“It’s never fun being kicked in the Bryson”: Eight bets for the Byron Nelson

Coming off a double bad-beat weekend, with a major just around the corner next week, enthusiasm for golf is struggling to get into third gear at Club 20 this afternoon. 

Callum Hill looked like he was finally going to pay us off on the Euro Tour last Sunday night, only to completely sh*t the bed in the final round, whilst Rory finally saluted in a week where we bet him for First Round Leader, specced him to win but forgot to pull the trigger on the 41-1 after the first round. 

Yep. It’s never fun being kicked in the Bryson. Pretty flat is an understatement!

Adding to the malaise is this week’s PGA Tour event in Texas, the Byron Nelson. 

It’s at a new course where we don’t have a lot of data to crunch - the Par 72 TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas. 

All indications are that it will be a shootout this week, with a sub-20 winner very likely despite some windy forecast throughout the weekend. 

With four Par 5’s and potentially two reachable Par 4’s, it is difficult to really love guys down the board when you have Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm up at the top at stupidly short odds. 

The final nail in the enthusiasm coffin for this week is the fact that AFL Teams will all be released on Thursday for the first time in 2021 from next week onwards  instead of drip fed all weekend, meaning we can ice some drinks and rip into some really thorough research ahead of the first proper AFL betting yarn of 2021

So it will be a slightly recued card this week, taking four guys Outright (ew) and another four for First Round Leader (ew). 

Prioritising a mix of Texas form, ball striking, recent form and taking what I think is an odds break, then marrying with bent specialists and just hoping they can catch fire on the greens.

Majority of guys in this full 156-man field will be coming in sub 70 each round, players will need a white hot putter to get a look at those sub 66’s needed to contend. 

Apart from the below bets, if Jon Rahm is in the Rory zone after Round 1 (3-5 shots back and out into that 25-40 range) I'll be adding him to the card after the opening round, particularly as he has the favorable PM/AM tee draw.

Outright Bets

• Jason Day @ 61-1 / 15-1

• Harris English @ 61-1 / 15-1

• Charles Howell III @ 81-1 / 20-1

• Doc Redman @ 176-1 / 44-1

First Round Leader Bets

• Hideki Matsuyama @ 31-1 / 7.50

• Harris English @ 61-1 / 15-1

• Charles Howell III @ 67-1 / 17-1

• Doc Redman @ 100-1 / 25-1

There are two green smileys on the Stats Insider Tournament Predictions page right now under Jon Rahm (8.50-1) and Daniel Berger (17-1) and whilst I personally agree they set up amazingly well for this course, when guys are this short I do like to wait and hope for a sluggish opening round and then bet them at a much better price.

Both these guys are capable of back to back low 60’s on the weekend to win it so if you are (foolishly) going against the SI Model’s green smiley plays, don’t be put off if one or both are 4-6 shots back from first because that’s the scenario we want with this kind of strategy. 

Hoping for a bit more luck on the golf front after repeatedly getting kicked in the Bryson these last few weeks, enjoy the golf and keep an eye out for the footy bets on Club 20 Twitter through the weekend.

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