Key Stats That Shape This Week's NRL Finals

Players and coaches have 24 games worth of material to churn through in the buildup to Week 1 of the finals. Video analysts at every club are working overtime to try and find that little something that might give them the edge.

However, if these finals teams are to perform the little tricks they have stored up their sleeve, they need to lay the foundations and master what they can control first.

Here, we take a look at a key stat for each team heading into the first weekend of September. One each team have full control over, and one that can make or break their Week 1 result.

Storm v Rabbitohs

Storm key stat: 4.5 handling errors

There's something about this Storm side dropping the ball in 2018. After averaging just 3.5 handling errors per game in 2017 (fourth fewest), the Storm are at the top of this list this season coughing the ball up 4.5 times per game.

While they have improved in that department after a horror start to the season, teams have still been able to rattle them and force errors through good line speed and pressure.

Teams will have picked up on the fact that six of the Storm's eight losses have come after dropping the ball more than five times in the match. The Model has them as a 51% chance at winning on Friday night, but that number will take a tumble every time they cough it up. 

Rabbitohs key stat: 1,599 running metres

The Rabbitohs were at their barnstorming best last week as they set the record for the biggest gap in running metres by outrunning the Tigers by 1,317 metres.

Already leading the NRL in metres per game, the Rabbitohs went way past their 1,599-metre average to end with 2,197 last week. Needless to say, they won the match - something that tends to happen when they crack the 1,600-metre mark.

In the eight games the Rabbitohs have run for more than 1,600 metres, they've won six of them. 

Panthers v Warriors

Panthers key stat: 9.43 penalties conceded

Penrith backrower Isaah Yeo mentioned that he hopes the penalties will "drop away a bit" now that it's finals time. He hopes that because no side concedes more penalties than the Panthers at 9.43 per game.

However, he needn't hope. All the Panthers need to do is stop giving away foul play penalties. They are far and away the leader in foul play penalties with 43 for the season. Meanwhile, the Warriors only have 18. If they're to get their current 47% chance of winning up to 50%, they must cut the needless penalties. 

Warriors key stat: 9.13 errors per game

Remarkably, the Warriors lead the NRL in offloads with 12.67 per game while also making the second-fewest errors. They learned to respect the football in 2017 (7.5 offloads per game) to kick on and become the kings of second-phase footy in 2018.

Two times this season they've recorded over 20 offloads in a game. They've managed 16+ in another five. Just two of those offload-heavy games ended in a loss.

The Warriors can ask as many questions in attack as any side in the NRL. By promoting the football and forcing the Panthers into making extra tackles this week, they'll put themselves in a good position extend their season another seven days (53% chance).

Roosters v Sharks

Roosters key stat: 15 points conceded

All the talk during the preseason was about what Cooper Cronk and James Tedesco would do to the Roosters attack. While the pair have played a significant role in getting them to 22.58 points per game (4th), it's the Chooks defence that lead them to being crowned minor premiers.

No team concedes fewer points in the NRL than the Roosters and it will be their key to victory this week. The Sharks have started to string a few good attacking outings together to average 32 points over their last three. If the Roosters can get that closer to the 15 points per game they concede on average in 2018, they'll have no problem scoring enough themselves to win (51% chance).

Sharks key stat: 50%+ Possession

The Sharks are a side that loves to play grind it out footy. They know that's a lot easier to do with the ball in hand so it's no surprise to see they are second in the NRL in possession at 51.67%.

If they can mount pressure by retaining and controlling possession, they'll significantly increase their current 49% chance of winning.

Cronulla have only lost eight games all season. Six of those came when they ended the match with less than 51.67% possession. In the 12 games they've finished above 51.67% possession, they've won 10.

Possession = points is hardly an unknown positive correlation in rugby league, but it applies especially to the Sharks.

Broncos v Dragons

Broncos key stat: 534.67

He often doesn't get the credit he deserves, but Anthony Milford has arguably the best kicking game in the NRL.

With 8,461 metres at an average of 354 metres per game, Milford's boot is one of the main reasons the Broncos have been able to hang around in the middle of the table and earn their home final. His 615 metres in Round 24 were a career high as the Broncos registered a whopping 991 metres for the match. They've managed to kick for over 500 metres 14 times this season, winning 12 of them.

Whether they're forcing the opposition to play out of the corner, or applying pressure through the 34 dropouts they've forced (6th), the Broncos kicking game plays a considerable role in the final result. 

Dragons key stat: 1,487 running metres

Up until Round 11, the Dragons were leading the competition in running metres with 1,628 metres per game. Their representative-laden back row was causing havoc, Paul Vaughan was having a career year, and Leeson Ah Mau was the NRL's best bench forward.

However, in the 13 games since, the Red V has managed just 1,487 metres per game which would have them sit in at ninth across the whole season. 

The Dragons need to re-find their effort and vigour. They're a much more effective side when their forward pack is striking fear into the other. It's their key, not just this week, but for the whole finals series and beyond.

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