Man vs Machine: EPL Week 13

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The EPL season is now one-third complete and we finally return from the third international break of 2018/19, with Manchester City now a 70% chance of taking out the title according to our model's futures predictions. This writer is hoping that the Spurs can continue to "put the pressure on" with a huge fortnight against Chelsea and Arsenal coming up. Where is the value found this week?

Who: Manchester United v Crystal Palace

When: Sun 25 Nov, 2:00am EDT

The Play: Over 2.5 goals 

Manchester United’s last six league games have all produced over 2.5 total goals and that streak should move to seven when they are done with the struggling Crystal Palace at home on Sunday morning.

They need to make a big statement here, not only to bounce back from a 1-3 derby loss before the break but also to remain in touch with the top 4 (currently a 12-point gap). Best to do so against a side in which they have put two or more into the back of the net in their last six meetings. Four of those six meetings produced three or more total goals.

Crystal Palace have struggled defensively against more established attacks. Two away wins this season came against the bottom two clubs (Huddersfield and Fulham), while in their other four trips they failed to keep the home side to fewer than two goals (3-1, 2-1 x2, 2-0). 

The only danger? The last time United followed up a Manchester derby with a game against Crystal Palace (in 15/16), they drew 0-0 - albeit at Selhurst Park.

Who: Watford v Liverpool 

When: Sun 25 Nov, 2:00am EDT

The Play: Liverpool HT/FT double (Best Bet)

Watford have enjoyed the bulk of their success within Vicarage Road, but Liverpool should be too strong here. Given that the Reds have conceded in all six away EPL trips this season, Watford will need to improve on their defensive performances that have seen them concede eight goals at home this season.

Liverpool have dropped points in two of their last three on the road (W1, D2) but will be fresh from the break. They have won on return from the first two international breaks of the season, defeating Tottenham and Huddersfield both away from home. They completed the HT/FT double on both occasions. Liverpool have also been leading at HT and FT in four of their last five clashes with Watford, and Watford have a first-half GD of -2 at home.

If you’re looking for a first goalscorer bet, all six of Mo Salah’s league goals this season have come inside the first 45. Klopp’s troops have led in nine of their 12 league games this season and converted all nine into victories. What more do you need?! Fully expecting the Reds to hold Watford to their third home loss of 2018/19. 

Who: Everton v Cardiff

When: Sun 25 Nov, 2:00am EDT

The Play: Everton HT/FT double

Cardiff enjoyed a breakthrough victory against Brighton at home going into the break, but the honeymoon may be short and sweet as they have to travel to Everton this week. With just one point and a GD of -9 from their five away trips this season, they’ll need to lift big to stand a chance here.

Cardiff have been behind at HT and FT in their last three on the road, and they face an Everton side who have been drawing at HT and leading at FT in their last three at home, all against bottom-ten clubs. They have scored first on seven occasions this season and Cardiff just once, so there’s no reason why Everton can’t get off to a solid start and maintain it.

The two sides have met just twice this century - in Cardiff’s brief foray into the EPL in 2013/14 - with Everton winning their home fixture 2-1. 

Who: Fulham v Southampton

When: Sun 25 Nov, 2:00am EDT

The Play: Southampton to win

Fulham have not beaten Southampton in their five head-to-heads this decade (D2, L3) and, as they continue to compile a winless streak now at nine (D2, L7), there’s sadly little to suggest that they can find a breakthrough win even at home, where they have conceded eight goals in their last two matches.

An ugly 31 goals against their name makes for worrying times for Fulham fans. They are particularly vulnerable after the break, where they have a current GD of -14, and -5 in second-half football at home. The bulk of their goals have come in the first half, and they’ll need to take advantage of a Southampton side that have conceded nine first-half goals in their six away trips this season.

The Saints hold an aggregate score of 6-0 in their last three meetings with Fulham (inc. FA Cups). 

Who: Wolves v Huddersfield Town

When: Mon 26 Nov, 3:00am EDT

The Play: Huddersfield double chance (Best Value)

Did Wolves manage to get their season back on track with the 1-1 draw at the Emirates before the break? We’ll find out here when they take on a seemingly relegation-bound side in Huddersfield.

No longer a tough nut to crack at home after dropping all three points to Watford and Tottenham, Wolverhampton look in a vulnerable position and the model agrees, identifying a +6% edge in favour of the Terriers. Huddersfield’s chance to strike is within the first half hour of the match, where Wolves have scored just one but conceded seven. Given that Huddersfield themselves have scored only three and conceded seven themselves, the game could be won and lost in this crucial period.

They ought to be playing a little more confidently, having more than doubled their points tally in just two games before the break, albeit both at home. They have secured draws away to Burnley and Everton, so are not without a chance for an upset here. A win may be a bit too big an ask if Wolverhampton lift, so the double chance appeals.

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