Melbourne the Most Likely Team to Win the 2023 AFL Premiership
Last updated: Apr 13, 2023, 1:30AM | Published: Apr 12, 2023, 9:22AM
Melbourne is Stats Insider's most likely team to win the 2023 AFL premiership.
According to Stats Insider's AFL predictive model, after a month of football, the Demons have a 20.6% chance of winning this year's premiership.
Melbourne jumped ahead of Collingwood following contrasting fortunes in Round 4.
The Demons backed up their 50-point win over the Swans by recording a 126-63 win over the Eagles. Conversely, Collingwood suffered its first loss of the season, against Brisbane by 33 points, and subsequently slipped to second position in our premiership probabilities.
Betfair agrees with our AFL premiership model and currently has Melbourne as the favourites to win the 2023 flag.
The other team to rise in our 2023 AFL premiership probabilities was Geelong.
After losing its opening three games of 2023, Geelong rose to third in our premiership probabilities following a 82-point win over Hawthorn on Easter Monday.
The Cats are at an 11.1% probability to win the 2023 premiership, just ahead of the Blues at 9.8% and the Tigers, who dropped to fifth after being inside the top three since the pre-season.
READ: Is St Kilda the Best Team in the AFL?
2023 AFL Premiership Probabilities
| Team | Winning Probability |
| Melbourne Demons | 20.6% |
| Collingwood Magpies | 17.2% |
| Geelong Cats | 11.1% |
| Carlton Blues | 9.8% |
| Richmond Tigers | 8.0% |
| Brisbane Lions | 7.4% |
| St Kilda Saints | 7.1% |
| Sydney Swans | 6.7% |
All probabilities are correct at the time of publishing.
St Kilda Fourth in Top Four Probabilities
St Kilda's undefeated start to 2023 has seen the Saints rise to fourth in our top-four probabilities.
The Saints sit atop the AFL ladder as the only team to win every game in 2023 after defeating the Suns by 53 points in Round 4.
St Kilda is at a 41.4% probability to make the top four, sitting only behind Melbourne, Collingwood and Carlton.
The next month of football is where the Saints' credentials will be put to the test, with matches against the Magpies, Blues and Power across the next three weeks.
MORE: 2023 AFL Schedule Difficulty
The biggest test for St Kilda comes this Sunday, as the Saints play Collingwood in Adelaide as part of Gather Round.
The Saints are a 30% chance of winning the Round 5 match up against the Magpies, which means their premiership probabilities should rise if they are able to defy expectations.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
