The biggest winner of the 2019 AFL season has been the neutral fan.

With all the drama and countless plot twists this season has produced, the biggest gift of all has been the sheer level of depth among this year’s contenders.

The Stats Insider AFL Futures model has identified no less than six teams with a better than 6.5% chance of winning the AFL Premiership this year, while just two games presently split first and sixth on the ladder, indicating how close the competition is in 2019.

A further treat for the neutral fan is how diverse each of the leading teams are from both a game plan and list management perspective.

From Geelong’s top-heavy, star-studded list, to the 'Brisbane Babies,' the Tigers' ‘surge ball,’ to West Coast’s dizzying array of goalkickers, this fascinating AFL narrative has proven there is indeed a number of ways to skin a cat when it comes to winning this season.

Yet, in addition to all the colour and diversity on offer across the AFL landscape, it’s worth exploring what traits this year’s contenders share amongst premiership winners over the last two decades.

What makes this year’s crop fit the mould of an apparent contender, while what negative traits to do each possess which might result in 'pretender' status?

DEFENCE IS STILL KING

It’s one of the most over-used clichés in professional sports, but the old adage that 'defence wins championships' is one that absolutely holds weight where the AFL is concerned.

16 of the last 17 AFL Premiers have been ranked within the league’s Top 5 for scoring defence, with more than half (10 of the 17) ranked within the league’s Top 3.

2019 CONTENDERS 

Geelong, GWS, West Coast and Collingwood are all positioned within the league’s Top 4 relating to scoring suppression.

The Cats have been particularly solid on this front all year, conceding 91 total points less than the league's next best defence, belonging to the Giants.

Even amid Geelong’s post-bye swoon, which has seen them drop four of their last seven matches, the Cats’ defence hasn’t been the primary culprit, keeping their opponents to a very respectable 74.85 points per game during their slump.

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2019 PRETENDER

The Brisbane Lions and Richmond are ranked tenth and ninth respectively from a points-conceded perspective, which, on the face of it, suggests both would have to buck a twenty-year competition trend in terms of claiming an AFL Premiership while boasting such a middling defence.

With that said, both Richmond and Brisbane are in scintillating form, amidst six and seven-game winning streaks. 

Meanwhile, Richmond’s points-conceded stats are slightly misleading, with much of their damage inflicted early in the season, in the aftermath of Alex Rance’s ACL injury, when the Tigers were restructuring their backline. 

In Richmond’s current six-game win streak, the most they have conceded in a single game is just 70 points.

It’s a similar story during Brisbane‘s seven-game run, with the 80 points conceded against the Western Bulldogs in Round 20 the most they’ve given up since Round 9 against Adelaide. They have, however, given up 50 scoring shots over the last two weeks against Hawthorn and the Bulldogs - two teams seemingly unlikely to play AFL Finals in 2019.

LIVING INSIDE 50

Theoretically, it should be a given that the closer you have the ball to your goal, the higher likelihood of success, but it’s not until you drill into the numbers do we see how compelling the relationship is to premiership success.

An incredible ten of the last 12 AFL Premiers have been ranked in the league’s Top 3 from an inside 50 differential perspective. 

In fact, you have to go back to the Eagles' 2006 Premiership team to find one ranked outside the league’s Top 7 in this statistic.

So much of contemporary AFL is about getting the ball forward at all cost - aesthetics be damned - as well as being structurally sound defensively to make sure that when the ball does come out, your players are best positioned to win it and drive right back in.

It’s been the distinct calling card of so much of what Richmond has achieved over the past few years, and also what’s been driving force behind the Lions' 2019 resurgence.

2019 CONTENDERS

The Tigers and Lions are second and fourth in the competition, with respective +5.9 and +2.5 inside 50 differential numbers that marry perfectly with their respective 'surge ball' mentalities.

2019 PRETENDER 

Geelong is ranked just tenth for inside 50 differential in 2019, though perhaps the league’s most surprising  ‘pretender’ in this category is West Coast, who are ranked 15^th this season, conceding an average of 2.6 more inside 50's to their opponents each game.

To be fair to the Eagles (and it’s a theme we examined a few weeks ago), their game style is much more of a late nineties throwback, being much more concerned about rapid inside 50 entry than bunching numbers throughout the forward line. 

NO-ONE CARES ABOUT HIT-OUTS

When it comes to hit-outs you’ve got as much chance winning a premiership being sub-standard in this statistic than you are being good. 

The last nine AFL Premiers have averaged a 10^th place finish in hit out differential, with West Coast (2018), and Ben McEvoy's dominant Hawks (2015), propping up that number with fourth-place finishes in recent seasons.

Even then, the Eagle's ruck phenom, Nic Natanui, injured his knee half-way through the season leaving West Coast without his expert services throughout their premiership campaign. Even on Grand Final day, the Eagles demonstrated the diminishing value of hit-outs, losing the count to Collingwood, 57-29.  

2019 CONTENDERS

Once again the Pies - and particularly Brodie Grundy - are kings of the hit-out world with a +20.1 differential in 2019.

Adding weight to the ‘hit-outs are not important’ truthers out there is the fact that Melbourne and Gold Coast are ranked second and third for hit-out differential this season, yet have a combined 8-30 win-loss record on the season. They, of course, occupy the last two positions on the ladder.

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2019 PRETENDERS 

Well, we’re filing them under ‘pretenders’ for convenience sake, but it is interesting to note that of this year's flag contenders, the Tigers are performing worst from a hit-out differential perspective - ranked 15th in the league. 

Where were the Tigers ranked for hit-outs when they won the 2017 AFL Premiership? Dead last in the competition, conceding on average 13.9 hit-outs to their opponents each week. 

In addition, the Tigers lost the hit-out count on Grand Final day 55-28 to the Adelaide Crows. 

Hit-outs hey?

THE EARLY BIRD CATCHES THE WORM

A key metric that has defined premiers in recent seasons, has been the ability to jump out of the gates strong.

14 of the last 20 AFL Premierships have been won by teams ranked within the Top 5 for first-quarter performance. 

Nine have been ranked either first or second.

It's at this point Collingwood doesn't want to be reminded they blew a five-goal to two, quarter-time lead in the 2018 AFL Grand Final.

2019 CONTENDERS 

Geelong, Collingwood and West Coast have been brilliant first-quarter teams in 2019, though top-dog status is reserved for Richmond, who has won 14 first-quarters this season while boasting a massive 165.17 percentage in the process. The Tigers are conceding a meagre 14.05 first-quarter points per game this season.

2019 PRETENDERS

The Giants. In fact, GWS is ranked 11^th in terms of first-quarter performance, having actually lost more (10) first quarters than they've won (9). The Giants have won the first quarter in just three of their last eight games.

The Premiers of the last twenty years have, of course, all been very different teams, possessing vastly different game styles. 

What is compelling, however, are the statistical commonalities which define them all. 

By shining a light on this year's premiership contenders we get a better idea of just who might be up for a real premiership push in 2019, while perhaps getting an insight into who might be left by the wayside.

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