Is Collingwood the 2023 AFL Premiership Favourite?
Last updated: May 22, 2023, 11:44AM | Published: May 22, 2023, 7:33AM
Collingwood is the most likely team to win the 2023 AFL premiership.
According to Stats Insider's AFL futures model, after defeating Carlton 86-57 in Round 10, Collingwood has a 21.8% chance of winning the 2023 AFL premiership.
The Demons dropped to the second most likely team to win the flag at 20.9% after Melbourne lost 76-80 to Port Adelaide, while Brisbane is the third most likely team to win the 2023 AFL premiership at 18.5%.
The Magpies are also the most likely team to claim the AFL minor premiership with a 48.9% probability.
Collingwood heads into its clash with North Melbourne with the highest winning probability of any team in Round 11.
MORE: 2023 AFL Premiership Probabilities
2023 AFL Premiership Probabilities
| Team | Probability |
| Collingwood Magpies | 21.8% |
| Melbourne Demons | 20.8% |
| Brisbane Lions | 18.5% |
| Geelong Cats | 9.6% |
| Port Adelaide Power | 8.7% |
| Western Bulldogs | 8.3% |
| St Kilda Saints | 4.0% |
| Carlton Blues | 2.1% |
| Adelaide Crows | 1.6% |
| Essendon Bombers | 1.4% |
All probabilities are correct at the time of publication.
Essendon Rises To Eighth in Top 8 Probabilities
Essendon is the eighth-most likely team to make the 2023 AFL top eight.
The Bombers defeated Richmond 71-70 to level their premiership points with eighth-placed Adelaide, with Stats Insider's AFL futures model currently giving Essendon a 44.4% probability of making the top eight, narrowly ahead of Adelaide at 44.3%.
In further good news for the Bombers, Stats Insider's AFL strength of schedule gives Essendon the easiest run home of any team in 2023.
Essendon's next match is against the West Coast Eagles, with the Bombers having the second-highest win probability of any team heading into Round 11.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
