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Left, Right or Centre: How NRL Teams Will Structure Their Defence In 2022

The hype videos are in circulation and fizzing the punters up for the 2022 NRL season.

Cutout passes, super speed, acrobatic tries and big hits are what come to mind when thinking about what might happen over the next 30 weeks. However, it's the little things, the one-percenters, particularly in defence, that will go a long way to deciding who lifts the Provan-Summons Trophy in October.

It's not the most glamorous part of rugby league but history suggests it's the most important

With Top 8 predictions doing the rounds and premiership tips being recorded, it's a good time to look at the defensive side of things ahead of Round 1.

RELATED: Betting Ahead- Spying The Early Top-4 NRL Value

Broncos

2021 Try Locations: Left - 39%, Middle - 26%, Right 35%

The Brisbane Broncos diabolical defence of 2020 which conceded 31.2 points per game improved ever so slightly to 29 points per game in 2021. It's somewhat encouraging that a struggling side like the Broncos could concede fewer points in a season where points were up overall.

Some consistency on the edges is the next step to improvement. The centre and edge backrow positions have seen too many new faces too often in 2021. Kurt Capewell's experience will lock down one side while it is hoped that Jordan Riki makes the right-edge his own this season. If Capewell and Riki can be named for 20+ games, we'll see a much-improved Broncos defence.

Punters- At TopSport, the season wins market has been set at 10.5 where Brisbane is concerned. 

Raiders

2021 Try Locations: Left - 32%, Middle - 20%, Right 47%

The 2021 Canberra Raiders defence didn't pack quite the same punch as it did a year earlier.

Becoming one of the best defensive teams in the competition to concede only 15.8 points per game in 2020, the Raiders failed to crack the Top 8 in 2021 after allowing 24.1 points per game.

Combinations played a big part. George Williams leaving and injuries to others forced Ricky Stuart into rotating through his squad and the result show in the dip in defence. Encouragingly, they performed well in the middle of the field. It's the 47 tries allowed through the right edge (third-most in the NRL) that is an issue Stuart will need to fix up for Round 1.

Punters- At TopSport, the Raiders are paying $21 to bring the first premiership back to the capital since 1994.

Bulldogs

2021 Try Locations: Left - 36%, Middle - 28%, Right 36%

At least they're consistent, right?

Decidedly average across the field, the Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs allowed 36% of the tries they conceded down the left and 36% down the right.

There isn't much we can take into this season given the turnover in players. This is a new group and the expectation is for them to improve. Eventually...

A new group means new combinations and it takes time for players to learn the movements of their inside man. 

"Cohesion remains a significant yet still grossly under-appreciated part of the best-performing teams, and the Bulldogs have a long way to go in that department." - How To Profit From NRL Terribleness

Punters- The Doggies are paying $10 at TopSport to win a 2nd consecutive wooden spoon. 

Sharks

2021 Try Locations: Left - 43%, Middle - 27%, Right 30%

The Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks went through five different centres last year and start 2022 with another in Ronaldo Mulitalo. The young winger has been installed on a left edge that conceded 42 tries last season - 43% of the Sharks' total tries conceded.

Centre is a difficult position to learn. They're asked to make quick decisions out wide and are often the difference between a good and bad defensive edge.

Mulitalo has the tools to be a good defensive centre. He's big, loves contact and has a bit of mongrel in him. However, expecting him to step straight in and lock down the leaky left edge is a big ask. Opposition teams are sure to test that side of the field early in the season.

Punters- At TopSport, the season wins market has been set at 12.5 where the Sharks are concerned. 

Titans

2021 Try Locations: Left - 41%, Middle -22%, Right 38%

The Gold Coast Titans finished in the middle of the pack conceding 24.3 points per game in 2021.

Neither good nor terribly bad, the tries came through them at a relatively even rate both left and right. However, it's the poor periods in which they switched off and let the opposition pile up points that caught them out during the year.

No Titans fan needs reminding of the 22-0 lead they had over the Broncos after 16 minutes before losing the game 36-28. Their close loss to the Sydney Roosters, while in reverse, carried a lot of the same trends.

Like others, new combinations in the spine are a concern. So is the organisation of the line rookie fullback Jayden Campbell can provide from fullback.

Regardless of who is linked up with who, it's important the Titans remove the 15-20 minute blocks they allow the opposition to run riot. The new rules will help them stop the flow a little bit in 2022, but not enough to return to the Top 8 with 10 wins.

Punters- At TopSport, the Titans are paying $2.1 to play finals in 2022. 

Sea Eagles

2021 Try Locations: Left - 37%, Middle - 21%, Right 41%

It's on the defensive side of the ball that the Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles struggled to keep up with the top teams in the competition throughout 2021. While the Panthers and Storm kept opposition teams to less than 13 points per game and the Rabbitohs improved as the year went on, the Sea Eagles conceded 21.3 points per game - significantly more than the genuine premiership contenders.

They are well-equipped in the centres with Morgan Harper and Brad Parker both strong on the defensive side of the ball. Haumole Olakau'atu and Josh Schuster will improve with the experience they gained last year, too.

Nobody is concerned about what the Sea Eagles do with the ball. It's the time without it that will determine their premiership credentials in September.

Punters- At TopSport, Reuben Garrick is paying $2.6 to be the NRL's top point scorer in 2022.

Storm

2021 Try Locations: Left - 33%, Middle - 17%, Right 49%

A surprise to nobody, the Melbourne Storm finished the 2021 NRL season as a top defensive team.

They know that defensive wins premierships and put themselves in a position to do so every year. While they came up short in the preliminary final, it was an uncharacteristically clunky and disjointed attack that was their undoing, not leaking points.

It starts in the middle for Melbourne. Jesse Bromwich and Christian Welch are two of the best defensive middles in the game and it showed in the 11 tries conceded through the centre-third - the fewest in the NRL.

Melbourne's right side allowed through 49% of their total tries. That might look like a big number but the one that counts, 31 tries conceded, is the third-fewest of all 16 clubs.

Punters- At TopSport, Melbourne are paying $2.75 to qualify for their 5th Grand Final in 7 seasons. 

Knights

2021 Try Locations: Left - 37%, Middle - 19%, Right 44%

The Newcastle Knights attacked ended up 15th in the competition last year. However, their 7th-ranked defence conceding 24 points per game was enough to earn them a finals spot.

It's still shocking to think a side scoring 17.9 points per game could play finals football, but if there is ever proof that even an average defence is good enough to be in Top 8 contention, the 2021 Knights are it.

They will need to improve if they're to climb the ladder in 2022. The early injuries to Daniel Saifiti, Hymel Hunt and Jayden Brailey certainly don't help to start. However, they've shown an ability to get into the grind and defend their way to victory at various times throughout the last three seasons and might be able to rely on that until the troops begin to arrive. 

Punters- At TopSport, the Knights are paying $2.8 about the prospect of playing finals for a 3rd straight season. 

Cowboys

2021 Try Locations: Left - 37%, Middle - 20%, Right 43%

The North Queensland Cowboys defence performed so poorly in 2021 that coach Todd Payten has benched their most influential attacking player for a better option in defence.

The Cowboys conceded a whopping 31.2 points per game last season. They gave up on that side of the ball on their way to losing 11 of their last 12 matches. For all of the flare this side can provide with the ball in hand, it's for nothing when the points are flowing faster the other way.

Scott Drinkwater is an excellent attacking player and his 17 try assists were crucial to how the Cowboys used the ball last season. His 92 missed tackles, on the other hand, ended up as the most by any player in the competition. Payten has installed Tom Dearden - a superior half defensively - into the side for Round 1.

It's going to take a lot more than one halfback to fix the worst defence in the NRL, but it's a clear indication of their intent to start this season.

Punters- At TopSport, the season wins market has been set at 7.5 where the Cowboys are concerned. 

Eels

2021 Try Locations: Left - 35%, Middle - 14%, Right 51%

The Parramatta Eels ended up finishing 4th in defence conceding 18.7 points per game in 2021. While a different game and with points increasing across the competition overall, it's significantly worse than the 14.4 points conceded in 2020.

We don't know exactly what impact the new rules will have on scoring in 2022 just yet. However, the Eels are in a promising position after allowing only 12 tries through the middle in all of last season - Melbourne is the one team that managed fewer with 11.

Brad Arthur has much of the same squad to choose from this season which is another tick in the 'promising' box. The cohesion developed by spending years together will only help them defensively.

Like the Rabbitohs, we can be fairly confident that the Eels will find points most weeks. It's closing the gap on the Storm (13 points conceded per game) and Panthers (11.6) that they need to focus on in 2022.

Punters- At TopSport, the Eels are paying $1.50 to make the finals for what'd be a 5th time in 6 seasons. 

Panthers

2021 Try Locations: Left - 34%, Middle - 32%, Right 34%

It comes up at this time every year, but here we go again: Defence wins Premierships.

Playing with the best defence in the competition scoring 11.6 points per game, the Penrith Panthers lifted the Provan-Summons Trophy. It's the 15th time in the last 16 years that the premiers have played with a top-three defence.

In fact, Penrith's effort in 2021 is the second-best mark in NRL history.

*Top 20 defences since 1998 (Premiers in yellow)

They have lost a couple of key players for this season. Kurt Capewell is a significant loss defensively and a rookie in Izack Tago has been installed in an all-important centre position. Still, expect the Panthers to be towards the top of the pile again in 2022.

