Lexus Melbourne Cup Preview

The Victoria Derby turned out to be another successful feature race for the SI model with our third and fourth selections filling out the quinella. We got some feedback from one follower of the racing model who puts our top four into boxed exactas and trifectas and was very happy with the $195 dividend (VIC TAB) for the Extra Brut-Stars Of Carrum exacta!

Hopefully he can repeat that performance on the Melbourne Cup, with the ‘race that stops the nation’ continuing to break records for TAB pools and resulting in some very healthy exotic dividends regardless of the results. 

If you’re going to the track, take an umbrella: the bureau has forecasted some heavy downpours and flash flooding for the early morning which could push the track into the soft range, though it won’t be anything like Everest day in Sydney! Yucatan representative Nick Williams described the track as “ridiculously firm” on Derby Day, so it could remain a soft (4) even after some heavy rain.

CHECK OUT OUR MELBOURNE CUP DAY RATINGS

Expecting RUNAWAY to take the lead from gate 12 with CROSS COUNTRY, ROSTROPOVICH and local hope ACE HIGH pushing forward from their wide draws. BEST SOLUTION and the Japanese galloper CHESTNUT COAT are drawn to get soft inside runs on the pace, as are MARMELO and THE CLIFFSOFMOHER if they want them. YUCATAN will likely be keeping it quiet back of midfield with the old Melbourne Cup legends RED CARDINAL and WHO SHOT THEBARMAN. The well backed MAGIC CIRCLE should be in amongst the peloton. 

With more and more international raiders each year, it becomes increasingly difficult for the form expert to build speed maps and predicted finishes based on the countless number of varying formlines to stack up together. I like to say that it’s like watching two AFL/NRL clubs through the home and away season and then picking who wins from the final eight. Studying the video form of the raiders is essential.

Just five favourites have won in the last 25 years: Might & Power, Jezabeel, Makybe Diva (x2) and Fiorente. 

Fortunately that’s where the model can come in handy, as it is able to crunch together hundreds of various data points from Australia and around the world into 10,000 simulations to come up with its predictions.

So what has the SI model come up with for the big one? 

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MARMELO (10)

SI Rating: 98

Hugh Bowman / Hughie Morrison

$17 into $16. Has flown under the radar due to no lead-up races in Australia, and with all the focus on the new raiders, it’s easy to forget that Marmelo was a beaten favourite in last year’s race. 

Like last year, he brings some good form to Australia. Won a G2 over 2800m and couldn’t repeat his win in the Prix Kergolay (3000m) at Deauville, narrowly missing out; but given that’s a race that has been won by Americain, Dunaden and Protectionist, it’s a strong formline to follow. 

No lead-up races in Australia is an obvious change of strategy after he was battered in last year’s Caulfield Cup. Is drawn to give Bowman plenty of options and it could be his best chance yet to finally clinch a Melbourne Cup.

YUCATAN (barrier 23)

SI Rating: 97

James McDonald / Aidan O’Brien

$4.60 out to $5.50 as the bookies loosen their percentages. Smashed into favouritism after that incredible first-up win in the Herbert Power (2400m, G2) at Caulfield where he made a mid-race move - uphill - and could have easily won by six or more lengths if McDonald didn’t ease him up at the line. The placegetters in that race filled the quinella in the Lexus Stakes on Derby Day, including A Prince Of Arran, so that formline looks super solid.

However, that is the only run of the last couple of seasons that suggests he should be in contention for a Melbourne Cup: he’s done the bulk of his recent racing over 1600-2000m and any other 2400m run has been underwhelming. So by backing him you’re trusting that the Herbert Power run was no fluke. 

A soft track would be somewhat of a disadvantage but if it remains a soft (5) at worst it shouldn’t be a problem. The quinella anchor for the SI model.

