Man vs Machine: NBA Day 41

Sports predictions are a relatively new concept in Australia. As sports fans and punters, we are accustomed to hearing opinions, sometimes mixed in with historical stats and trends, on how a game is likely to pan out. We also form our own expert opinion based on knowledge of the game.

For every sport, we will release Author opinions in these segments, and each week we’ll recap how each side did - the opinion or the data, the head or the heart, THE MAN OR THE MACHINE. 

For everything our models account for - past performance, individual data, location factors and much more - we'll compare them against our authors, their insights and their emotions, to truly see who has that inside edge. 

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It's hard to believe we're already 6 weeks into the NBA season, tipoff only feels like it was yesterday. Teams are approaching the 20 game mark, and we're beginning to find out with decent sample sizes how good these teams truly are.

On today's Man vs Machine segment, we'll be focusing on the two late games of the slate as the Utah Jazz head to Sacramento to take on the Kings, whilst the LA Clippers visit Portland to play against the Blazers.

Utah @ Sacramento

The struggling Utah Jazz head to Sacramento to take on a Kings side still above .500. De'Aaron Fox has led a young Sacramento roster to a bright start, 10-9 on the season and sitting 8th in the West.

Utah meanwhile has had a disappointing start to the season, particularly at home. They sit at 8-11 on the season, ranked 14th in the West. Things will turn around for the Jazz no doubt, but through 19 games they are not the same team that finished last year so strongly.

Key Stats and Trends: Utah has been horrible at home at 2-5, but respectable on the road at 6-6 including 5-7 ATS. It's their offense that's really let them down on their travels, ranked 27th posting a meagre 101.1 points per 100 possessions.

Sacramento are 5-3 at home, including 6-1-1 ATS. Nobody has had an easy time visiting the Kings this season (how weird is that to say!?), and it's behind a strong defensive effort, ranked 5th holding teams to 102.6 points per 100. The Kings are backing up from a tough loss to Golden State last night, but I think we can take the points with confidence.

Key Play: Sacramento +4.5

LA Clippers @ Portland

Two of the Western Conference's hottest teams matchup at the Moda Center, as the Clippers visit the Blazers. The Clippers have jumped out of the blocks, startling the entire league with a 12-6 start that has them sitting 2nd in the Western Conference.

Portland are not far behind them in 5th, thanks to a 12-7 start. The Blazers have shown the importance of continuity, not panicking after a disastrous Playoff exit last season via a sweep. Both teams will certainly fancy their chances in this one.

Key Stats and Trends: the Clippers have already visited Portland this season, losing 116-105. Despite their hot start and an 8-1 home record, the Clips are just 4-5 on the road. Their defensive rating has been what's killed them, ranked 21st leaking 112.1 points per 100.

Portland have been very tough to beat at home, 7-2 on the season and 7-2 ATS. They are ranked in the top 10 in Offensive Rating (8th, 113.2 per 100), Defensive Rating (9th, 103.9 per 100) and Net Rating (4th, +9.4 per 100). Too many signs point to the Blazers, so take the small spread and back them in.

Key Play: Portland -4.5

Week Record: 0-0

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