Punters- At TopSport, the season wins market has been set at 17.5 for the reigning champs.

Rabbitohs

2021 Try Locations: Left - 29%, Middle - 26%, Right 45%

The South Sydney Rabbitohs will have circled the second half of the 2021 season as the way they want to defend moving forward.

Throughout a genuine season of two halves, the Rabbitohs leaked 22.9 points per game across the opening 12 rounds. Allowing just 14.2 points through them per game up to the NRL Grand Final, the Bunnies finished as the third-best defensive team in the competition conceding 18.3 points per game.

The 45% of total tries conceded down the right edge last year is slightly concerning. However, Campbell Graham has made significant strides defensively at centre and having the mobile Keaon Koloamatangi beside him could see South Sydney's fortunes change down that side of the field. It won't be a surprise to see the Rabbitohs' right side become one of the better defensive edges in the competition.

From there it comes down to consistency for the Rabbitohs. If they can pick up where they left off in 2021 defensively, they can be confident in contending for the premiership without Wayne Bennett and Adam Reynolds.

Punters- At TopSport, the Grand Final runners up are paying $2.15 to make the top4 in 2022.

Dragons

2021 Try Locations: Left - 34%, Middle - 24%, Right 42%

The St. George Illawarra Dragons have turned over a large chunk of their roster and made some interesting decisions along the way.

Top defensive edge forward Tariq Sims has missed out on selection for Round 1.

Poor lateral mover and goal-line defensive liability Aaron Woods will start in the season opener.

Zac Lomax is one of the better defensive centres and a full season from him will help bring down the 45 tries conceded down that side in 2022. However, there's a good chance those tries saved on the right are scored down the left where Moses Suli takes up his spot after moving from the Sea Eagles.

The Dragons conceded 25.7 points per game in 2021 but have made a lot of changes to the squad for this year. Whether or not they are good changes remains to be seen.

Punters- At TopSport, the Dragons are paying $5 to collect a wooden spoon in 2022. 

Roosters

2021 Try Locations: Left -24%, Middle - 35%, Right 40%

It's quite incredible that the Sydney Roosters could lose so many players to injury, be forced to throw players onto the field out of position every other week, and still rank in the top half of the NRL in defence conceding 21.3 points per game (6th).

Josh Morris commanded a left edge that let through only 24 tries all season. His retirement is going to have an impact on how that side of the field defends. However, with players returning elsewhere on the field, the expectation is for the Roosters to put themselves back into the top four both on the ladder and in defence this season.

Punters- At TopSport, the season wins market has been set at 16.5 for the Roosters.

Warriors

2021 Try Locations: Left - 36%, Middle - 23%, Right 41%

Chopping and changing the 17 every week makes life difficult for a defensive coach and Justin Morgan struggled to implement the sort of systems that could improve the Warriors on that side of the ball.

Only the Broncos and Bulldogs (both 36) used more players throughout the year than the Warriors with 35 different faces running onto the field in 2021. There is hope with Nathan Brown claiming "what we don’t want is chopping and changing. We feel we’ve gone with the best of what we’ve seen so far this year."

Kodi Nikorima's start at five-eighth is sure to factor into opposition game plans. He's a poor edge defender and somebody opposition halves will look to isolate in the line. Brown does have the option to play Chanel Harris-Tavita - one of the best defensive halves in the competition - there once he fills in for Reece Walsh at fullback in Round 1, though.

While Brown doesn't want to chop and change, he might have to if the Warriors leak too many points early in the season.

Punters- At TopSport, the Warriors are paying $7 to collect a wooden spoon in 2022. 

Tigers

2021 Try Locations: Left - 38%, Middle - 24%, Right 38%

Scoring points is rarely an issue for the Wests Tigers. It is more to do with their eagerness in attack than perfectly crafted moves or well-executed shapes. Regardless, it's all for nothing when conceding 29.8 points per game. 

Playing tough is meant to be a hallmark of Michael Maguire-coached sides but only the Cowboys conceded more points per game in 2021.

It's impossible to look into the minds of players as they run around on the field. It's all a guessing game from the outside. But from the outside, the Tigers looked disinterested when the opposition had possession last year.

Coaches regularly talk about attitude and application when it comes to defence. We need to see it in Round 1 as the Tigers take on a Storm side who thrashed them 66-16 the last time the two clubs met.

Punters- At TopSport, the season wins market has been set at 7.5 for the Tigers.

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Jason Oliver

As far as Jason is concerned, there is no better time of year than March through June. An overlap of the NBA and NRL seasons offer up daily opportunities to find an edge and fund the ever-increasing number of sports streaming services he subscribes to. If there's an underdog worth taking in either code, he'll be on it.

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