La Liga Punting Preview: Week 8
Last updated: Oct 5, 2018, 8:14AM | Published: Oct 5, 2018, 5:05AM
THE GAME: Athletic Bilbao v Real Sociedad
WHEN: Sat 6 Oct, 5:00am EST
THE PLAY: Over 2.5 total goals
Athletic Bilbao return home to a willing crowd after their 1-1 draw at the Camp Nou and will be full of confidence. Girona and Leganés both lost immediately after getting results against Barcelona but Bilbao will enjoy the luxury of facing a squad absolutely stripped out by injuries and suspensions.
Real Sociedad have managed to find the net on 6/7 occasions (including 4/4 away) in spite of this, so if they can’t get an upset win on the road we fancy them to help the total score top the 2.5 line. If you’re with us, you’re currently snapping up a +4% edge.
THE GAME: Getafe CF v Levante
WHEN: Sun 7 Oct, 12:15am EST
THE PLAY: Over 2.5 total goals
It’s a case of low scoring vs high scoring and with the model showing a 4% edge towards the over 2.5, we’re happy to lean towards the latter. Getafe have been trying to grind out their results, averaging just ten shots on goal a game and conceding just ten.
Levante have shown a much more aggressive approach (averaging 13 shots for and 19 against) which has resulted in all but one of their league matches going over 2.5 goals. Getafe haven’t taken on a leaky defence such as Levante (or the newly promoted sides) yet, so within the comforts of home, this is a fantastic opportunity for Rodriguez and Molina (and probably Mata off the bench) to fill their boots.
THE GAME: Alavés v Real Madrid
WHEN: Sun 7 Oct, 3:30am EDT
THE PLAY: Alavés-draw double chance
It’s always a very brave play publicly potting Real Madrid but one of this model’s strengths to date has been to identify where the price for the favourite is just not worth taking. We have another example here, with Real Madrid (-5%) now on a winless run of three games with their loss in Moscow during the week.
They’re still top-two but have won just 4/7 so we’re keen to have a small stake on them failing to take three points again. Alavés haven’t beaten Madrid at home since 1930/31 but haven’t lost at home yet this season. With Lopetegui’s men struggling, this could be their best chance yet.
THE GAME: Leganés v Rayo Vallecano
WHEN: Sun 7 Oct, 5:45am EDT
THE PLAY: Over 2.5 goals / Both Teams to Score
So much value in this match that it’s almost worth getting up early on a Sunday morning for (or watching when you stumble home…). These sides haven’t butted heads in a competitive format in 15 years, and they’ll both have been targeting this fixture as an opportunity for a rare win, so expect an all-out tussle.
Eight of the 13 fixtures involving either team have produced 3+ goals and both sides have scored in eight, so the stats support the model here. With Vallecano conceding 2+ in their last three games, this is a great opportunity for Leganés to add to it. If you’re a HT-FT punter, Leganes have gone draw-loss in five of their last seven games.
THE GAME: Atletico Madrid v Real Betis
WHEN: Mon 8 Oct, 1:15am EDT
THE PLAY: Over 2.5 goals / Both Teams to Score
The best value of the La Liga weekend is saved for Sunday night, where an improving Atletico Madrid return home from a trip to Real Madrid. The stats suggest a low-scoring game: Atletico have kept eight clean sheets in their last ten against Real Betis, while the visitors have six clean sheets from their last eight LL away matches.
But Atletico have been firing up front since their win at Monaco, with seven goals from four matches, and Real Betis have been accounting for some fairly weak attacks of late. A massive 7% edge for both teams to score and for over 2.5 makes for a solid double-play here.
