Man vs Machine: NBA Day 29
Last updated: Nov 14, 2018, 1:19AM | Published: Nov 13, 2018, 10:14PM
After launching into a new space in Australia and experimenting how best to do it, with some really exciting feedback from thousands of users to date (thank you!), we bring you Man vs Machine - THIS is how we will show you that the average punter can benefit from Stats Insider, not just the pros.
For every sport, we will release Author opinions, alongside the thoughts of the model, and etc week we’ll recap how each side did - the opinion or the data, the head or the heart, THE MAN OR THE MACHINE.
On today's agenda, we search for value amongst a small and tough three-game slate. The Charlotte Hornets head to Cleveland to take on the Cavaliers, Houston tries to revitalise their season in Denver against the Nuggets and the Warriors host the Hawks.
Charlotte @ Cleveland
A wounded and injury-ravaged Cleveland Cavaliers outfit hosts an interesting Charlotte team, who have enjoyed mixed results so far this season. Kemba Walker has been one of the league's most unguardable players, averaging a career-high 27.9 points per game.
The Cavaliers are the Walking Dead of NBA teams right now, with Kevin Love, Sam Dekker, Cedi Osman, George Hill, J.R. Smith and Kyle Korver all sidelined. A lot rests on the shoulders of Collin Sexton, who has been thrown in the deep end with his veteran teammates out.
Key Stats and Trends: Charlotte have started the season well under new coach James Borrego, opening 9-4 ATS so far, including 5-2 ATS on the road. They're posting a scorching 112.1 points per 100 possessions on offense, good for 6th in the NBA. Their Net Rating is also a healthy +2.9, ranked 8th.
Cleveland meanwhile is 1-5 ATS at home, and are also ranked 23rd in Offensive Rating (104.2), 29th in Defensive Rating (113.9) and Net Rating (-9.7) at home. The spread is big, but bet on the Hornets to take care of business.
Key Play: Charlotte -7.5
Houston @ Denver
Carmelo Anthony will continue his absence from the Houston Rockets for a third straight game, as the team heads to Denver to try and upset the Nuggets on their home floor. The Rockets are -9.0 per 100 with Melo on the floor, but are a +2.1 per 100 with him off. His absence could make the crucial difference.
Denver will be no pushovers though and despite a recent 3 game skid, they have started the season on fire, particularly defensively. Nikola Jokic will be a tough assignment for Clint Capela, whilst the backcourt matchup of Chris Paul and James Harden vs Gary Harris and Jamal Murray looms large.
Key Stats and Trends: the Rockets are 5-7 overall, but just 4-8 ATS and 3-4 ATS on the road. They've been league average on the road, ranked 14th in Net Rating (+0.1). Their defense (ranked 7th at 105.3 per 100) has been solid, while their offense ranks 19th at 105.4 per 100.
The Nuggets are 9-4 on the season so far, but just 7-6 ATS including 5-3 at home. Their Net Rating of +7.3 is ranked 9th in the NBA, and their offense (9th, 112.2) and defense (10th, 104.9) has been solid. This is a tough one - but bank on the Nuggets to end their 3 game skid.
Key Play: Denver -3.5
Atlanta @ Golden State
Atlanta should be thanking their lucky stars that the NBA Gods struck down Steph Curry with an adductor strain, because they need all the help they can get heading to Oracle Arena to take on the Warriors.
Golden State will look to put yesterday's drama behind them, as Draymond Green and Kevin Durant had a serious post-game confrontation which spilt into the locker room post-game after Green's reckless final play cost the Warriors a potential win. How will they respond?
Key Stats and Trends: the Hawks have posted a respectable 5-8 ATS record so far, with a 3-4 record on the road. They were competitive against the Lakers the other night in Los Angeles, but Golden State is a different beast.
The Warriors are 6-2 ATS at home this season, with the #1 ranked Offensive Rating (117.8 per 100!), 14th in Defensive Rating (107.2 per 100) and 3rd in Net Rating (+10.6 per 100). 12 points is a lot, but it isn't for the Warriors even on a back to back. Lay it.
Key Play: Golden State -11.5
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