Man vs Machine: NFL Week 12

Sports predictions are a relatively new concept in Australia. As sports fans and punters, we are accustomed to hearing opinions, sometimes mixed in with historical stats and trends, on how a game is likely to pan out. We also form our own expert opinion based on knowledge of the game.

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From an entertainment perspective, Week 11 of the National Football League was as good as they come. The Week started with an exciting Thursday Night Football Match with Aaron Rodgers heaving bombs but not outlasting Russell Wilson with Mike McCarthy weighing him down. 

The Week finished with one of the greatest regular season games of all time. An 105 point thriller between two of the very best offenses we have ever seen with star power across the board. Jared Goff, Pat Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Todd Gurley, Tyreek Hill & Aaron Donald all put their stamps on this game but in the end it was a guy named Samson Ebukam who was the difference. 

In between the bookend matches of Week 11 were another eleven matches, nine of which were decided by five points or less. The only blowouts of the entire week were Andrew Luck and the Colts making mince-meat of the Titans and the defending Super Bowl Champions being steamrolled by the Saints. 

Week 12 has a lot to live up given the quality of Week 11 and an early glance of the slate doesn’t look promising. While Thanksgiving shall provide some great divisional matchups the best games of the Week are Packers @ Vikings and Seahawks @ Carolina. Fortunately Week 12 does provide plenty of betting options after a pretty square Week 11. Here's our best for the Week:

THE GAME: ATLANTA FALCONS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

WHEN: FRIDAY 12:20pm AEST

THE PLAY: Atlanta +13

This number is just ridiculously too high. As good as the Saints are going (they’re Super Bowl favourites for a reason), 13 points is a massive amount to be giving arguably their biggest rival of the past decade. Outside of the Steelers & Ravens, this is probably the best rivalry in the NFL.  

CG Technology, a Vegas sportsbook, does preseason lines for every single game in the NFL and the spread for this particular fixture was New Orleans -3. That number has increased a whole 10 points in just 11 Weeks.

Since 2012, these teams have played each other 13 times. The average margin of victory across these matchups is 7.15 points. A win of 13 or more points has only happened twice and both of those were by Atlanta. Across that stretch the biggest victory by the Saints has been 10 points (they’ve done that twice). The 7 losses by the Falcons in this matchup has been by an average margin of 5.85 points. 

No matter the circumstances, games between these two teams always managed to be close. The Falcons know how to go into the Super-Dome and win or at the very least hang tough. While nearly every metric points to a massive blowout to the Saints we’ll place our faith in the dirty birds as nearly a two-touchdown underdog. In this matchup, underdogs have covered in eight of the past 10 meetings. Falcons cover the massive spread on a short week.

THE GAME: OAKLAND RAIDERS @  BALTIMORE RAVENS

WHEN: Monday 5:00am AEST

THE PLAY: Oakland +11 [Only if Lamar Jackson starts at Quarterback]

This play is on the proviso that Joe Flacco will be inactive for the second straight week and that Lamar Jackson will get the start at QB. If Flacco is back in the lineup we will be steering clear of this one and this isn’t because we don’t think Flacco is a leaps and bounds a better quarterback than Jackson. 

It’s just that 11 points is a quite a large spread for the Ravens to give up with Lamar still finding his way as a passer in the NFL. Jackson got it done on the ground racking up 117 yards on 27 carries (that is the most carries by a quarterback in the Super Bowl era) but managed just 150 yards on 19 pass attempts. 

Oakland are bad across the board on defense but are especially vulnerable through the air, ranking 32nd in pass defense in DVOA. If Flacco plays, his deep bombs to John Brown could break the game open. With Jackson, expect plenty more running and long drives chewing up the clock. 

The Ravens ran the ball a whopping 54 times last week and only put up 24 points against the worst defense in the NFL in the process - Cincinnati rank 32nd in opponent yards per game this season and have an allowed an average of 496 yards in their last 3 games. 

We expect a similar game-plan here with the Ravens just trying to stay afloat until Flacco returns. A double-digit spread is a lot to give up especially when the Total is set at 43 points and the favourite is running a Wing-T Offense. We can’t see the Ravens putting up enough points to cover the 11 point spread. 

THE GAME: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

WHEN: Monday 5:00am AEST

THE PLAY: Tampa Bay -3

Another week, another man vs machine play from us. The Stats Insider model has Shanahan’s boys as a strong play with a 9% edge on the 49ers at the +3.5 spread. There are plenty of flat 3’s still out there though and that has us reluctantly leaning towards the Buccaneers. 

