Melbourne vs Brisbane Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 5, 2024
Last updated: Apr 11, 2024, 9:02AM | Published: Apr 7, 2024, 10:18PM
Melbourne will face Brisbane in AFL Round 5 action at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Thursday, commencing at 7:30pm AEST.
Stats Insider's free betting tips for the Melbourne vs Brisbane game, plus the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips, are featured below.
Who Will Win: Melbourne vs Brisbane
Using state-of-the-art machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Thursday's Melbourne-Brisbane AFL match 10,000 times.
Our proven predictive analytics model currently gives the Demons a 72% chance of defeating the Lions in Round 5 of the 2024 AFL season.
More: Melbourne vs Brisbane Match Centre
Melbourne vs Brisbane: Odds
The latest betting odds for Thursday's AFL clash at the Melbourne Cricket Ground are shown below:
- Head to Head: Melbourne $1.55, Brisbane $2.78
- Line: Melbourne -13.5 ($2.12), Brisbane +13.5 ($1.85)
- Total (Over/Under 164.5 Points): Over $2.12, Under $1.86
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, TAB currently has Melbourne at $1.55 and Brisbane at $2.78.
The Demons are 13.5-point favourites against the Lions, with odds of $2.12 currently on offer at TAB.
For the underdog Lions (+13.5) to cover the line, TAB currently has odds of $1.85.
The Over/Under for Melbourne vs Brisbane is set at 164.5 with TAB, which currently has odds for the Over at $2.12 and odds for the Under at $1.86.
According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the Demons (-13.5) have a 52% chance of covering the line, while the 164.5-point Over/Under is considered an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
More: Live Win Probabilities for All Sports
Melbourne vs Brisbane: Best Bets
- Head to Head: Melbourne at $1.55 with (72% probability) 🔥
- Line: Melbourne -13.5 at $2.12 with Betfair (52% probability) 🔥
- Total Points: Over 164.5 at $2.12 with Betfair (50% probability)
When you see a 🔥, that means you've found one of Stats Insider's best tips of the day across all sports.
These Melbourne vs Brisbane betting tips are based on complex modelling and wagering intelligence to help you place smarter bets with your chosen online bookie.
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Melbourne vs Brisbane: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Melbourne vs Brisbane at the Melbourne Cricket Ground this Thursday has Melbourne winning 89-74.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider has full betting coverage of Melbourne vs Brisbane on Thursday, including pre-match predictions, expert tips, and live win probabilities.
Melbourne vs Brisbane: Goal Scorers
Looking for Melbourne vs Brisbane goal kicker tips? The latest data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Melbourne's Bayley Fritsch is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Melbourne vs Brisbane.
Fritsch has an 8.3% chance of kicking the first goal at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, while the Demons star has a 90.0% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the match.
Scroll down for our full list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Scorer Tips
Melbourne
- Bayley Fritsch: 8.3% probability
- Christian Petracca: 5.7% probability
- Ben Brown: 5.6% probability
- Jacob van Rooyen: 4.0% probability
- Tom McDonald: 3.7% probability
Brisbane
- Joe Daniher: 6.4% probability
- Charlie Cameron: 4.9% probability
- Lincoln McCarthy: 4.4% probability
- Eric Hipwood: 4.4% probability
- Zac Bailey: 3.4% probability
Anytime Goal Kicker Tips
Melbourne
- Bayley Fritsch: 90.0% probability
- Christian Petracca: 80.2% probability
- Ben Brown: 79.7% probability
- Jacob van Rooyen: 69.2% probability
- Tom McDonald: 63.7% probability
Brisbane
- Joe Daniher: 83.8% probability
- Charlie Cameron: 78.1% probability
- Lincoln McCarthy: 70.9% probability
- Eric Hipwood: 70.3% probability
- Zac Bailey: 62.7% probability
Our model updates frequently, so bookmark this article for the latest betting analysis before the Melbourne vs Brisbane match at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
As always, see our Best Bets for the best tips for every AFL match, as well as a host of other sports that we offer predictions on.
More: AFL Player Ratings 2024
Melbourne vs Brisbane: Preview
The AFL Round 5 clash between the Demons and Lions at the Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to begin at 7:30pm AEST on Thursday.
- Teams: Melbourne vs Brisbane
- Date: Thursday 11 April 2024
- Time: 7:30pm AEST
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST) unless otherwise noted.
Our Melbourne vs Brisbane predictions are the result of 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, carefully curated by our team of experienced data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are trustworthy and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.
If you decide to use our AFL predictions for betting purposes, it's crucial to gamble responsibly and keep track of your money. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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