Man vs Machine: A-League Week 6

Sports predictions are a relatively new concept in Australia. As sports fans and punters, we are accustomed to hearing opinions, sometimes mixed in with historical stats and trends, on how a game is likely to pan out. We also form our own expert opinion based on knowledge of the game.

For every sport, we will release Author opinions in these segments, and each week we’ll recap how each side did - the opinion or the data, the head or the heart, THE MAN OR THE MACHINE. 

THIS is how we will show you that the average punter can benefit from Stats Insider, not just the pros. No matter what kind of punter you are - social, regular or serious, Stats Insider has something for you.

There is a very real prospect that Perth Glory could extend their already four-point lead at the top of the table this week, and as this writer predicted at the beginning of the season, Popa's boys look a top-four lock. 

Who: Adelaide v Brisbane

When: Fri Nov 30, 7:50pm EDT

The Play: Brisbane double chance

The underdog have won the last four clashes between these two sides and based on Brisbane’s performances in their past three weeks, I’m willing to give them a shot at stretching that streak against an Adelaide side who have started sluggishly in their past two fixtures.

After struggling early, Adam Taggart has now found his feet and is leading the Golden Boot with Le Fondre after a double against City last week. He is still shooting at only 30% accuracy but that number is improving week by week, and he now has ten from his last eight A-League starts. 

The SI model currently finds an +8% edge in the under 2.5 market, but you’d be backing against the trend of all but one of the last nine Brisbane away games falling overs. Expecting Kurz to put the boot up his players this week and see them come out firing, but they may have to wait another fortnight for that elusive first home win. At the price I’m happy to try my luck.

Who: Central Coast v Sydney

When: Sat Dec 1, 5:35pm EDT

The Play: Under 2.5 goals

Two sides who both suffered losses last week do battle with the visitors the heavy favourites. The Mariners would have been particularly shattered given how close they were to a shock draw at Perth, while a loss for the reigning Premiers was probably a fair result albeit a disappointing one. 

The model has identified two orange smileys in early markets for this fixture. If you can bring yourself to back the Mariners to take just their second victory against Sydney in 13 meetings (D2, L9), the model has a +7% edge in their favour. Perhaps best used as a warning against taking the short price for Sydney given they have just the two wins to their name so far this season and that Mike Mulvey has a very impressive record against Sydney (1.7 points per game).

The smiley I much prefer is the +7% for under 2.5 goals. Yes, the last seven meetings between these sides at Gosford produces an average of four goals. Yes, the Mariners have conceded 12 and Le Fondre is banging them in for fun. But I see this fixture breaking the trend. Last week was the first time in nine regular-season fixtures that the Sky Blues conceded more than one goal and I fancy they’ll tighten up sharply in the back four while operating a counter-attacking style.

Who: Melbourne Victory v Western Sydney

When: Sat Dec 1, 7:50pm EDT

The Play: Melbourne Victory to win

The defending champions picked up a thoroughly deserved victory at Kogarah last week and look to be in a fantastic position to go back-to-back: every time the Victory have started an A-League season with at least three wins in the opening five rounds, they have gone on to become Champions.

Victory continue to look deadly in front of goal, needing just five shots per goal (equal best in the league) for their ten goals this season and have conceded just two goals in their last three matches - one to a very controversial penalty last week. Georg Niedermeier looks a particularly solid acquisition in the back four as does Storm Roux, who has plenty of upside left in him.

Oriol Riera is sure to keep them busy this weekend, leading the league for attempts at goal by a long, long way, with 27 - although he is shooting with just 33% accuracy this season. The Wanderers have not won back-to-back away matches in over three years, have not defeated the Victory in eight matches (D3, L5) and don’t look good enough to snap that run here.

The model is currently tipping the under 2.5 play (+6%) to salute here - it has happened in just two of the last four meetings between these sides.

Who: Wellington v Perth

When: Sun Dec 2, 5:00pm EDT

The Play: Wellington double chance

Gotta love the ‘Distance Derby’! Perth look one of the teams to beat early on and, despite having to get three points against Central Coast the hard way, those kinds of victories can be crucial not only in terms of points but also in building the belief to get the job done when it matters most. This Perth side are building a lot of belief.

They’re equal with the Victory for efficiency (five shots per goal), first for fewest passes per goal (195), second only to the Victory for shots on target (24), and yet lead the league for goals scored despite being second-last for passes completed in the final third. 

The tale looks much more dire for Mark Rudan’s Phoenix, falling away to a three-loss run, having conceded three goals in each of their last two at home. That said, it’s not a myth that they lift for home games against the Glory: they won both home fixtures with Perth last season. The first followed a five-game winless run to open the season, while the second was off the back of consecutive 4-0 losses in Sydney and Western Sydney. In 2016/17, they broke a three-game losing streak at home with a 3-3 draw to the Glory.

The SI model has an orange smiley in their favour, and though I’m taking the double chance myself due to a lack of confidence in Phoenix taking the win, it’s worth a small play.

Who: Melbourne City v Newcastle

When: Sun Dec 2, 7:00pm EDT

The Play: Melbourne City (draw no bet)

Who can honestly catch Melbourne City at the moment? Touted as a genuine title contender after an impressive derby win in the opening week, they have since slumped to losses against the Sky Blues and the Roar.

This fixture will have a little bit of extra bite after last year’s incredible Semi-Final, where Riley McGree knocked out his new club with a Puskas-nominated scorpion kick goal. Expect Bruno Fornaroli, who has ten goals from eight appearances against the Jets, to be back as City cannot afford to be experimenting now.

Backing City to win at home seems incredibly risky given how shaky they are, but the fact remains that they have a squad and a manager capable of going all the way this season and Newcastle’s poor record at AAMI Park should help them bounce back here. 

City have a 6-3-1 record from their last ten against Newcastle at home, and put 2+ on the board on nine occasions. The ‘draw no bet’ option at 1.40 is a very safe option. 

Get all our sporting predictions - every game, every day - with a FREE TRIAL of Stats Insider Premium.

Don't forget to follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram!