Man vs Machine: NFL Week 11

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We’re 10 weeks into the NFL season and right now it’s pretty clear who holds the power. The Chiefs, Rams & Saints are firmly cemented at the top of the NFL hierarchy with a couple of AFC powerhouses in the Chargers and Steelers closing in with their impressive win streaks. 

Behind these five teams, it becomes incredibly murky. There are currently nine NFC teams vying for the remaining four playoff spots (with two divisions wide open) and six AFC teams duelling for the remaining two playoff spots (with the AFC South wide open). 

Included in the murky waters are the reigning Super Bowl Champions. At 4-5, the Philadelphia Eagles are on the outside looking in and could potentially be the 17th team in NFL history (of 52) to miss the playoffs just a year removed from winning the Super Bowl. 

It doesn’t get much easier for the Eagles here in Week 11 as they travel to the Mercedes Benz dome to take on the 8-1 New Orleans Saints. That match is one of many great clashes that Week 11 has to offer but they all fail to live up the hype surrounding the blockbuster battle between the Chiefs and Rams. 

The 9-1 Rams will host the 9-1 Chiefs at the Coliseum in what is just the fifth meeting since 1970 between teams with one or fewer losses in Week 11 or later. 

Both these games will be incredibly exciting but both are extremely hard to get a read on, so here are our five plays for Week 11 after going 4-1 in Week 10:

THE GAME: DALLAS COWBOYS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

WHEN: MONDAY 5:00am AEST

THE PLAY: Falcons -3

After starting the season 1-4, the Atlanta Falcons managed to fight their way back to 4-4 before dropping their last game on the road against the saucy Hue Jackson-less Browns. The Falcons return home here with a great chance to keep their slim playoff hopes alive against the 4-5 Cowboys. 

We like the spot here for the Falcons because they are so much better at home on the turf than on the road on grass. The turf indoors suits their style of offense. The Falcons average 32.2 points at home this season while only putting up 20.8 on the road. 

Atlanta, who are only 3 point favourites, have a great record at home against conference opponents with a 15-2 record straight up and 12-5 against the spread record in their last 17 home games against NFC teams. 

Dallas have been an inconsistent team all season long, posting a 1-4 ATS record following a win. That inconsistency mostly lies on the offensive side of the ball as their defense has been rock solid for most of the season, ranking third in the NFL in points allowed. 

That ranking is a little inflated given that six of the nine offenses they’ve faced this season rank in the bottom 10 in yards per game. This Falcons offense is easily the biggest test they have had to date. The Cowboys should be able to move the ball well against the Falcons but they are a lot easier to pass on than run on which is the opposite of what the Cowboys like to do. 

While the Stats Insider Model has no real read on this one with no edge currently on the board, we’ll take the Falcons to cover the 3 point spread here and force the Cowboys to a 1-5 outright record on the road. 

THE GAME: CAROLINA PANTHERS @ DETROIT LIONS

WHEN: Monday 5:00am AEST

THE PLAY: Over 51

This play is pretty simple for us: both teams are far superior on offense than they are on defense. The matchups play really into what should be a high scoring affair, even if it’s just from Carolina themselves. The Detroit defense, despite the presence of “genius” new Head Coach Matt Patricia are absolutely atrocious on defense. 

The Lions defense gives up 362 yards per game including a whopping 132.7 rushing yards per game and faces a ground game that boasts Christian McCaffrey and Cam Newton. The 7th ranked DVOA offense of the Panthers, fresh off 10 days rest after an embarrassing showing against the Steelers, should make easy work against the 30th ranked DVOA defense of the Lions. 

On the other side of the ball you have the 19th ranked DVOA offense of the Lions take on the 24th ranked DVOA defense of the Panthers. While the Lions offense hasn’t quite been at it’s best the last two weeks, it is in a much better spot here at home after facing the 7th & 1st ranked DVOA defenses on the road in the Vikings and the Bears. 

Carolina's defense rank 26th in points allowed per drive and are ranked in the bottom 10 in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game on the road. The Lions should utilize Kerryon Johnson with Marvin Jones out with injury and Golden Tate now on the Philadelphia Eagles.  

Both teams have had six of their last nine games go Over and the total has gone Over in four of the last five meetings between the sides. 51 points is a pretty low total but 2018 standards and we think these teams will produce plenty of scoring. Take the Over. 

