Melbourne vs St Kilda Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 11, 2024
Last updated: May 26, 2024, 4:33AM | Published: May 20, 2024, 9:00AM
Melbourne will sqaure off with St Kilda in AFL Round 11 action at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Sunday, starting at 3:20pm AEST.
Stats Insider's free betting tips for the Melbourne vs St Kilda game, plus the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips, are detailed below.
Who Will Win: Melbourne vs St Kilda
Based on trusted machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Sunday's Melbourne-St Kilda AFL match 10,000 times.
Our proven predictive analytics model gives the Demons a 70% chance of beating the Saints at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
More: Melbourne vs St Kilda Match Centre
Melbourne vs St Kilda: Odds
The current betting odds for Sunday's AFL clash at the Melbourne Cricket Ground are shown here:
- Head to Head: Melbourne $1.40, St Kilda $3.40
- Line: Melbourne -17.5 ($2.00), St Kilda +17.5 ($1.96)
- Total (Over/Under 154.5 Points): Over $2.14, Under $1.83
Odds via Betfair are correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Betfair currently has Melbourne at $1.40 and St Kilda at $3.40.
The Demons are listed as 17.5-point favourites against the Saints, with odds of $2.00 currently available at Betfair.
For the underdog Saints (+17.5) to cover the line, Betfair currently has odds of $1.96.
The Over/Under for Melbourne vs St Kilda has been set at 154.5 with TAB, which currently has odds for the Over at $2.14 and odds for the Under at $1.83.
According to Stats Insider's model, the Saints (+17.5) have a 55% chance of covering the line, while the 154.5-point Over/Under has a 52% chance of staying Under.
More: AFL Premiership 2024 Probabilities and Odds
Melbourne vs St Kilda: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: St Kilda at $3.40 with Betfair (0.9% edge)
- Line: St Kilda +17.5 at $1.96 with Betfair (55% probability) 🔥
- Total Points: Over 154.5 at $2.14 with Betfair (1.4% edge)
When you see a 🔥, you know it's one of Stats Insider's best bets for today across any sport.
Today's Melbourne vs St Kilda betting tips are based on complex modelling and betting intelligence to help you place more informed bets with your chosen online bookie.
While the Demons have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Saints to win is our recommended option due to the edge found when comparing our data-driven probabilities to the odds currently on offer.
Making use of the edges seen here at Stats Insider is pivotal to achieving long-term profitability.
Furthermore, despite the Under being more likely to hit in this game, Over 154.5 is our best bet due to the better odds ($2.14) that are available from Betfair.
Melbourne vs St Kilda: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Melbourne vs St Kilda at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Sunday has Melbourne winning 83-69.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider has full coverage of Melbourne vs St Kilda on Sunday, including pre-match predictions, the best betting tips, and live win probabilities.
Melbourne vs St Kilda: Goal Scorers
Searching for Melbourne vs St Kilda goal kicker tips? The data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Melbourne's Bayley Fritsch is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Melbourne vs St Kilda.
Fritsch has a 6.8% chance of kicking the first goal at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, while the Demons star has an 85.2% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the match.
Scroll down for the complete list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Scorer Tips
Melbourne
- Bayley Fritsch: 6.8% probability
- Christian Petracca: 6.7% probability
- Kysaiah Pickett: 5.7% probability
- Shane McAdam: 5.2% probability
- Jacob van Rooyen: 4.5% probability
St Kilda
- Max King: 6.3% probability
- Jack Higgins: 5.8% probability
- Anthony Caminiti: 3.8% probability
- Darcy Wilson: 3.7% probability
- Mitch Owens: 3.3% probability
Anytime Goal Scorer Tips
Melbourne
- Bayley Fritsch: 85.2% probability
- Christian Petracca: 80.8% probability
- Kysaiah Pickett: 77.5% probability
- Shane McAdam: 74.1% probability
- Jacob van Rooyen: 67.9% probability
St Kilda
- Max King: 82.4% probability
- Jack Higgins: 77.4% probability
- Anthony Caminiti: 67.4% probability
- Darcy Wilson: 58.7% probability
- Mitch Owens: 58.0% probability
Our model updates frequently, so refresh this article for the latest betting tips before the Melbourne vs St Kilda match at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
As always, see our Best Bets for the best tips for every AFL match, plus a host of other sports that we offer predictions on.
More: AFL Player Ratings 2024
Melbourne vs St Kilda: Preview
The AFL Round 11 clash between the Demons and Saints at the Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to start at 3:20pm AEST on Sunday.
- Teams: Melbourne vs St Kilda
- Date: Sunday 26 May 2024
- Time: 3:20pm AEST
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST) unless otherwise stated.
Our Melbourne vs St Kilda predictions have been made after running 10,000 data-driven simulations of the match, carefully curated by our team of expert data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are accurate and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.
If you choose to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's vital to gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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