Manikato Stakes Betting Preview

One of the best weekends of the year, punters! Personally, outside of the Warrnambool carnival, Manikato-Cox Plate weekend is my favourite time to punt and to enjoy the festival-like atmosphere of the track. 

As if I wasn’t excited enough, now we have the benefits of the Stats Insider model which has returned some incredible results in its infancy, including the exacta in The Everest, which returned 81 big ones on the VIC TAB. Day one followers would be doing quite well for themselves, and with the model learning more and more along the way, we’re sure to be in for some big results during the rest of the Spring Carnival.

A Cox Plate preview is on the way, but for the meantime we focus on Friday night’s feature event: the 1200m Manikato Stakes at Moonee Valley.

With the exception of CHATAUQUA (who loved doing everything his own way rather than the conventional way), every Manikato since HAY LIST in 2010 has been won by leaders or on-pacers who have been able to cruise along the inside part of the track and pinch an easy run around that narrow final turn. For that reason, we expect a hectic pace upfront, with the likes of JUNGLE EDGE, INVINCIBLE STAR and FLEET REVIEW likely to push forward from their middle gates to give SUNLIGHT and HOUTZEN something to chase. The only question is whether or not they overdo it and bring the swoopers into the race.

The model has worked its magic for the Manikato, rating the runners out of 100 as always, and we’ll go through its selections in order:

KEMENTARI (Barrier 12)

SI Rating: 98

Freshened, the Randwick Guineas winners is a consistent Group 1 performer. The SI Ratings top pick. Looks like Cummings is setting out to replicate the 2017 Tony McEvoy method of winning this race with a fresh miler, and this one is capable. Trialled sharply in blinkers last Monday on a heavy Randwick track and goes better on the firm surfaces. Ran on well over 1400m in the Memsie despite being three wide and probably better suited to this distance. Has enough turn of foot to negate the bad draw, can either jump well and burn across to find a soft run or come home from five wide. 

SUNLIGHT (3)

SI Rating: 97

Very well suited to this race. Fillies can find it tough in the Manikato but she well and truly belongs here with a light weight, a great draw and her pure unadulterated speed. Won on pace at Caulfield last start where she was back to her best. Drawn beautifully to get an easy run behind the leaders. Unlucky not to win the Golden Slipper last season. She gets to fly freely with 51kg and with a lightweight specialist (Tim Clark) doing the steering after he recently won the Flight Stakes with Oohood. McEvoy’s best chance of back-to-back Manikatos.

BRAVE SMASH (9)

SI Rating: 96

A modest run in an Everest slog last start. Was absolutely not suited to the heavy track so that was a definite forgive run. The blinkers go back on. Already proven on the track, having flown home in the G1 Moir Stakes behind the classy Viddora. Barrier 9 may appear a turn-off but he prefers a bit of space in running. If the speed upfront doesn’t hold on, he will be leading the chasing pack with Kementari. 

HOUTZEN (4)

SI Rating: 93

Fair effort last two runs. Freshened for this race. The second behind Nature Strip was good. Drawn to be on speed close to the rail and has the pace to run them all ragged. 1200m is her pet distance but just a bit concerned that an intense battle upfront will be to her detriment. Furthermore, she is yet to win anything greater than girls-only Group 3s so I do prefer others. 

VOODOO LAD (8)

SI Rating: 91

A proven performer at the track albeit in 2016, old Voodoo Lad still has the speed to compete with elite sprinters. His only loss at the Valley was in the Moir where he made late ground on the likes of She Will Reign and Viddora. Three lengths away in the Schillaci and will be better over the pet distance. Has placed twice in G1 level but is more suited to the G3 races. Can’t knock a Weir runner with confidence though!

