Luka Dončić Is Dominating This Year's Rookie Class

Luka Dončić was written off by many before he was even drafted by the Dallas Mavericks.

More to do with being a European lottery pick than anything else, every part of his game was overanalysed and for the most part, inaccurately scrutinised, in the buildup to the NBA Draft.

He was apparently too slow to deal with the increase in pace from the EuroLeague to the NBA. His three-point shot wasn't good enough. Stronger and more athletic NBA players would be too much for his pudgy body to handle.

Dončić would be the next in a long list of highly-touted European prospects that didn't make it in the toughest league in the world.

All these assumptions and criticism stood, despite the fact Dončić had won the EuroLeague MVP and the Finals MVP on his way to a Championship at just 19 years old.

He's only 25 games into his NBA career, but it's safe to say that those doubters have already been proven wrong. People are now swooning over the ball-handling forward who Dirk Nowitzki claims is ahead of him both on and off the court at the same age.

Remarkably, the guy who played professional basketball in a superior competition to the NCAA has transitioned into the NBA with relative ease.

Averaging 17.8 points per game shooting 37.1% from three-point land, Doncic has already established himself as a scorer.  The three-point shot people were worried about is just fine. His step-back jumper that he hits at 37.4% is already one of the prettiest in the league, and he's connecting on 38% of his three-point catch and shoot opportunities.

Dončić has quickly announced himself as an elite long-range shooter, but he has no trouble putting the ball on the floor either.

Despite his lack of speed, Dončić is crafty and appears to have all of the time in the world during his 11.4 drives per game. After three years playing professionally against grown men, Dončić knows how to use his body. He doesn't need blistering speed or super strength to be effective when driving to the basket.

Luka Doncic se la hace a Rudy Gobert. Qué travieso 😈 pic.twitter.com/Wj7jw6ivO5

— More Than A Game (@Pasion_Basket1) November 15, 2018

While he's only shooting 37.8% on those drives he attempts to score on, his passing opens up further opportunities. Dončić passes out of 34.2% of his drives for 1.2 assists and a 10.6% assists rate - good enough to be alongside the likes of LeBron James and Chris Paul.

It's that ability to pass and make the right read that highlights how developed Dončić is as a passer and as a decision maker.

Just look at the first assist of his career.

He gets past the defender with ease, draws the help, and makes the simple pass to DeAndre Jordan for the slam. Less than a minute into life in the NBA, Dončić is cool, calm and collected.

His basketball IQ is beyond that of an ordinary rookie. Who'd have thought the kid that had been playing in Europe's best competition would be further along than most first-year players in the NBA?

By being so good so early, Dončić has managed to cast a shadow over what is an otherwise brilliant rookie class.

He's almost an unbackable favourite his price at most bookmakers is that short, but without him, this would be one of the great Rookie of the Year races.

The Rest Of The Class

Deandre Ayton: Ayton, the 1st overall pick in the draft, has put up impressive box score numbers on what is a terrible Suns team.

Averaging 15.8 points and 10.2 rebounds on 59.8% shooting, Ayton is only behind Dončić in points while leading all rookies in rebounds. His efficiency is already at an elite level. Mitchell Robinson (64.4%) is the only rookie playing decent minutes with a better effective field goal percentage, although, he's doing it on 3.1 field goals attempted per game to Ayton's (59.8%) far more involved 11.7 attempts per game.

His speed, footwork and soft touch are on full display here.

When he isn't filling the basket using an array of post moves, Ayton is cleaning the class with his 17.2% rebound rate which is already inside the top 20 in the league (min. 10 games). 

Ayton's downfall, as it usually is with rookie big men, is in his defense. However, he's shown an interest in working on that part of his game. That's all you can ask from a 20-year old working his way into the NBA.

Trae Young: Famously traded for Dončić on draft night, Young is under the most pressure to develop into an NBA star. The questions of what could have been are already being asked of the Hawks and will be for Young's whole career if he doesn't become the elite player the franchise thinks he can. 

His early struggles haven't helped the narrative that the Hawks made a terrible mistake on draft night.

With -1.0 win shares, Young is on pace to finish with -2.5 for the season which would be the second-worst season in recorded NBA history. His -0.7 VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) is equal for the worst in the league as we approach Christmas.

Shooting 38.2% and needing 14.9 attempts for his 15.7 points per game, Young is a significant contributor to the Hawks playing with the 28th ranked offense. With Young on the floor, their 98.5 offensive rating sits 30th in the league.

Despite his poor numbers, Young has shown glimpses of what he's capable of and sporadically lives up to the lazy Steph Curry comparisons that won't go away. He's playing just enough games like his 24 points and 10 assists against Dončić and the Mavericks that there is still hope that Young can be a good NBA player. In fact, he trails only LeBron James as the second-youngest player to record five 20-point and 10-assists games.

Luka Doncic (24 PTS, 10 REB, 6 AST) & Trae Young (24 PTS, 10 AST) each post double-doubles in an #NBARooks duel in Dallas! #MFFL #TrueToAtlanta pic.twitter.com/x4cKuXIdB8

— NBA (@NBA) December 13, 2018

He has a lot of work to do, though. These numbers, even on an awful Hawks team, won't be tolerated forever no matter his potential. His overall counting stats propped up by his 7.3 assists per game may appease the casual fan, but Young has a long way to go before ROY voters put him in the conversation.

Jaren Jackson Jr: Jackson, the 4th overall pick in the draft, is only just 19-years old. Few thought he could come into the league and have such an impact so quickly.

His counting stats don't jump off the page. Not for a guy already being compared to Anthony Davis, anyway.

Scoring 13.1 points on 51% shooting from the field while pulling down 4.6 rebounds per game, Jackson acts as a handy role player in the Grizzlies' offense. He's a slightly below average outside shooter (33.8%) and can get to the rim using his 6'11" frame and 7'4" wingspan.

It's that wingspan that has helped him really stamp his mark on the NBA early.

Jackson's defensive instincts and ability are outrageous for a kid just 27 games into his NBA career.

Of all players with 20+ games and 20+ minutes, Jackson is 3rd in the NBA in defensive rating at 98.3. His 1.8 blocks per game is good for 11th in the league while his impact on the Grizzlies and their 5th-ranked defense (105.8) is unquestioned.

Jackson is the ideal fit for Memphis and is surrounded by great defensive players. Where Jackson landed has absolutely helped him early on, but the fact he features in the top five three-man lineups in the NBA leaves little doubt he's a key cog in the Grizzlies defense.

stats.nba.com

Of the three players chasing Dončić, Jackson is the most likely to catch him. His numbers and role in a good team playing meaningful games are likely to have him at least 2nd when it comes to voting time.

Dončić is dominating a draft class that not only boasts Ayton, Young and Jackson Jr, but also Colin Sexton, Marvin Bagley III, Wendell Carter Jr and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

All have impressed in their own right, but none quite to the extent of Dončić. He's made what would have been an epic Rookie of the Year race in his absence close to a foregone conclusion only a quarter of the way into the season.

He may not end up being the best player in the 2018 draft class when it's all said and done, but the Slovenian widely tipped to be the next flash in the pan of European flops is the odds-on favourite to win ROY.

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