Inside the world of a Sports Data Analyst

Working at Stats Insider can often feel like stepping into Willy Wonka’s Chocolate Factory.

While, sure; there are no Oompa-Loompas performing exotic song and dance routines, or snotty little kids getting lost in sugary rivers of madness, where we do share similarities with the world's most famous shrine to confectionary is in terms of the multitude of sweet recipes we have cooking up in the realm of sports analytics, which go way beyond predicting the final score.

At Stats Insider our data-chocolatiers are crunching all sorts of numbers, penning all manner or words and dreaming up brilliant visual content which all contribute to making us the Australian leader where sports projections and data-focused analysis is concerned.

One of the people behind the Stats Insider data is senior AFL analyst, Greg Butyn.

Included in the many projects Greg has been working on lately is our expanded AFL futures projections, which is now encompassing Final Four, Final Eight, Minor Premiership as well as the percentage chance your team has of contesting this year's Grand Final. However, at any given hour of the day, you’re just as likely to find Greg crunching fantasy numbers for Fantasy Insider ahead of this weekend's AFL daily fantasy contests, or working through match and tournament simulations for the FIFA Women’s World Cup.

A couple of weeks ago, Greg was responsible for the launch of Stat’s Insider's AFL Sackometer, with 'the Sacko's' Wonka-like properties seemingly having an immediate effect with North Melbourne’s Brad Scott and Carlton's Brendan Bolton both gone from their posts within two weeks of its launch.

Stats Insider's James Rosewarne sat down with Greg to talk about his role at Stats Insider, as well as some of his views regarding sports analytics in general.

James Rosewarne: When did you start at Stats Insider? 

Greg Butyn: I started here about two months after Stats Insider set up the new office in Melbourne, which was actually only about 18 months ago.

JR: What was your academic background?

GB: I’m certainly a journeyman. My first degree was in Arts, majoring in Psychology, but at 22 I decided I didn’t like any of the career options that had opened up, and still didn’t know what I wanted to do so I went and did a degree in Economics.

JR: What advice would you give for people wanting to break into sports analytics?

GB: The future of sports analytics is mostly in coding. Lots of people have great ideas but very few have the ability to test or implement them properly. You also really do need to be a sports fanatic. There are practical things that can be missed if you’re only focusing on the data and not the game itself.

JR: There’s been a revolution of sorts, regarding sports analytics across all professional sport in North America. Do you feel that will happen in Australia, and what's needed to fast-track such a movement?

GB: It must happen. There’s simply too much information out there that us sports nerds of the world want to grab on to and create something from. Obviously, access to data has been a bit tighter so far in Australia compared to say, the US, but that’s beginning to change as leagues are realising how much third-party, engaging content can be generated by giving away something very simple.

JR: How does your 'AFL Futures' methodology differ, to say, putting together your Women’s World Cup Futures/projections? 

GB: A lot more data for starters. We know more about AFL teams than we do about international representative teams who might only play half a dozen times per year. But, from a technical point of view, the small Group Stage and then the ‘live-or-die’ reality of World Cup knock-outs become a lot more important when deciding on futures markets as the probabilities are spread out a lot more. One big upset in such a tournament can create a significant ripple effect on the projections.

JR: Futures projections throughout sports aren’t something you see much of across the sporting landscape. Why do you think that is?

GB: I think it’s harder for people to understand what the final outcome of an event might be if they’re just focusing on which teams are better than others, without taking into account what their fixture or schedule might be. It’s mostly just human nature to take a shortcut and say 'Team X' is better than 'Team Y' so they should be much bigger favourites.

JR: What would you consider the biggest differences when you go about projecting games for the coming day or weekend, as opposed to something longer term? 

GB: There’s really a bigger difference than most would think. Injuries being the biggest one. Just because a team is short-staffed this week, doesn’t mean they will be later in the season. Home ground advantage is another one, of course, as well as understanding what sort of position either team could be in at the end of a regular or home-and-away season. It might be they have home ground Finals already lined up, which will favour their futures predictions but might not affect their game this week.

JR: Would having access to significantly more data help or hinder your futures projections? 

GB: It can’t possibly hurt but you’ve also got to know what you can do with it. There are some sports where we’re lacking data and that is without a doubt holding us back, and there are other sports where the data exists, yet we just haven’t figured out a way to capitalise on that information yet.

JR: Thanks Greg.

GB: No probs.

And while Greg needs to tend to one of his creations, be sure to keep a look out for all of the wonderful surprises that continue to be rolled out at Stats Insider. Keep a particular eye out for our expanded Wimbledon coverage over the coming weeks as well as our unique, in-house rankings ahead of the grass court extravaganza.

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