2023 NRL Premiership Contenders: How Much Should You Read Into Round 1 Losses?
Last updated: Mar 8, 2023, 4:54AM | Published: Mar 8, 2023, 1:54AM
The opening round of the 2023 NRL season came with a number of enthralling games and key upsets.
Both of last year's grand finalists, the Eels and Panthers, suffered Round 1 losses, but the shock of the weekend came from the Roosters, who lost on Sunday to the newly formed Dolphins despite starting the game with an 82% win probability with Stats Insider's pre-game model.
The Dolphins had a dream #NRL debut against the Roosters.
— Stats Insider (@StatsInsider) March 6, 2023
According to our in-play predictive model, their win probability dropped to a low of 7.2% and did not exceed 50% until the 50th minute in #NRLDolphinsRoosters. pic.twitter.com/7eEVH5mfC7
The losses for the Panthers and Roosters were not ideal for the premiership fancies, with the Stats Insider NRL futures model shuffling both teams down to second and fifth, respectively.
Should you panic about the top teams after early season defeats?
READ: 2023 NRL Fixture Analysis: Why the Broncos and Raiders Are Your Best Bets
Eels Slide Down Premiership Probabilities
Against the Storm, the Eels made a lot of questionable decisions late in the game that led to an eventual loss.
It was a disappointing showing against an undermanned Storm outfit, who were able to secure the win after scores were tied at the completion of the 80 minutes.
As a consequence, the Eels have dropped to seventh in Stats Insider's NRL premiership predictive model with a 5.3% probability.
Our model was wary of the Eels heading into 2023, and after a disappointing beginning to the season, it may take some time before Parramatta is trusted again.
Panthers Still in the Top Two
The Panthers lost to the Broncos by a single-digit margin, which the reigning premiers would have thought was a much easier game going into the new season.
Even with that loss, the Stats Insider NRL futures model has the Panthers as the second favourites with a 14.4% win probability, highlighting the confidence it has in the two-time champions.
The market also is keeping its confidence in the premiers, with TAB keeping them steady as the 2023 NRL premiership favourites at the $4.75 mark.
However, it doesn't get any easier for the Panthers on Thursday night.
Another chapter in the rivalry begins 😤#pantherpride 🐾 pic.twitter.com/qvlhbL1z2S
— Penrith Panthers 🏆🏆 (@PenrithPanthers) March 7, 2023
Round 2 of the 2023 NRL season kicks off with the Panthers hosting the Rabbitohs, who are our futures model's top two most probable teams for the premiership, which will give fans of both sides a great indicator of where they are at.
Roosters Drop After Shock Loss
The Roosters went into the 2023 NRL season as one of the most likely teams to win the premiership according to our futures model, but after a shock loss to the Dolphins in Round 1, they have dropped dramatically in our standings.
Sydney is currently fifth in our premiership probabilities at 12.6%, but another loss for the Roosters against the Warriors on Saturday afternoon would likely see them fall down even further.
The Roosters are still the second favourite with the TAB at $6.50, but they cannot afford to keep losing games against sides that are projected by our model to be in the running for most losses.
(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
