Man vs Machine: A-League Week 5
Last updated: Nov 20, 2018, 4:18AM | Published: Nov 19, 2018, 7:47AM
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It's our first A-League edition of 'Man vs Machine', where I take on Stats Insider's new A-League model! All ten teams will be fresh after little involvement in the international break, which should make for some very high-intensity football, including the latest 'Big Blue' from Kogarah on Sunday evening.
Who: Western Sydney v Newcastle
When: Fri 23 Nov 7:50pm EDT
The Play: Western Sydney to win the first half
The Jets have not beaten Western Sydney away since 2014/15 and this doesn’t look to be their best opportunity to end the drought. The model currently identifies some value in backing the home side (+5%), and I’m happy to back them in for at least the first 45 minutes, given that the Jets have failed to score a first-half goal this season, whereas the Wanderers have led at half-time in their last two fixtures.
The Jets are clearly missing the clinical finishing of Roy O’Donovan in the final third, creating plenty of chances (58 shots, second only to WSW) but finding just the three goals with the second-worst accuracy in the league (27%).
Four of the last six meetings between these teams have gone over 2.5, including their only fixture at Spotless Stadium (2-2). Given the inaccuracy of the Jets and their inability to keep a clean sheet all year, it’ll be a tough task to get points on the road here. Prefer to lean towards the value for WSW than the value for the unders (+8%), but going to back the Wanderers to get off to a good start.
When: Sat 24 Nov 5:35pm EDT
The Play: Adelaide HT/FT double
Two sides who both suffered 2-0 losses last week meet as the Phoenix search for their first win against United in nine fixtures. With just two goals to their name (inc. one own goal), the fewest shots on target this season (12) and the second-worst goal difference in the league, it’s difficult to part with your hard-earned for a Phoenix win even with the +7% edge identified by our new A-League model.
Adelaide have played better than their ladder position early in the season suggests: they deserved their draws against Sydney and Newcastle, and Perth Glory look to be a class above either of these sides.
Given that the Reds travel well to Wellington and are yet to concede a first-half goal this season, and with a squad who will want to make a statement after a home loss last week, expect them to start strongly. From there they should be good enough to hold on.
Who: Brisbane v Melbourne City
When: Sat 24 Nov 7:50pm EDT
The Play: Both Teams to Score - YES
This is a fascinating betting contest. Perhaps curiously, the model rates Brisbane as a very narrow favourite against Melbourne City and has come up with a 7% edge for the hosts to win. Difficult to take given the opposite directions both sides are going in: Brisbane could be on the edge of a breakthrough but their last two goals have come from penalties, while City are capable of a big season despite that lapse against Sydney.
Bruno Fornaroli snapped a five-game scoreless run and tends to carry on with goalscoring form: he has scored in back-to-back weeks on 14 occasions for Melbourne City, so one would expect him to be switched on for this. That said, he has scored just the two goals in seven appearances against the Roar - his worst record against any A-League club.
Perhaps that second stat is the key to Brisbane pulling off the upset and getting Machine a point over Man here. The last five meetings at Suncorp have favoured Brisbane (W3, D1, L1), with City taking out the last contest.
Both sides have just the one clean sheet and one ‘failed to score’ to their name, so expecting both teams to find the back of the net, as has happened in six of their last seven meetings in Brisbane.
Who: Sydney v Melbourne Victory
When: Sun 25 Nov 5:00pm
The Play: Under 2.5 goals
The Victory look to be building another quality squad and are sure to throw everything they have at their rivals at Kogarah on Sunday evening. Going to agree with the model here, which has produced a 5% edge in favour of this game falling under 2.5 total goals.
What a great test for the visitors: Adam Le Fondre has scored in all four games (as well as the FFA Cup final) and with incredible efficiency: eight players have had more attempts at goal than him and only Andy Keogh joins him with greater than 60% shooting accuracy. He has already demonstrated an ability to produce on the big stage.
For all the talk about Le Fondre and Victory’s attacking stocks (led by two goals and three assists from Keisuke Honda), it may surprise some readers that just two of the last six meetings between these teams have seen more than 2.5 goals scored. Both clubs sharpen up defensively for this rivalry, and fresh from an international break, they should produce another tight contest.
When: Sun 27 Nov 7:00pm
The Play: Perth HT/FT
Popa’s Glory are absolutely flying and are a club I earmarked at the top of the season for brilliant top four/Premiers Plate value: eight Plates have been won by the oldest squad in the league (tick), Popovic has won a Plate in his first year with a new club (tick), and they boast plenty of experienced Socceroos who can perform under pressure.
In a club record ten points in their first four weeks, they announced themselves to the competition by knocking off the Victory in Melbourne and the struggling Mariners shouldn’t be good enough to stand in their way at home.
Central Coast haven’t won in their last seven trips to Perth (D1, L6), going back to 2013/14 when they finished third.
The model has a 9% value for the under 2.5 play as it continues to learn the A-League, but I can’t have that. Not when the Glory have scored in 16 straight league games and the Mariners have shipped seven in their last two. Perth have not conceded a single first-half goal this season for three halftime leads, and should they maintain that trend against the Mariners, they’ll roll on and win.
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