most:

"Both of them attacked really well (in the trial), I just thought Tommy defended stronger so that's the reason why he's in the team," Payten said in the preseason.

What has made things easier for Dearden and Chad Townsend in the halves is the work the yardage men are doing in front of them. Taumalolo is down on his individual numbers but the Cowboys are up overall to lead the NRL in running metres at 1,818 metres per game.

North Queensland’s set starts, in particular, are notably strong.

Peta Hiku (148.3m), Valentine Holmes (147.3m), Kyle Feldt (146.7m) and Murray Taulagi (140.3m) are combining for 582 running metres per game to start the season. All four are putting themselves in positions to take strong carries as the Cowboys work out of their own end and all four are in the Top 50 in running metres alongside Taumalolo (146.5) and Tom Gilbert (135.3m).

With the dominance in yardage comes a dominance in possession where the Cowboys lead the competition at 55%. Dearden and Townsend - two organising halves - can thrive in their relatively no-frills approach to the attack. They can pick and prod defensive lines and target specific weaknesses, just as Dearden did to the Broncos attack in Round 3 when he played for, and around, their jamming edge defence.

But most notable is the defence and the 24 total points the Cowboys have conceded to start the year.

While the Bulldogs have been one of the worst attacking teams in the competition in recent years and have started this one the same, and despite the fact the Canberra Raiders are painfully inconsistent and the Broncos are much the same, to concede only 24 points in three weeks is impressive and encouraging regardless of the opposition. It’s exactly what Payten and the Cowboys worked on improving most over the summer and it appears to be paying dividends so far in 2022.

Punters- At TopSport, the Cowboys have drifted to $15 to claim an unwanted wooden spoon. 

What is real and what is not?

It’s predominantly rainbows and lollipops for the Cowboys at the moment. Pundits and experts death rode their wooden spoon predictions into the season opener, and while there is a lot that can still go wrong over the next 22 rounds, it’s unlikely that they end up at 16th after Round 25. The Stats Insider Futures model has dropped the Cowboys from 22.7% to 8.3% and it won’t be a surprise to see them exit the wooden spoon conversation entirely in the next six weeks.

The dominance in the middle looks like something the Cowboys can maintain this season, too.

Their back five is already one of the best in the competition when it comes to yardage. A lot of that comes down to the kicking games of Dearden and Townsend. The Cowboys can build pressure by pinning the opposition in their own end off the boot of their halves before the back five and powerful middle maintain that pressure by starting sets strong and from favourable field position.

If Payten can get a little bit more out of Taumalolo - which it looks like he will after playing him for 51 straight minutes last week - then the Cowboys middle will only improve further.

Unsurprisingly, teams that are able to make their way up the field tend to score more points than those that don’t. This trend will more than likely grow stronger as the season progresses.

The work on the back of that yardage is unlikely to keep up at its current rate, though. Tries from kicks are worth just as much as those that are scored by passing the ball. However, hanging one in the air and hoping your man collects it and lands over the line isn’t an action that can be reliably repeated every week. Jeremiah Nanai had a field day pulling down Dearden’s attacking kicks in Round 3 but nobody expects a repeat in Round 4. Instead, the Cowboys will need to develop different ways to score points in the coming weeks. Averaging 22.7 points per game right now, it doesn’t feel like it will be long before that dips to below 20 points per game.

In contrast, the eight points per game the Cowboys are conceding right now would end up as the best defence in NRL history - by a distance. Impressive as it might be, it isn’t sustainable.

There is a lot to like about the Cowboys at the moment. At the very least, they’re proving the preseason doubters wrong. However, regression is just around the corner. The important thing to consider and keep an eye on in the coming weeks is how they defend. It’s North Queensland’s performance without the ball that will determine how far they exceed expectations by the end of the season.

Punters- At TopSport, you can get $4 about the Cowboys being the best-placed team in QLD at the conclusion of the home and away season.

Crystal Ball

There is a log-jam of teams already fighting for position towards the bottom of the Top 8. While the Cowboys are currently 2nd on the ladder, they’re only at 5.5% to stay inside the Top 4 for the season. Instead, they’re more likely to be in the group of teams with a calculator at the ready towards the end of the year, crunching the numbers to determine what needs to happen to extend their season beyond Round 25.

It’s easy to get too excited about a hot start to an NRL season. Just take the Cowboys last year for example. They were 7th on the ladder after 14 rounds before finishing 15th. It’s difficult for teams predicted to struggle to exceed expectations all season.

North Queensland will play through a few poor patches. They won’t be allowed to have too many of them during the season if they’re to sneak into the finals, though. With the Roosters, Rabbitohs and Panthers to play in the last month, the Cowboys will want competition points in the bank.

The early signs are promising for Payten and the Cowboys. They have an encouraging blend of youth and experience and the balance between attack and defence has flipped. It may not end with a first finals appearance since 2017, but there is a good chance the 2022 season takes them one step closer to ending the drought.

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