Melbourne Rise up the 2023 AFL Premiership Probabilities
Last updated: Apr 4, 2023, 4:25AM | Published: Apr 4, 2023, 1:31AM
Melbourne has moved into outright second in premiership probabilities with our data-driven AFL futures model after its 50-point win over Sydney.
The Demons moved into the top four on the AFL ladder following the 134-83 win against the Swans, which saw them rise in our predictive model's probabilities into second at 18%.
Collingwood is still the most probable team to win the 2023 AFL premiership, at 20.7%.
Melbourne's next game is in Perth against an injury-hit Eagles side that is set to be without a number of stars for the Round 4 clash. The Demons have a 91% win probability for the match, the highest of any team so far in 2023.
MORE: 2023 AFL Futures
2023 AFL Premiership Probabilities
| Team | Winning Probability |
| Collingwood Magpies | 20.7% |
| Melbourne Demons | 18.0% |
| Richmond Tigers | 12.8% |
| Carlton Blues | 10.4% |
| Sydney Swans | 9.1% |
| Geelong Cats | 8.0% |
| Brisbane Lions | 5.2% |
| St Kilda Saints | 4.2% |
All probabilities are correct at the time of publishing.
Geelong Drop to Six in Premiership Probabilities
Geelong's winless start to the 2023 AFL season has seen them drop to sixth place in our premiership probabilities after three rounds of football.
The Cats lost to the Gold Coast Suns by 19 points, leaving them as the only team yet to win a game so far in 2023.
As a result, Geelong's premiership probability has dropped to 8% with our AFL futures model.
The change in the Cats' probability has been reflected on the Betfair Exchange, which has dropped them to the sixth line of betting for the flag.
West Coast the Most Likely to Have the Most Losses
The West Coast Eagles are our 2023 AFL model's most likely team to have the most losses.
The Eagles, who lost the derby against Fremantle in Round 3, are now at 32.6% to have the most losses this season, ahead of Hawthorn at 21.3% and North Melbourne at 19.2%.
This differs from the Betfair Exchange, which has Hawthorn as the $1.84 favourite to have the most losses, with the Eagles at $5.
Geelong, which is currently the only winless team in the AFL, is quoted at the $60 mark on the Exchange.
(Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)
