Melbourne vs Geelong Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 8, 2024
Last updated: May 4, 2024, 9:03AM | Published: Apr 29, 2024, 2:33AM
Melbourne will take on Geelong in AFL Round 8 action at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Saturday, beginning at 7:30pm AEST.
Stats Insider's free betting tips for the Melbourne vs Geelong game, plus the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips, are detailed in this article.
Who Will Win: Melbourne vs Geelong
Based on state-of-the-art computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Saturday's Melbourne-Geelong AFL match 10,000 times.
Our leading predictive analytics model currently gives the Cats a 55% chance of winning against the Demons at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
More: Melbourne vs Geelong Match Centre
Melbourne vs Geelong: Odds
The current betting odds for Saturday's AFL clash at the Melbourne Cricket Ground are shown below:
- Head to Head: Melbourne $2.26, Geelong $1.78
- Line: Melbourne +3.5 ($2.02), Geelong -3.5 ($1.95)
- Total (Over/Under 162.5 Points): Over $2.12, Under $1.88
Odds via Betfair are correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Betfair currently has Melbourne at $2.26 and Geelong at $1.78.
The Demons are 3.5-point underdogs against the Cats, with odds of $2.02 currently available at Betfair.
For the favourite Cats (-3.5) to cover the line, Betfair currently has odds of $1.95.
The Over/Under for Melbourne vs Geelong has been set at 162.5 with TAB, which currently has odds for the Over at $2.12 and odds for the Under at $1.88.
According to Stats Insider's model, the Cats (-3.5) have a 51% chance of covering the line, while the Over/Under total of 162.5 points has a 52% chance of going Over.
More: Best Bets for Every AFL Match
Melbourne vs Geelong: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: Melbourne at $2.26 with Betfair (0.3% edge)
- Line: Melbourne +3.5 at $2.02 with Betfair
- Total Points: Over 162.5 at $2.12 with Betfair (52% probability) 🔥
If you see a 🔥, you know you've found one of Stats Insider's best tips for today across any sport.
Stats Insider's Melbourne vs Geelong best bets are based on complex modelling and wagering experience to help you place smarter bets with your chosen online bookie.
And while the Cats have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Demons to win is our recommended option because of the edge found when comparing our data-driven probabilities to the odds currently on offer.
Taking advantage of the edges published here at Stats Insider is crucial to achieving long-term success as a sports bettor.
Even though the Cats are more likely to cover the line, our best bet of Demons +3.5 is based on the probability of that happening, as suggested by our predictive analytics model, and the best odds available.
Looking for further insight on Round 8 AFL action? Matt from Champion Bets has put his knowledge and background as a data scientist to work, finding markets that are easier to win money on.
He then uses this knowledge to provide you with the best bets of every AFL round straight to you.
Click here and use promo code STATS to get 20% off your AFL Champion Bets subscription.
Melbourne vs Geelong: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Melbourne vs Geelong at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Saturday has Geelong winning 83-79.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider has full coverage of Melbourne vs Geelong on Saturday, including pre-match predictions, free betting tips, and live scores.
Melbourne vs Geelong: Goal Scorers
Looking for Melbourne vs Geelong goal kicker tips? The latest data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Geelong's Tom Hawkins is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Melbourne vs Geelong.
Hawkins has a 7.7% chance of kicking the first goal at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, while the Cats star has an 88.6% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the game.
Scroll down for the complete list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Kicker Tips
Melbourne
- Kysaiah Pickett: 5.9% probability
- Bayley Fritsch: 5.7% probability
- Christian Petracca: 4.2% probability
- Jacob van Rooyen: 3.7% probability
- Harrison Petty: 2.9% probability
Geelong
- Tom Hawkins: 7.7% probability
- Jeremy Cameron: 6.5% probability
- Tyson Stengle: 5.6% probability
- Oliver Henry: 5.2% probability
- Gary Rohan: 4.3% probability
Anytime Goal Kicker Tips
Melbourne
- Kysaiah Pickett: 82.1% probability
- Bayley Fritsch: 81.5% probability
- Christian Petracca: 69.8% probability
- Jacob van Rooyen: 64.3% probability
- Harrison Petty: 54.3% probability
Geelong
- Tom Hawkins: 88.6% probability
- Jeremy Cameron: 85.9% probability
- Tyson Stengle: 78.4% probability
- Oliver Henry: 75.8% probability
- Gary Rohan: 66.3% probability
Remember, our model updates frequently, so refresh this page for the latest betting analysis before the Melbourne vs Geelong match at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
As always, see our Best Bets for the best tips on every AFL match, as well as a host of other sports that we offer predictions on.
More: AFL Player Ratings 2024
Melbourne vs Geelong: Preview
The AFL Round 8 clash between the Demons and Cats at the Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to start at 7:30pm AEST on Saturday.
- Teams: Melbourne vs Geelong
- Date: Saturday 4 May 2024
- Time: 7:30pm AEST
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST) unless otherwise noted.
Our Melbourne vs Geelong predictions have been made after running 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, carefully curated by our team of skilled data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are accurate and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.
If you choose to use our AFL predictions for betting purposes, it's crucial to gamble responsibly and keep track of your money. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
More on the AFL
Stats Insider is your go-to source for betting on the AFL, with the latest AFL betting news, predictions for every AFL game, and futures probabilities for the AFL.
