Is Carlton Out of AFL Finals Contention in 2023?
Last updated: Jun 6, 2023, 2:10AM | Published: Jun 5, 2023, 7:58AM
Carlton's probability of making the AFL finals in 2023 has dropped to 18.2%.
According to Stats Insider's AFL futures model, after losing 66-42 to Melbourne in Round 12, Carlton is 13th overall in our top-eight probabilities.
The Blues are paying $6.60 at Betfair to make the 2023 AFL finals series, which is an implied probability of 15.2%.
Carlton has entered three of its last five games with an equal or better win probability per Stats Insider's AFL predictions, losing all of them.
Stats Insider's AFL expert says the next fortnight of footy could decide Carlton's finals aspirations.
"Carlton were given a higher pre-match winning probability than Brisbane and the Western Bulldogs and went in as a 50-50 chance against Sydney and failed to win any of those games," he said.
"In Round 13, Carlton plays Essendon before hosting Gold Coast at the MCG, two in-form teams that currently sit above the Blues. This makes the next two games vital if they are to mount any kind of finals challenge.
"Given the Blues are already six premiership points outside the top eight with the worst percentage of any team outside the bottom four, they need to win the next two games to have any kind of hope of bridging the gap."
Carlton plays Essendon at the MCG in Round 13.
MORE: 2023 AFL Premiership Probabilities
2023 AFL Top 8 Probabilities
| Team | Probability |
| Collingwood Magpies | 99.5% |
| Port Adelaide Power | 97.2% |
| Brisbane Lions | 96.7% |
| Melbourne Demons | 93.2% |
| Western Bulldogs | 75.6% |
| Geelong Cats | 73.9% |
| St Kilda Saints | 51.5% |
| Fremantle Dockers | 46.5% |
| Adelaide Crows | 44.6% |
| Essendon Bombers | 43.0% |
| Gold Coast Suns | 22.6% |
| Sydney Swans | 22.5% |
| Carlton Blues | 18.2% |
All probabilities are correct at the time of publication.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
