Man vs Machine: EPL Week 14
Last updated: Nov 29, 2018, 12:50AM | Published: Nov 29, 2018, 12:17AM.jpg?w=750)
Sports predictions are a relatively new concept in Australia. As sports fans and punters, we are accustomed to hearing opinions, sometimes mixed in with historical stats and trends, on how a game is likely to pan out. We also form our own expert opinion based on knowledge of the game.
For every sport, we will release Author opinions in these segments, and each week we’ll recap how each side did - the opinion or the data, the head or the heart, THE MAN OR THE MACHINE.
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Machine comprehensively beat man in our new EPL segment last week (including Huddersfield to win at $7.50!) but it’s early days, so let’s take a look at week 14 as we head into December.
When: Sat Dec 1, 7:00am EDT
The Play: Both Teams to Score - YES
Cardiff are holding onto survival hope after winning two of their last three at home and they tackle a very vulnerable Wolves who have picked up just the one point from their last five league fixtures.
Still yet to open the scoring at home this season, and having scored first just once all season, the Welsh outfit will need to rectify their sluggish starts to continue turning their season around, particularly given that Wolves have been trailing at the break just twice when on the road.
Wolves’ form slump went from bad to worse with that shock loss to Huddersfield and they are yet to bounce back from defeat with a win the following week.
The last ten meetings between these two sides have all found a winner, so this doesn’t appear to be one for the draw backers. Both teams have scored in four of the last five H2Hs, and I’m expecting both sides to be attacking this fixture as a very winnable one. The model currently identifies a +4% edge in our favour, so even better.
Who: Manchester City v AFC Bournemouth
When: Sun Dec 2, 2:00am EDT
The Play: Over 2.5 goals
I normally stay away from $1.25 plays personally, but this is a free 25% boost to your weekend multi. Man City have never been beaten by Bournemouth with their last draw coming in the 1988/89 second division! In addition to eight goals from three trips to Bournemouth, they have scored 13 goals in their three PL home games against the Cherries for an overall GD of +12.
It doesn’t get any easier for Bournemouth from here with Adam Smith out for up to three months and Jefferson Lerma serving a one-game ban. With City averaging 3.6 goals per game in their last five weeks, all roads lead to another decimation for the visitors.
Can Bournemouth become the sixth club to score against City? If you fancy the Cherries to get on the board, you have the model’s blessings, with a current +5% edge in favour of both teams scoring. Bournemouth have scored in six of their last seven, including against Man United and Arsenal, so while it may be hard to have on paper, it may not be the worst bet of the week.
For those interested in player bets, Raheem Sterling has nine goals in his six appearances against Bournemouth.
When: Sun Dec 2, 2:00am EDT
The Play: Under 2.5 goals
Expecting a very tight clash between two sides both desperate for points. Crystal Palace should field an unchanged XI to the one that held United to a 0-0 draw at Old Trafford last week, with Scott Dann perhaps another week from returning.
The SI model currently identifies a +5% edge for over 2.5 total goals, but I’m going to take it on as it’s difficult to see where those three goals are coming from at this point: the four strikers expected to take the field here in Zaha, Townsend, Vokes and Wood have a combined total of three goals between them from the last five PL rounds - perhaps with the exception of Zaha, they’re all somewhat out of form.
Crystal Palace have kept a clean sheet in six of their last eight competitive fixtures against Burnley, with six of their last seven falling unders, while Hodgson’s boys have also scored in just one of their last six home matches.
They should get the job done here, but it looks like it could be a 1-0 scrap, and even then I’m not particularly confident in them taking three points from this one.
As a side note, five of Burnley’s seven away games have had a drawn result at the break, as have four of Palace’s six at home.
When: Sun Dec 2, 2:00am EDT
The Play: Under 2.5 goals and/or Both Teams to Score - NO
Take your pick here! We’re trusting the model as Aaron Mooy’s troops look to complete their wonderful U-turn and pick up points in a fourth successive league match after the breakthrough victory against Fulham. The SI model has been finding value in Huddersfield for some weeks now so it was great to see it salute at Wolverhampton last week, especially with the great man Mooy netting a double.
Huddersfield’s last six games have all produced under 2.5 total goals, as have six of their last seven overall, AS HAVE eight of the last ten meetings between the Terriers and the ‘gulls. Brighton don’t look particularly capable of snapping that trend, and as the model has a 4% edge in favour of the unders and in one or neither team scoring, it looks the goods.
Glenn Murray should be OK to play after picking up a knock last week but little niggles like that only favour the unders.
Who: Newcastle v West Ham
When: Sun Dec 2, 2:00am EDT
The Play: Newcastle to win
Robert Snodgrass is back for West Ham but given their ongoing injury plague, they are certainly undermanned as they travel to Newcastle to attempt to halt the surprise run of the Maggies.
The Hammers haven’t picked up three points on the road since mid-September, failing to score at Brighton and also being held to draws against better form lower-half sides such as Leicester and Huddersfield.
Doesn’t look like Arnautovic or Wilshere will be taking the field this week, nor will long-term injuries such as Yarmolenko, Reid and Lanzini.
Newcastle have turned things around in dramatic fashion with three straight wins and have the recent wood over West Ham: they have won their last three matches against West Ham and are 3-1-0 in their last four at home with the Hammers.
The hosts have all the momentum and look good value at the 2.35-2.40 mark.
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