Inside the NFL's Game-Changing MVP Race
Last updated: Dec 5, 2019, 12:50AM | Published: Nov 21, 2019, 10:39PM
Not only has this NFL season presented itself as a bouquet of top-tier excellence and cutthroat competition in 2019, but the MVP race is mirroring the scramble for superiority.
In previous years, and by this point in the season, the MVP winner has either separated himself from the pack, or his candidacy is accompanied by one - maybe two - major challengers.
This remarkable NFL season, however, still has at least a handful of MVP hopefuls, each of whom are putting together remarkable campaigns.
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While this award very much remains dominated by one position, the quarterbacks that are in MVP contention in 2019 are not only known for their game-changing excellence, but because of how they are genuinely challenging and transforming the very fibre of the position.
LAMAR JACKSON, Baltimore Ravens
TAB MVP Odds: $2.40
Heading into the 2019 season, the lasting impression Lamar Jackson left on fans was his deplorable performance in the Baltimore Ravens' meek Wild Card exit at the hands of the LA Chargers last January.
In that game, Jackson’s faults as a traditional passer were on full display, sacked seven times and limping to a paltry 194 passing yards.
Not only was Jackson’s playoff performance highly concerning, but it fit with a controversial rookie season, in which he - however breathtaking from a running perspective - struggled mightily within the traditional QB metrics, completing just 58.2% of his pass attempts while throwing just six touchdowns.
However, while the NFL world assessed the Ravens prospects this season through the lens of Jackson’s limitations, the former first-round NFL Draft pick out of Louisville had very different ideas, emerging this season as the NFL’s single most dynamic player.
Not only has the former NCAA Heisman Trophy winner maintained his jaw-dropping running ability and speed - already amassing 788 yards and six touchdowns on the ground - but he has humiliated all who doubted his ability as a legitimate passer, tossing 19 touchdowns, lifting his pass accuracy to 66.3% while dialling up a 106.3 passer rating.
Even if Jackson doesn’t win this year’s award, his play in 2019 has mesmerised the league - and reinvigorated this Ravens franchise - ensuring that he’ll be a perennial MVP threat for years to come.
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RUSSELL WILSON, Seattle Seahawks
TAB MVP Odds: $2.50
In the off-season, the Seattle Seahawks handed over the NFL’s richest ever contract to QB Russell Wilson, granting the one-time Super Bowl winner a massive four-year, $140 million deal to continue to pilot the Seahawks.
Through ten games, not a soul in ‘Emerald City’ would be regretting the deal, with Wilson’s Seahawks on the cusp, not just of the lead in the NFC West, but within sight of a possible overall #1 seed in the conference.
Wilson is producing career-highs across the board, leading the league in touchdowns (23) and passer rating (114.9), while throwing just two interceptions on the entire season.
Just as he was when he was at the helm of Seattle’s breakthrough 2013 Super Bowl victory, Wilson isn’t surrounded by otherworldly offensive weapons or an elite offensive line, but has thrived on his incredible powers of improvisation and leadership.
The emergence of WR speedsters, Tyler Lockett, and rookie, DJ Metcalf, have given the five-time Pro Bowler two high-quality deep threats to go alongside with the ever-reliable Chris Carson who’s already surpassed 1,000 scrimmage yards on the season.
Wilson, who turns 31 this week, is only now entering the absolute prime of his career, with the remainder of #NFL100 an opportunity for Wilson to confirm his status as the sport’s very best.
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DESHAUN WATSON, Houston Texans
TAB MVP Odds: $15
If you’re wondering why the Houston Texans, despite so many of their limitations, are still in contention to claim their fourth AFC South crown in five seasons, look no further than QB, Deshaun Watson.
While the Texans remain without an actual general manager and continue to house a Swiss cheese defence ranked just #24th in DVOA, in addition to surrendering superstar Jedeveon Clowney to Seattle for virtually nothing, they remain in contention because of Watson’s utter excellence at the quarterback position.
It is sometimes very easy to forget Watson is just 33 games into his professional career such is the leadership and maturity of the former first-round pick out of Clemson.
While Watson’s MVP chances took a hit last week against the Ravens, where new MVP favourite, Lamar Jackson, stole the show, Watson has been sublime this season, already throwing 20 touchdowns to just seven interceptions, while thankfully getting his sack rate down from 10.9% to 8.6%.
Increased stability on the Texans' offensive line has been enabled thanks to the addition of Laremy Tunsil who arrived in Houston courtesy of an expensive trade with the Miami Dolphins, costing the Texans two first-round draft picks.
Watson has also thrived in 2019 without a signature season from two-time All-Pro wide receiver, DeAndre Hopkins, who has caught just four touchdowns, while averaging a three-year low 76.3 receiving yards per game, however he's increasingly relied on his tight ends, with Darren Fells and Jordan Akins combining for 526 yards and eight touchdowns on the season.
[EDIT: Hopkins had two touchdowns on Week 12's Thursday Night Football, taking his season tally to 6)
At just 24 years of age, Watson will play a major role in MVP races to come, even if 2019 isn’t his year.
PATRICK MAHOMES, Kansas City Chiefs
TAB MVP Odds: $17
Arguably the most precociously gifted talent to ever enter the NFL, Patrick Mahomes remains in contention for back-to-back MVP crowns despite multiple lower leg injuries which have resulted in him missing two games this season.
The NFL world is fully aware of the threat Mahomes poses to opposition defenses, which is keeping the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl contention off the back of his outrageous arm, having this year thrown 19 touchdowns while being intercepted on a minuscule 0.6% of his pass attempts.
Despite his first season dealing with serious injuries, Mahomes is intent on adding an extra mobility dimension to his game, producing 6.4 yards per rush attempt, which is a big jump from the 4.5 he averaged in 2018-19. Should that threat persist, there’s really no limit on how dangerous the former Texas Tech college star can become.
So long as Mahomes remains relatively healthy, his Chiefs will remain in the Super Bowl conversation in 2019, while it’s also worth remembering they hold a tie-break advantage over the rampaging Baltimore Ravens, courtesy of their Week 3 victory which Mahomes indeed dominated, throwing for 374 yards, three touchdowns and a 132.0 passer rating.
DAK PRESCOTT, Dallas Cowboys
TAB MVP Odds: $17
Not only does Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott’s 3,221 passing yards lead the NFL, but his 322.1 passing yards per game represents a Cowboys record, which is saying something for a franchise with five Super Bowl victories, and who have had the likes of Roger Staubach, Troy Aikman and Tony Romo under centre.
Incredibly, Prescott’s role at the epicentre of the game’s (statistically) very best offense hasn't been rewarded with a contract extension beyond season 2019, which remains one of the more confounding stories in all of US pro sports.
Through ten games this season, Prescott has the Cowboys leading the NFC East from day one and on the cusp of back-to-back division titles for the first time since 1996. This, despite a defense which has given him minimal support slipping to 20thin DVOA this season.
Prescott, meanwhile, has continued to electrify the Cowboys faithful while still waiting for his $90 million running mate, RB Ezekiel Elliot, to explode, with the former Ohio State star averaging a career-low 83.3 yards on the ground this season.
Prescott has made incredible strides in Dallas since being taken in the fourth round out of Mississippi State in 2016. When his next contract finally does arrive, expect it to be long and lucrative.
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