BEST SOLUTION (6)

SI Rating: 92

Pat Cosgrave / Saeed bin Suroor

$15 into $13 since drawing 6. Fought hard to win the Caulfield Cup as the top-weighted horse, would have to carry the grandstand again to win the Melbourne Cup. No horse since Ethereal in 2001 has done the Caulfield-Melbourne Cup double, and no horse in history has done it while carrying top weight on both occasions.

Saeed bin Suroor has a place rate of just under 20% from his 21 MC starters. His picket fence of wins have all been over 2400m and he’s untried at this distance, but the Caulfield Cup win suggests he may do alright here. I’m big on mental toughness in horses and the way he fought out that Caulfield Cup finish with the pressure on in the final 600m was very encouraging. Some international jockeys just can’t cut it in Australia for whatever reason but Cosgrave is flying, so that’s no issue either. Just know if you’re backing Best Solution, you’re backing history to be made.

MUNTAHAA (13)

SI Rating: 90

Jim Crowley / John Gosden

$9.50 out to $11. His Ebor win last start over 2800m was truly incredible: the way he drew clear of the 19-horse chasing pack despite carrying 61kg suggests that he belongs here. However, the rest of his prep before that - thirds and fourths in listed to G2 company - does not.

Gosden doesn’t shy away from the fact that Muntahaa is a moody and inconsistent type who, despite all the preparation in the world, is likely to decide on the day what kind of effort he is going to put in. Jim Crowley has settled in well, riding two from two at Bendigo last week. He can win at his best, so don’t put the pen through him, but an average performance won’t cut it here.  

MAGIC CIRCLE (17)

SI Rating: 88

Corey Brown / Ian Williams

$10 into $8.50 - plenty of support. Unless you back him, you probably don’t want him
winning - owner Marwan Koukash has stirred up some publicity by promising to
accept the Cup in nothing but a thong (and not the footwear). Magic Circle is
one of the more proven stayers of the field, collecting three wins this season
over a distance range of 3264 - 3749m, albeit at G2/G3 level. 

It’s well worth watching his last two wins though - the winning margin of six lengths for each just does not justify the manner in which he destroyed his opposition with
total authority. Corey Brown, who won the Cup with Rekindling last year, has
been booked to ride.

THE CLIFFSOFMOHER (9)

SI Rating: 88

Ryan Moore / Aidan O’Brien

Steady at $16. A genuine winning chance for me. This guy finished second in the 2017 Epsom Derby in 2017, missing the big prize by less than a length and beating home the highly-rated Cracksman. Also beat home Yucatan last English summer albeit in a 2000m Group 2. He runs some slick 2400m times, and although he is untested over the two-mile distance, both Caulfield runs suggested he’ll eat this up. Ran the fastest final 600m in the Caulfield Cup despite being under the cosh early in the race. 

He was on the first ship to Australia in September and has been sent to bring home a G1 trophy. Ryan Moore, who has inspired some of The Cliffsofmoher’s best runs in the north, comes over to jump on. A must for all exotics.

YOUNGSTAR (8)

SI Rating: 87

Craig Williams / Chris Waller

Steady at $16. The standout hope of the small Australian contingent, and although not the best credentialed horse in the field, is tough and represents some great value for each-way and exotics players. Several encouraging runs since the Queensland winter, where she blew away the girls in the Oaks (2200m) before flying home from near-last 1400m to place against the boys in the Queensland Derby (also 2200m). 

Since coming to Melbourne, she gave Winx the fright of her life in the 2000m Turnbull before a difficult Caulfield Cup run. Forgive the result and look deeper - she was the only runner in the race to break 24 seconds in the final 400m and the run suggested she’ll be one of the few to be advantaged by a trip up to 3200m. 

Stayers need a good turn of foot as well as staying stamina to win a Melbourne Cup, and Youngstar’s Queensland Oaks proved she has enough to match it with the best. Neither Waller nor Williams have won a Melbourne Cup but in Youngstar they have a sensational opportunity to break through, particularly with just 51.5kg to carry.