THE GAME: PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

WHEN: Monday 5:00am AEST

THE PLAY: Jaguars +6

When you look at the form of these two teams, it seems kinda crazy to be taking the Jaguars here. The Steelers have won five straight with their last victory against the Panthers being their most impressive of the season. Jacksonville, after knocking off the Patriots in majestic fashion, have since lost five straight. 

These factors, albeit important, have led to quite an inflated line of six points. That’s a lot of points between two former playoff teams no matter the form. This is still mostly the same Jaguars team that beat Big Ben and the Steelers twice last season at Heinz field and get to play them on their own field in front of their fans.

Jacksonville know how to play this team tough and as a result of their recent struggles find themselves backed into a corner outside of the playoff picture. This Jaguars defense is still ranked inside the top 10 in DVOA and know exactly how to rattle Big Ben, forcing 7 turnovers (6 interceptions & 1 Fumble) from him across their two meetings last season. 

Pittsburgh have only averaged 15 points per game in the Roethlisberger era when playing the Jaguars in Jacksonville (this includes games when the Jaguars weren’t even good). 

Given all of the above and Pittsburgh’s horrible 3-8 ATS record across their last 11 games when playing Jacksonville, we are going to take the Jaguars +6 and wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Jaguars win this outright. 

The Steelers are due that one awful road game they trot out every season. This is a play that we’re may wind up kicking ourselves over but it is very comforting to know that the Stats Insider Model likes the Jaguars in this spot as well.

THE GAME: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ NEW YORK GIANTS

WHEN: Monday 5:00am AEST

THE PLAY: Tampa Bay +2

In a week filled with blockbuster fixtures, this game is certainly not one of them. Both teams have a combined 5-13 straight up record and 7-11 ATS record coming into this match. After their hot Fitzmagic start, the Buccaneers have dropped six of their last seven games and the Giants are still looking for that elusive first home win of the season. 

Speaking of home wins, that is something the Giants have struggled with for quite some time boasting a putrid 2-10 straight up record and 4-8 ATS record in their last 12 home games. 

You know what’s even more embarrassing than the Giants home record? Putting up over 500 yards of offense and only scoring three points. That is exactly what the Tampa Bay Buccaneers did last week against Washington. 

The Buccaneers went interception, punt, missed field goal, field goal, end of first half, missed field goal, interception, fumble, fumble and end of game across their 10 drives as they became the first team in NFL history to record 450 yards of total offense and still finish with 3 or fewer points. 

To put things in perspective, the New Orleans Saints put up 8 more yards and just 48 more points against the Bengals. It’s because of this very reason alone that we like the Bucs this week, they can’t possibly be that inefficient again and should continue their strong passing game form while applying plenty of pressure on Eli Manning who has been sacked 32 times already this season (career high).  

The Giants showed signs of improvement last week against the 49ers and should have some success moving the ball against a Bucs defense that allows a league-worst 32.3 points per game but these are two very similar teams across the board and you’re getting 1.5 to 2 points on the team that ranks 11th in net yards per play against the 20th ranked team in that metric. Fitzmagic not Fitztragic this week.

THE GAME: OAKLAND RAIDERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

WHEN: Monday 8:05am AEST

THE PLAY: Under 41

All the focus this week is on the Rams hosting the Chiefs, the #2 ranked DVOA team facing the #1 ranked DVOA team. But what they really should be focusing on is the clash between the 31st ranked DVOA team and the 32nd ranked DVOA team to find out who really is the worst team in the NFL. 

Sign us up for this one! We find the beauty in the ugliness when it comes the National Football League. Anyways we like the Under 41 and we also are leaning towards taking the Cardinals -3.5 at home as well. 

When you look at both these teams it’s hard to visualise a high scoring affair. Both teams are rebuilding and have a combined 3-15 record straight up so far this season. There a plenty of statistics that point us toward a low scoring slugfest here. 

Both teams are in the bottom third in yards per play (Arizona last with 4.0 & Oakland 24th with 5.5), both are in the bottom half of the league in plays per game (Arizona is 32nd with 55.7 & Oakland are 22nd with 62.3), both are in the bottom third in First Downs per game (Arizona are 32nd with 14.6 & Oakland are 26th with 19), both teams average 1.2 redzone touchdowns per game (27th & 28th in the league) and Oakland are 29th in the NFL in Redzone Scoring Percentage (TDs only) with a 42.31% conversion rate.

Last but not least it’s worth noting that the Raiders have only scored 9 points in the last two weeks and the Cardinals have had four of their five home games finish under. Despite the low total, we’re still playing the under here.

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