Man vs Machine: NFL Week 13

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The 2018 NFL season has been a wild wild ride through twelve weeks but it is slowly starting to sort itself out. The line in the sand is drawn and we can start to look ahead at what games have detrimental impacts on the playoff picture and standings. The state of the NFL is pretty clear right now:

• The Steelers, Patriots & Texans are playing for the other 1st Round Bye spot alongside the Chiefs in the AFC.

• The 10-1 Saints and the 10-1 Rams are fighting for the #1 Seed and Home-field advantage in the NFC.

• The Chargers, barring absolute disaster, are all but locked into the #5 Seed.

• The Colts, Ravens & Broncos are fighting for the last AFC playoff spot.

• The Cowboys, Eagles & to a lesser degree the Redskins are fighting for the NFC East.

• The First Runner up in the NFC East, Vikings, Seahawks & Panthers are fighting for the NFC Wildcard spots. 

So now that we have the facts, we’re voting yes to Week 13 and our five best plays:

THE GAME: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ DALLAS COWBOYS

WHEN: FRIDAY 12:20pm AEST

THE PLAY: Saints -7 & Under 52.5

We originally had no opinion in this one but after doing some research we found ourselves coming back to the Saints -7. Yes, their cover last week against the Falcons (who fumbled the ball THREE TIMES in the red zone) was a little lucky, and yes they’re on the road here BUT the Saints are 5-0 straight up and against the spread in 5 road games this season with an average winning margin of just over two touchdowns. That’s impressive as hell. 

Plus they match up really well against the Cowboys. The Saints are the best team in the NFL against the rush ranking 1st in opponent rushing yards per game, yards per rush attempt and opponent rushing first downs per game. They’ll be effective in slowing down Ezekiel Elliott while Marshon Lattimore, who has been in stellar form, should do a great job of slowing down Amari Cooper.

Looking at DVOA, the 21st ranked Cowboys aren’t really elite in any facet; they rank 24th in offense, 13th on defense and 24th in special teams while third ranked Saints rank 4th on offense, 14th on defense and 9th in special teams. The Saints do so many more things better than the Cowboys. This will be the hardest defense the Saints have faced since the Ravens in Week 6 but nothing can stop this juggernaut offense, it can only be slowed down (Dallas rank 3rd in the NFL allowing just 19.4 Points Per Game). 

New Orleans will put up enough points to cover the seven point spread because they should have a good shot at limiting Dallas to under 20 total points like their previous three opponents. While the Over has hit in eight of the last 11 Thursday Night Football games with an average of 54.2 points per game, we like the under here because of the reasons above. The Saints continue their strong 9-3 against the spread record versus the Cowboys while keeping that total under 52.5 points. 

THE GAME: CLEVELAND BROWNS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

WHEN: Monday 5:00am AEST

THE PLAY: Over 48 [Cleveland +6] 

The Browns are 0-4 straight up and ATS in their last four games against the Texans with an average losing margin of 15 points. So why are we picking Cleveland? Well for one, these aren’t the same Cleveland Browns we have all loved to bet against and make fun of in recent years. These Cleveland Browns have a new aura and swagger surrounding them and it all stems from Baker Mayfield. 

Since the Browns organization released the Hue Jackson & Todd Haley shackles off Mayfield’s feet he has been dynamite. In the Kitchens’ offense Mayfield has a produced a 9:1 touchdown to interception ratio, only been sacked twice and has an average passer rating of 130 all while throwing the ball much further down the field. 

Mayfield has been maligned by many all week for his comments about Hue Jackson but note how former Browns players like Joe Thomas and opponents like Leighton Vander Esch have rallied behind the refreshingly honest quarterback. Mayfield is both his team’s leader and spirit animal and the Browns organization is trending in the right direction because of him. As you can tell, we’re all in on the Browns the rest of the season. 

The Browns aren’t the only offense in this matchup on a hot streak, the Deshaun Watson led Texans are as well. Cleveland and Houston rank 9th and 12th respectively in points per game across their last 3 games as well as 10th and 15th in yards per play across their last 3. This game has all the makings of a shootout with both quarterbacks and running backs in superb form. Lamar Miller & Nick Chubb have especially been haunting opposing defense of late. 

We expect both teams to put up plenty of points and force this total over 50 points.  The Texans are the first team in NFL history to win eight consecutive contests after starting a season 0-3. While this is a truly astonishing feat, we still think they are a little overrated. All but two of their wins have been less than convincing and they do only boast a 2-3 ATS record at home this season. The Browns have been road warriors this season and we think they’ll cover the six point spread in this shootout.

THE GAME: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

WHEN: Monday 8:05am AEST

THE PLAY: Kansas City -14

Death, Taxes and Andy Reid after a bye.

Andy Reid is an absolute weapon when given an extra week to prepare and boasts an incredible 17-9 against the spread and 20-6 straight up record coming off a bye. 

Kansas City also a boast an equally impressive is 11-4 straight up and against the spread record in its last 15 games at Oakland. This is simple, take the Chiefs. 

THE GAME: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

WHEN: Monday 12:15pm AEST

THE PLAY: Pittsburgh -3 [only at the flat 3]

Listeners of The Woot and Wye Show and The Punt Return know that we are BIG Chargers fans, leading the bandwagon for them for many a season now. Betting against them here in primetime is killing us but we like the spot here at home for the Steelers. Pittsburgh are just a much much better team at home. Their home/road splits are quite staggering. 

Pittsburgh’s average scoring margin at home is 10.6 compared with 2.3 away, their points per game is 35.4 at home compared with just 23.2 away and Ben Roethlisberger’s QB rating is 107.9 at home and drops to just 87.3 on the road. Their offense is an incredible 12.2 points better at Heinz Field. 

We also like that this game has been flexed into primetime. Pittsburgh is 14-1 straight up in their last 15 night games with an average margin of just below two touchdowns (13.14) across those fifteen games. While this Chargers team has been fantastic all season, their losses to the better teams in the competition are cause for concern. 

Both the Chiefs and Rams beat them by double digits and seven of their eight wins are against teams that are currently below .500. The only above average team they beat all season is the Seattle Seahawks. The Chargers also come into this match without one of it’s biggest weapons in Melvin Gordon, who has been Gurley-esque all season long for the Chargers. 

Many will point out that Austin Ekeler is a fine replacement and actually averages more yards per catch and run than Gordon but that is a result of Gordon’s workload and presence on the field. Ekeler is more effective as a change of pace back and utilized in split back formations. While the sample size is tiny, Ekeler only averaged 3.5 yards per carry in Gordon’s absence back in Week 7 as opposed to the 6.3 over the last month in a complementary role. 

We expect the Chargers, especially that improved defense with Joey Bosa back in the lineup, to make a game of this one but we like the Steelers to continue their perfect 5-0 against the spread record after a loss (since 2017) at home here.  The Steelers cover the spread, get the win and set up a Week 15 showdown against New England for the #2 Seed in the AFC. 

NOTE:

We’re also taking the Broncos -4.5 this week on the road against Cincinnati, check out The Punt Return Podcast for that one: 

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