CROSS COUNTER (19)

SI Rating: 87

Kerryn McEvoy / Charlie Appleby

$12 into $9.50. Godolphin’s best chance this year, but a couple of question marks remain. A four-time winner over just seven starts, this 4yo gelding is yet to win in a field of greater than ten, so negotiating a field of 24 from barrier 19 will provide a challenge for McEvoy who loves to be on the pace. His most impressive run came two starts back, where he broke the 2400m track record at Goodwood on the way to a G3 King George win. Yet to be tested over anything greater than 2414m. 

The pedigree is concerning: he is by Plenty of Teofilo who hasn’t produced any progeny to have starred over 2800+ metres. Furthermore, a cut to a foreleg a couple of weeks ago kept him out of work for a few days. The Appleby camp insist he’s past it now, but with no Australian racing under his belt it must be a worry. 

51kg on his back will be a great advantage, and you can’t rule out an Appleby contender, but with a few boxes remaining unticked, I’m happy to look elsewhere. 

AVILIUS (11)

SI Rating: 86

Glyn Schofield / James Cummings

Steady at $12. James Cummings is now well and truly in the business of training Group winners in his own right and Godolphin import Avilius will give him a superb shot at Melbourne Cup glory. 

Stepping up in distance and in class throughout each of his first four races this prep, Avilius just kept ticking them off before a respectable fourth in the Cox Plate where he picked up an easy cheque. The Cox Plate was treated as a lead-up for the Grand Final here, so fourth was a bonus. 

Placed a few times behind some handy types as a 3yo around the 2000-2400m distance, but is yet to be tested beyond the 2500m run which saw him claim the Group 3 Bart Cummings. That looked to really push the boundaries of his stamina, so while he can’t be left out of the exotics, he’s worth risking as far as the each-ways go. 

A PRINCE OF ARRAN (20)

SI Rating: 78

Michael Walker / Charlie Fellowes

$12 out to $18 with the horror draw and the forecast of rain. The last to qualify but certainly not the least deserving, A Prince Of Arran has plenty of good experience around the two-mile circuit which is sure to come in handy.

Since this time last year he has already raced on four different continents, being outclassed in two of Dubai’s best staying races before a 9L 6th in the Chester Cup (3750m) behind Magic Circle, a third in the USA’s Belmont Cup (3200m), and two solid runs behind Yucatan at Caulfield and ahead of Brimham Rocks last weekend. 

Charlie Fellowes doesn’t hide behind the fact that the horse can’t stand a wet track, so if the morning rain is heavy enough to influence the race then he’s one to keep out of consideration.

FINCHE (15)

SI Rating: 69

Zac Purton / Chris Waller

Steady at $26. Not the most favoured of the Waller contingent, it must be said. A 5yo Frankel horse so lacks the pedigree for a two-mile feature race like this. 

He was underwhelming in the French spring before turning the tide with a good 2500m win at Deauville, beating home Tiberian.

He has that early race eagerness of a Frankel son and it was on show in the Geelong Cup, where he failed to settle and yet still boxed on for third from back of midfield. 3200m is likely to tire him out quickly if he can’t settle and he’ll be staring at horse rump before he knows it. Even the Waller polish likely won’t be enough to cause a boilover here.

RUNAWAY (12)

SI Rating: 58

Simon Baster / Waterhouse & Bott

$34 out to $41. Baster is one of three apprentices to collect a ride, so Runaway will be flying around with 50.5kg. Winner of the 2800m St Leger on ANZAC Day, Runaway is the first St Leger winner to enter the Melbourne Cup in 11 years - which is bizarre given the similarity in distances.

Runaway snuck into the order of entry based on a Geelong Cup win last week where he gave a good staying effort out in front, albeit with everything his way. Nowadays, the Geelong Cup is no longer classy enough to hold up against the raiders who take different paths and is more often used as a way of entering the Melbourne Cup rather than preparing for it. 

One advantage he does have is experience over the Flemington two-mile course, and it was also an advantage for punters because it demonstrated that he is likely not up to it here. Happy to risk. 

