La Liga Betting Preview: Week 12

The early La Liga plays netted four out of seven including some good prices, so we’ve got a bit of house money to play with this week as clubs look to establish some momentum and an advantageous position heading into the next international break. 

Please note: these are author opinions, not predictions by the Stats Insider La Liga Model. For those, you can visit our La Liga Hub.

Who: Getafe v Valencia

When: Sun 11 Nov, 2:15am EDT

The Play: Over 2.5 goals / Both to Score - YES

Hard to have either of these based on recent form, but can’t ignore the likes of +9% for over 2.5 and +6% for both teams to score! The one encouraging stat is that three of the last four fixtures between these sides have had both score with totals of 3-4 in each. However, with Getafe’s last ten at home going unders, as well as Valencia’s last eight in total, we can assume that the bookies are keeping these two plays very safe - perhaps a bit too safe. Do with it as you wish - if you love the generous prices, you’ve gotta have a go. 

Who: Atletico Madrid v Athletic Bilbao

When: Sun 11 Nov, 4:30am EDT

The Play: Over 2.5 goals / Both to Score - YES

Take this warning: the model continues to find value in Atletico games being high scoring because they continue to produce an abnormal amount of low scoring games: just one of their matches this season has gone overs - a 3-0 drubbing of the struggling Huesca. With the attacking options they have, they should simply be scoring more, but continue to make clean sheets a priority (six so far this season). 

So when the model is producing +11% for over 2.5 and +9% for both teams to score, you can be sure the bookies are trying desperately not to take money on the opposites. I prefer the BTS play, as although Atletico have conceded just one goal at home this season, Bilbao have scored in all but one game on the road and are sure to be a test here.

Who: Girona v Leganes

When: Sun 11 Nov, 6:45am EDT

The Play: Over 2.5 goals

Leganes have lost all but one of their last 13 league matches on the road and Girona should be far too strong for them. I probably feel more confident in backing Girona, but worth mentioning the orange smiley available (+5%) for the over 2.5 goals play. Leganes’ last five games have gone unders but they come to Girona where four of the last five have instead gone overs, so at this stage, you’re probably backing Girona to put a few past them - as they did in this fixture last season (3-0 in February).

Who: Alaves v Huesca

When: Sun 11 Nov, 10:00pm EDT

The Play: Over 2.5 goals

Four of the last five fixtures (inc. friendlies) between these sides have fallen over 2.5 and you’re getting a +5% edge to kick your Sunday night off. Huesca are in a horrible rut, having scored just once in their last three away games. They’ll need to seriously turn things around to find the back of the net against an Alaves side who have conceded just three goals at home this season, including a clean sheet in a victory over Real Madrid. However, five of their last six on the road have gone overs, so the value is there if you fancy Alaves doing the bulk of the scoring.

Who: Rayo Vallecano v Villarreal

When: Mon 12 Nov, 4:30am EDT

The Play: Over 2.5 goals / Both to Score - YES

We end the weekend with yet again some value to be found in a potentially high scoring encounter, with orange smileys presented for over 2.5 goals (+7%) and both to get on the board (+5%). Despite winning just once this season, Rayo Vallecano have managed to score in 9/11 including all five home games. 

The model likes the price on offer for them to continue the trend against a Villarreal side which has shipped five in their last two away games, albeit against top-six La Liga teams. Villarreal have also failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five league games, and five of the last six competitive fixtures between these sides have produced three or more goals. Solid.

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