Why the reluctance? Well, the Buccaneers have hardly been the model of consistency this season but this is the easiest matchup in weeks. In a league that features offenses like the Saints, Rams and Chiefs it is actually the Bucs and their conveyor belt of quarterbacks that lead the league in yards per game. 

The issue they have faced recently is turning all of those yards and Redzone trips into points. Although Winston is prone to a turnover or two, he’ll be much better in the redzone than Ryan Fitzpatrick has been in the past fortnight. Proof of Fitzpatrick’s peak incompetence was tweeted by Pewter Report’s Trevor Sikkema. 

The main hurdle for a cover is the putrid Bucs defense which is giving up a god-awful 32.9 points per game (32nd) but the 49ers are only averaging 23 points a game (18th in the NFL) & are 0-5 straight up in their last 5 road games. The Bucs are 7-1 straight up in their last 8 games at home against teams win a losing record, we think that’ll be 8-1 with a six-point victory here.

THE GAME: NEW YORK GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

WHEN: Monday 5:00am AEST

THE PLAY: Philadelphia -5.5

We know it’s crazy to pick the Eagles here just a week removed from the biggest ever defeat by a defending Super Bowl champion in NFL history but you’re getting less than a touchdown because the lowly New York Giants managed to scrape together a couple of back to back wins against some trash cans. And the Giants were hardly convincing in doing so. 

Over their past two wins, the Giants have had a +6 turnover advantage but only won by a combined seven points. Against the Bucs, the Giants had a +4 turnover differential but only won the game by 3 points. The average scoring margin of teams getting a turnover advantage of 4+ is 16.7 points.  The Bucs also outgained the Giants 510 to 539 yards. 

A big part of the Giants increased offensive showing recently was the lack of pressure the Bucs & 49ers placed on Eli Manning. That won’t be the case here. It will be a different story to what transpired last week with the Saints O-Line, which held up remarkably well against the Eagles pass rush. 

After last weeks embarrassment, look for the Eagles to dial it up back to last year and be very dominant up front and in particular take advantage of the Giant mismatch (pun intended) of Fletcher Cox & Brandon Graham squaring off against Jamon Brown & Chad Wheeler. 

The Eagles duo have notched up 91.2 & 86.4 pass rushing grades on PFF while the Giants right-hand side have pass blocking grades of 47.3 & 68.2. Elite run stuffer Timmy Jernigan is back this week for Philly and will play a vital role in slowing down Quadzilla Saquon Barkley. Look for the Eagles to get to Eli early and often as they notch up a double-digit win similar to their 34-13 victory against big blue on the road back in Week 6.

THE GAME: CLEVELAND BROWNS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

WHEN: Monday 5:00am AEST

THE PLAY: Cleveland +3.5 [Over 47.5 as well if AJ Green is active].

A lot of this play will hinge on the status of superstar wide receiver AJ Green. The Bengals offense is just not the same without him. He brings so much to the table. We mentioned a few weeks ago that Andy Dalton averages half a touchdown less a game without Green, so if he is indeed out then we’ll avoid the Over play but at the same time feel more confident in the Browns covering the spread and a potential outright win. 

After a 4-1 start to the season, the Bengals have now dropped four of their last five matches and given up incredible amounts of yardage on defense in the process. The Bengals Defense has established itself as one of the worst in the league in recent weeks ranking 28th in yards per play allowed, 32nd in yards allowed per game and 31st in points allowed per game (allowing 38 points a game across their last five!). 

This defense, who couldn’t even slow down Lamar Jackson in a gimmick offense, now face Baker Mayfield who is coming off his best game as a professional QB where he posted the highest passer rating (151.3) in NFL history by a rookie attempting at least 20 passes. 

Without Hue & Haley, Mayfield has thrived. The bye also gave the Browns some time to get some bodies back on defense, they’re still a top 10 DVOA defense that should be stout enough here. This is a fantastic matchup for the Browns who should be quite dangerous down the stretch.

NOTE: If the status of AJ Green or Joe Flacco changes, we will consider the Vikings -2.5 (if it ever gets there) at home. We like the matchup of the Vikings WR’s against the Packers corners. We’ll also consider the overlooked Seahawks getting a little extra juice on the field goal with the +3.5 on the road against the Panthers. Listen to The Punt Return podcast to hear our thoughts on all the Week 12 action.

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