VENTURA STORM (7)

SI Rating: 52

Michael Zahra / Hayes, Hayes & Dabernig

Steady at $31. Has shown a lot ofinconsistency in two busy campaigns since the last Melbourne Cup, which is frustrating, because it means you can’t leave him out of the exotics but can’t have any confidence in keeping him in. 

His best - and worst - performances have come over the 2000-2500m range, while his effort in the autumn Sydney Cup (3200m) was a bit of a battle. Then, after a Caulfield Cup where he was never really in it, he shows a good turn of foot in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup over 2500m, setting a new track record in the process. Two placings at Flemington - both over 2000m - suggests he’s capable of a decent showing at the track. Hard to catch, but probably safe to leave out.

SIR CHARLES ROAD (14)

SI Rating: 41

Dwayne Dunn / O’Sullivan & Scott

$91 out to $101. An honest Kiwi galloper, Sir Charles Road will give a good effort but would need to produce something much better than we have ever seen from him to beat this kind of field. 

Deserves to be here off the back of some good performances across the Tasman and the Murray River: 5th in the Auckland Cup and 3rd in the Sydney Cup (both over 3200m) in addition to beating home Ventura Storm over 2600m at Randwick. He won fresh at Hastings carrying 60.5kg before being thereabouts in two 2000m Caulfield races and a placing in the Bendigo Cup. This is far too hard, though.

AUVRAY (1)

SI Rating: 35

Tommy Berry / Richard Freedman

Steady at $101. Richard Freedman has had plenty of involvement with Group 1 winners, but Auvray will be his first Melbourne Cup entry with an individual training licence and he ought not to expect big things from this Group 3 galloper.

He began his prep with 2nd in the Newcastle Cup (2300m) before a 1.7L 6th in the Metrop behind some mile-and-a-half horses who wouldn’t be up to it in this class. His last start in the St Leger at Randwick suggests that if the Flemington track holds any water by 3pm on Tuesday afternoon, he’ll struggle even more. One to put the pen through early. 

SOUND CHECK (16)

SI Rating: 24

Jordan Childs / Michael Moroney

$51 into $34. Outclassed, debutant jockey, badly drawn. If you’ve got Sound Check in your sweep you’re probably in for very little excitement. This German galloper was plodding around the back of the Caulfield Cup field last start only to be outsprinted by better contenders such as Youngstar and Ventura Storm. 

Has won over 3200m last season and was narrowly beaten by Best Solution at Hoppegarten where he had a much easier time in the straight and still couldn’t find another gear. Looks out of his depth here. 

CHESTNUT COAT (4)

SI Rating: 24

Yuga Kawada / Yoshito Yahagi

$41 out to $51. It’s been a while since we’ve had a Japanese raider challenge in a
Melbourne Cup (the late Admire Rakti was anticipated to) and we may have to
wait another year if Chestnut Coat fails to produce something unexpected. Had
been going around in <$400k races in Japan around the 2000-2400m distance
before stepping up to group level in March, where he showed some class,
particularly in the 3200m Tenno Sho. Drawn to get a handy run on pace or
midfield (wherever Kawada fancies) and, while the distance may suit him more
than many others, he lacks the acceleration to match it with this kind of
field. Happy to rule out.

VENGEUR MASQUE (2)

SI Rating: 23

Patrick Moloney / Michael Moroney

$67 out to $71. Vengeur Masque gets his chance after being 25th in the order of entry (first emergency) in 2016 and 2017, but will likely be making up the numbers. 

Frankly, he was more deserving to enter last year, after taking out the Geelong Cup (usually good enough on its own to get you a ballot) at 15/1 and then following it up with second in the Lexus (2500m) on Derby Day and then taking out the Queen Elizabeth (2600m) on Emirates Stakes Day. 

Hasn’t been travelling as well this season, finishing 5L behind Avilius in the Bart Cummings (2500m) before never being in the Caulfield Cup. Best of luck to the connections, who have been rewarded for their persistence, but this looks too tough. 

WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (18)

SI Rating: 23

Ben Melham / Chris Waller

$61 into $41. God bless the old war horse who prepares to enter his fourth Melbourne Cup, this time as a 10yo, and he continues to pick up good prizemoney in long-distance stakes races because of the shallow talent pool that is Australian stayers.

Unfortunately, as a 10yo, he’ll need to break quite a bit of history: no horse has won the Cup at older than eight, and even then the last 8yo to win was before the post-war period. He also draws the only of the 24 barriers - #18 - to have never produced a Melbourne Cup winner. 

His performance in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup (where he made ground from 11th at the 800 to finish 2.4L behind Ventura Storm), as well as his knack of lifting above his formline in 3200m races, means he is somewhat a chance to sneak into the first four. At the very worst, he probably pays the costs for connections with a bit of change left over.

ACE HIGH (22)

SI Rating: 22

Tye Angland / David Payne

$61 out to $101. One of the Aussie contingent, so sure to get some bets simply based on the name recognition, but I’m afraid they’ll likely be wasting their money here.

2017’s Victoria Derby winner becomes just the second Derby winner this decade to step out into a Melbourne Cup as a 4yo - the other, Preferment, went no good. Nothing from this prep has suggested he’ll be suited to anything greater than the 2500m he made his own last spring. Took out the G2 Hill Stakes (2000m) before leading and fading away in the Caulfield Cup when stepping up to 2400m. He was horribly worked up that day and needs to work on his raceday manners to be in with a chance over a staying test like this. 

NAKEETA (3)

SI Rating: 22

Regan Bayliss / Iain Jardine

$81 out to $91. Fifth in this race last year but doesn’t look to be going nearly as well time around so happy to risk.

Remember me mentioning Muntahaa’s glorious Ebor victory earlier in this piece? Nakeeta won that race last year but managed just seventh when defending her crown this time around. She has been building fitness this prep over the distance range of 2800-3800 but has failed to even place let alone win in some non-stakes handicaps.

The 13th in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup left a lot to be desired. A rank outsider.

ROSTROPOVICH (21)

SI Rating: 22

Wayne Lordan / Aidan O’Brien

$21 out to $26. After Aidan O’Brien’s heavily-favoured Johannes Vermeer was knocked off by a European 3yo trained by his son Joseph, the senior O’Brien has opted to repeat his son’s successes by attacking Melbourne Cup riches with a 3yo of his own in Rostropovich. 

Interestingly, Rostropovich will be the first of the 4yo Frankel progeny to enter a Melbourne Cup - not exactly a sire touted to produce Melbourne Cup winners. This prep has been OK - a second to Old Persian in the G2 King Edward followed by a second at 25/1 in the 2400m Irish derby. His only start in Australia was a Cox Plate which went horribly wrong right from the start. Needs to be up there early and the draw doesn’t help his chances.

RED CARDINAL (5)

SI Rating: 18

Damien Oliver / Darren Weir

$91 into $61. Perhaps a bit of sentimental support from those who like to back a Weir runner, because he unfortunately looks past his better days. Missed the autumn after picking up an injury in last year’s Melbourne Cup and was aimed to improve on that result this year. 

Started the prep as expected, struggling over middle distance races fresh, but also continued to battle in the Naturalism, Randwick’s St Leger, and the 2500m Moonee Valley Gold Cup. Not showing enough to include in any final considerations. 

ZACADA (24)

SI Rating: 14

Damian Lane / Baker & Forsman

$101 out to $151. A rank outsider and nothing to suggest that he stands a chance here. Since a second in the much weaker Sydney Cup (3200m) he has failed to impress in four runs across New Zealand and Victoria, including finishing 7L behind Runaway in last week’s Geelong Cup. Out of this.

Stats Insider’s selections: 9-11-1-5

Aaron Murphy’s selections: 2-9-22-3