NRL Finals - Key Moments That Shaped Week 1

The rules stay the same and the size of the field and the ball don't change, but finals footy is different from the regular season.

As a coach that knows better than almost any other, Craig Bellamy was recently asked about the difference:

"You need to do the things you've been doing well throughout the year consistently well for longer periods in finals."

It's the little things that matter most and with the pressure and fatigue that comes with September footy, they can make or break a teams chances at victory.

Here we take a look at where a few of those little moments in big games shaped Week 1 of the finals.

Thriller In Melbourne

Storm v Rabbitohs last Friday night was one of the best games of the season and it came through in the numbers.

You could circle any number of 'key moments' but the last 11 minutes housed three in particular.

With the scores locked at 22-all in the 69th minute, the Storm had a 56.9% win probability. Then disaster struck. A Josh Addo-Carr forward pass turned into a Cameron Murray try and a 28-22 Rabbitohs lead. In the space of 90 seconds, the Storm had dropped from 56.9% to 21.2%.

As the clock ticked, the number continued to fall until Addo-Carr made up for his mistake. His kick inside to Cheyse Blair levelled things up and put the Storm back in the box seat with five minutes to play (57.5% win-prob).

With the game on the line, Cameron Munster put the icing on the cake with a field goal for the Storm to enter the final two minutes with a 91% win probability.

Errors & Injuries

As underdogs on the road playing in their first finals game since 2011, the Warriors needed a couple of things to go their way. As it turns out, not many did. In fact, there were two crucial occasions in which they ensured things would go against them in the first half. 

Adam Blair's ill-advised offload at the 17:51 minute mark while up 12-2 is the first that springs to mind. When Blair handed over possession with the Warriors hot on attack, they were a 63.5% chance of winning at the time. 

The Panthers went on to kick a 40/20 and score on the back of it to put an end to the Warriors momentum and cut their win-probability to 54.3%.

Down 14-12 after 26 minutes, the Warriors were still a chance. However, that all changed on the back of a simple Solomone Kata error in conjunction with Roger Tuivasa-Sheck limping off. Their win probability took a dive to 44.9% and never recovered.

Three Bombed Tries

The Sharks gave the Roosters a run for their money on Saturday night and had they executed the way we know they can, would have caused a monumental upset.

Instead of having the week off to rest and relax, three bombed tries have Sharks preparing for a do-or-die showdown with the Panthers on Friday night.

The first came in the 27th minute with the scores level at 6-all and the Sharks a 44% chance of winning at the time. 

Down 18-12 in the 58th minute with just a 24.5% win probability, the Sharks looked dead and buried before two more blown chances to score confirmed their defeat.

In the 61st minute (18.6% win-prob), Valentine Holmes threw the ball behind Josh Dugan in a try-scoring position.

In the 71st minute (3.3% win-prob), Luke Lewis fumbled the ball over the line in an attempt to level the scores.

Either one of those two plays could have turned the game on its head, but the Sharks couldn't execute when it mattered most and it ended up costing them the win.

Korbin Comes On

Not many - if any - Broncos players will have sat in the sheds after their game on Sunday happy with their performance. But Korbin Sims will have had the biggest pit in his stomach. 

He had a shocker to record three penalties, five missed tackles and a try cause in his 19 first-half minutes. To make matters worse, his brother Tariq scored three tries for the other side while also breaking the line three times and breaking six tackles. 

Korbin ran onto the field in the 21st minute just as Tariq scored his first try to leave the Broncos just 10-8 ahead. At the time, the Broncos still had a 67.8% win probability.

By the time he left the field in the 52nd minute, the Dragons were 34-12 ahead and just a 7.7% chance at completing the comeback.

Key Moments For Week 2

When it comes to Sharks v Panthers on Friday night, Cronulla will be looking to avoid any similarities from their key moments in Week 1. They got away with blowing try-scoring chances in Week 1 by earning the right for a second life. Their season is over if they execute that poorly again.

For Penrith, James Maloney holds the key. Last week it was a 40/20 that broke the Panthers out of a slump and kickstarted their revival. He will be called upon again to provide the key moment that wins them the game.

With the form Souths are in, the Red V can't afford to wait for an opposing player to implode in Rabbitohs v Dragons on Saturday. The Dragons' key moment will come early while looking to apply pressure to the scoreboard and forcing the heavily favourited Rabbitohs (72% chance) to play from behind.

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