Melbourne vs Carlton Prediction and Tips - AFL Semi-Final 2023
Last updated: Sep 15, 2023, 9:31AM | Published: Sep 12, 2023, 5:02AM
Melbourne takes on Carlton in AFL Semi-Final action at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Friday, beginning at 7:50pm AEST.
Stats Insider's free betting tips for Melbourne vs Carlton, plus the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips, are featured in this article.
More: Brownlow Predictor
Who Will Win: Melbourne vs Carlton
Using detailed machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated Friday's Melbourne-Carlton AFL match 10,000 times.
Our proven predictive analytics model currently gives the Demons a 59% chance of defeating the Blues in their AFL semi-final clash.
More: Melbourne vs Carlton Match Centre
Melbourne vs Carlton: Odds
The latest Betfair betting odds for Friday's AFL clash at the Melbourne Cricket Ground are listed below:
- Head to Head: Melbourne $1.69, Carlton $2.42
- Line: Melbourne -6.5 ($1.97), Carlton +6.5 ($2.00)
- Total (Over/Under 155.5 Points): Over $1.92, Under $2.04
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Betfair currently has Melbourne at $1.69 and Carlton at $2.42.
The Demons are 6.5-point favourites against the Blues, with odds of $1.97 currently available at Betfair.
For the underdog Blues (+6.5) to cover the line, Betfair currently has odds of $2.00.
The Over/Under for total points scored is set at 155.5 with Betfair, which currently has odds for the Over at $1.92 and odds for the Under at $2.04.
According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the bookmakers have got it right and both Melbourne and Carlton have a 50% chance of covering the line.
The 155.5-point Over/Under has a 51% chance of going Over.
More: Best Bets Today for All Sports
Melbourne vs Carlton: Best Bets
- Head to Head: Carlton at $2.42 with Betfair
- Line: Carlton +6.5 at $2.00 with Betfair (50% probability)
- Total Points: Under 155.5 at $2.04 with Betfair (0.3% edge)
Our Melbourne vs Carlton predictions are based on detailed modelling and wagering intelligence to provide you with the best possible advice every time.
While the Demons have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Blues to win is our recommended option due to the edge found when comparing our data-led probabilities to the odds currently on offer.
Making use of the edges published on Stats Insider is one of the keys to achieving long-term profitability.
Furthermore, despite the Over being more likely to hit in this game, Under 155.5 is our best bet due to the better odds ($2.04) that are available from Betfair.
More: AFL Brownlow Predictor
Melbourne vs Carlton: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Melbourne vs Carlton at the Melbourne Cricket Ground this Friday has Melbourne prevailing 81-74.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
For more information, click or tap See Matchup.
Stats Insider has full coverage of Melbourne vs Carlton on Friday, including pre-match predictions, the best betting tips, and live scores.
Melbourne vs Carlton: Goal Scorers
Searching for Melbourne vs Carlton goal kicker tips? The data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Carlton's Charlie Curnow is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Melbourne vs Carlton.
Curnow has a 10.3% chance of kicking the first goal at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, while the Blues star has a 92.9% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the game.
Scroll down for the full list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Kicker Tips
Melbourne
- Bayley Fritsch: 7.9% probability
- Kysaiah Pickett: 6.6% probability
- Christian Petracca: 5.6% probability
- Tom McDonald: 5.2% probability
- Kade Chandler: 3.4% probability
Carlton
- Charlie Curnow: 10.3% probability
- Matthew Owies: 5.3% probability
- Jesse Motlop: 5.1% probability
- Matthew Cottrell: 3.4% probability
- David Cuningham: 2.8% probability
Anytime Goal Kicker Tips
Melbourne
- Bayley Fritsch: 88.4% probability
- Kysaiah Pickett: 82.0% probability
- Tom McDonald: 76.2% probability
- Christian Petracca: 76.0% probability
- Kade Chandler: 55.9% probability
Carlton
- Charlie Curnow: 92.9% probability
- Matthew Owies: 74.1% probability
- Jesse Motlop: 72.9% probability
- Matthew Cottrell: 57.3% probability
- Patrick Cripps: 51.6% probability
Remember, our model updates frequently, so bookmark this page for the latest betting predictions before the Melbourne vs Carlton game at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets for the best tips on every AFL match, plus a host of other sports that we offer predictions on.
More: Brownlow Predictor 2023
Melbourne vs Carlton: Preview
The AFL Semi-Final clash between the Demons and Blues at the Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to commence at 7:50pm AEST on Friday.
- Teams: Melbourne vs Carlton
- Date: Friday 15 September 2023
- Time: 7:50pm AEST
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST) unless otherwise stated.
Our predictions for Melbourne vs Carlton have been made thanks to 10,000 data-driven simulations of the match, carefully curated by our team of expert data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are accurate and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.
If you decide to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's important that you gamble responsibly and know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
More on the AFL
Stats Insider is your go-to source for betting on the AFL, with the latest AFL betting news, predictions for every AFL game, and futures odds for the AFL.
