Is St Kilda the Best Team in the AFL?

St Kilda fans could not have wished for a better start to the second Ross Lyon era at Moorabbin. 

Defying most expectations and an overwhelmingly large injury list, the Saints have beaten Fremantle, the Western Bulldogs, Essendon, and Gold Coast to sit atop the AFL ladder after the first month of the season.

It has been an incredible ride to this point of the season, but the real question remains: is St Kilda the best team in the AFL?

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Back to the future for Ross, sort of

The Saints' style prides itself on the players outworking their opposition, ultimately grinding them to the ground, which allows them to run over the top in the second half. 

It starts with a classic feature of Ross Lyon's coaching: creating a strong defensive set-up that aims to stifle the opposition.

Last season, the opposition averaged 7.11 disposals per inside 50 against the Saints, and when they got it in there, they scored 43% of the time, which followed an average of 7.37 disposals per inside 50 and scoring 44% of the time in 2021.

After four weeks, St Kilda's opposition is averaging 7.80 disposals per inside 50 and scoring just 36% of the time. For reference, in 2015, Fremantle's opposition averaged 8.22 disposals per inside 50 and only averaged 43.2 inside 50s, meaning the scoring rate was higher but less effective.

St Kilda now is the fourth most likely team to make the top eight according to our predictive model, which says the Saints have a 75.4% chance to make the 2023 AFL finals.

The Saints sit typically deep, as is the case with any team coached by Lyon, but it's the fanatical pressure and energy up the ground that restrict transition scores and help slow down ball movement, giving defenders time to measure up.

Yet the high work rate isn't solely for the defensive pressure each line places on the opposition, but rather for the players to separate from their opponents and find space themselves – the Saints are the number one possession team by far in the competition so far, averaging 419 disposals per game, while their 112 marks also leads the league.

While we've seen the likes of West Coast in the past and Fremantle recently pick up a lot of cheap, uncontested ball, the numbers for the Saints don't necessarily feel unsubstantial.

St Kilda averages the most running bounces in the league, led by Jack Sinclair averaging three per game, and their run and use off half back thanks to Sinclair and Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera in particular is more incisive than in previous seasons.

Ross Lyon has adapted to the modern game in trying to put a variety of elite runners and users out of defence, which is a significant change to his peak Fremantle days, where only Michael Johnson averaged three rebound 50s per game, as a key position, ball chain mover.

Should we be concerned about the St Kilda offence?

We've always heard that defence wins premierships and ultimately, that’s what has brought Lyon great success in the past.

Yet when taking the Dockers to the 2015 Grand Final, despite having them average the fifth-fewest inside 50s in the league, Fremantle would score in 45% of their entries, which was comparable with the likes of Sydney, Richmond and the Bulldogs, who all played in the finals that year.

Despite the Dockers averaging an astonishing 27 points per game less than the eventual premiers, they were efficient enough going inside 50 to cause damage.

This season, the Saints have been the second-most accurate team kicking for goal, and are only scoring 39% of the time they enter the forward 50.

Of course, in three of the four games to start the season, St Kilda has scored at least 92 points, which is a winning score in most games.

However, it's an alarming combination, as we would expect there to be some sort of regression to the mean at some stage, and the underlying numbers indicate they simply aren't getting the opportunities when entering the forward arc.

In fact, it’s the second-worst percentage in the entire league, just eclipsing Richmond's offensive inefficiencies, and they've had more weather issues to contend with.

It's truly extraordinary just how well the Saints have performed given the players missing.

Jack Billings, Nick Coffield, Zak Jones, Max King, Dan McKenzie, and Tim Membrey haven't played yet, and Jack Steele has missed a couple of weeks. Their direct back-ups have all been injured too.

Billings and Membrey aren't far off, while Steele is set to return against Carlton in Round 6.

ooh yeah 🤌 pic.twitter.com/dzlaly0I7h

— St Kilda FC (@stkildafc) April 12, 2023

St Kilda is the fourth most likely team to finish inside the top four with our AFL predictive model, which gives the Saints a 41.4% probability of securing the double chance.

Despite being undefeated in 2023, the Saints desperately need an offensive target.

Anthony Caminiti emerged from the clouds and has done a superb job as a young player to offer some assistance. Zaine Cordy's efforts have been admirable, given this isn't what he was recruited to do.

Jack Higgins, Mitch Owens, and Jade Gresham are leading the team for marks inside 50 and indeed goals, but the two smaller players should be rotational flankers, and Owens is the young upstart with incredible potential as a third tall/midfield option.

Membrey and King will help provide structure. We know what Steele brings, and given the huge successes of Mason Wood and Brad Hill on the wings, expect Billings to play as a permanent half-forward.

However, while inclusions will inevitably help the structure of the team, playing like this with everyone back won't necessarily mean the team gets stronger. The inefficiency going inside 50 is real and adding the two key targets is only as good as service they get. 

Only Wood is rated above average by foot out of the players delivering the ball, Sinclair and Wanganeen-Milera are rated below average and everyone else is on the lesser side of the average range.

Incorporating the talent and adjusting the style accordingly is vital to success in 2023.

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So, are the Saints the real deal?

Playing Collingwood and Carlton in the next fortnight will be the real test of what's to come.

In bone dry conditions, the Magpies' frenetic style could tear the Saints apart, however Gather Round sees this contest being the last of six matches at Adelaide Oval, after a couple of days of rain. 

The Blues offer a different challenge, one where the Saints' defensive structure will be challenged by two elite forwards, which they haven't come across.

Full credit overall must go to the Saints and how they've negotiated through the first month of the season.

Sliding into wooden spoon contention may have been simple enough, but with a coach like Ross Lyon, the structure in this team is way too good to fall apart.

Ultimately, the Saints are playing a strong style and working harder than every other team in the league, applying pressure all over the ground and opening up in second halves.

The wins are covering up some issues at the club certainly and this sort of style, manic at times, could lead to the mix of veteran and youthful players tiring as the season wears on.

One would expect the Saints to continue playing competitive footy and then taper off after the bye, but this start to the season has elevated the club from potentially struggling to remaining in finals contention.

(Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)