MALAGUERRA (1)

SI Rating: 90

Will be a popular pick at the odds. He flies fresh (7: 5-1-0) and is drawn to get every chance. Won the G2 Australia Stakes over the MV 1200m and also placed in this race last year. A Cranbourne jumpout on Monday suggested he’s in good nick. Melham is a very smart pilot and he should have the option of either giving them something to chase or riding quietly on the rail forward of midfield and taking advantage of a hot pace. It’s just hard to know if a 7yo off the track for a year can hack it in this class, but he is the equal track record holder for this distance (1:09.29) so you can’t rule him out if he’s up for it.

U S NAVY FLAG (2)

SI Rating: 89

Aidan O’Brien has brought him here to win an Aussie G1 and I think this could be the one. He wasn’t suited by the Everest conditions and will improve boldly on the good (4). Won the July Cup at Newmarket in England over the 1200 (as well as two other UK G1s), running 1:11.32 on a good track, beating home many of the other raiders in this field. Drawn to get a soft rail run behind the hot speed and, with many Manikato winners of late cutting corners on the rail around that final bend, he’ll have every chance of being that kind of contender. 

INVINCIBLE STAR  (7)

SI Rating: 85

Could be the big improver. Freshened for this and does her best racing in Victoria, including two G3 wins and a narrow second to the great Merchant Navy in last year’s Coolmore, where she ran a slick 1:09.10. It’s all gone wrong since a third to Redzel and a second to Ball Of Muscle in an Everest lead-up. Waterhouse & Bott have wiped the slate clean since she lost her Everest slot and have targeted the Melbourne carnival instead. Can’t be ruled out. 

TULIP (10)

SI Rating: 80

Out of her depth. Races well at MV but failed to win a BM90 and a listed race at the track in this prep. Has been caught wide before and wouldn’t bank on her being good enough to get out of a sticky situation against this field - maybe in listed/G3 grade, but not here. 

SPIRIT OF VALOR (14)

SI Rating: 74

Flew home in the Schillaci Stakes at Caulfield last start, running a blistering final 400 and beating home Voodoo Lad, Fleet Review and Intelligence Cross. Well suited but the draw kills off a lot of hope. Mostly goes around in Group 2 & 3 in the UK but has run a couple of 1:10s over the 1200m which would have given me a reason to include him in the exotics if he was drawn better. 

JUNGLE EDGE (6)

SI Rating: 70

Well up in grade here, 8yo gelding out of his depth and would much prefer on a soft track (yet to win on good). Seventh in the G1 Moir but needs conditions to suit to tackle this grade. Will add early speed to the race but this is too hard.

SPRIGHT (13)

SI Rating: 61

Drawn very awkwardly and will need to go back. If absolutely everything goes her way in the race she can surprise and run a place, though that kind of luck comes around once in a full moon at the Valley. Oliver will be steering her in the right direction though. That run in the Moir Stakes behind Viddora and Brave Smash was an eye catcher and shows that she can become much more than a Queensland winter sprinter. This is too much to ask of her.

FLEET REVIEW (11)

SI Rating: 54

Didn’t impress a great deal first-up at Caulfield, though he was held up for a run so we didn’t see his best. Third in the July Cup to US Navy Seal at 50/1 which suggests he could be capable of a surprise. Ran 1:10.20 while placing in a Group 2 at Naas in May - a replication of that wouldn’t be the worst time run in this race (the 1200m track record is 1:09.29). Gate 11 doesn’t help though. A place in this field would be a surprise, but I wouldn’t want to leave him out of the quaddie just in case. 

INTELLIGENCE CROSS (5)

SI Rating: 35

Typically a backmarker without the closing sectionals to catch them, he looks out of his depth and is the least favoured of the O’Brien runners. Did set the early tone in the July Cup (won by US Navy Flag) before dropping away to last, so could press forward here if its another on-pace track. Missed the start in the Schillaci Stakes so badly that he had to pass a jump out on Monday just to keep his place here. Looking elsewhere. 

CHECK OUT OUR FULL MANIKATO STAKES DAY RATINGS

Stats Insider’s Ratings: 2-14-1-10

Aaron Murphy’s selections: 14-2-8-13

Don't forget to follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram!