Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 1, 2024
Last updated: Mar 17, 2024, 1:33AM | Published: Mar 10, 2024, 11:00PM
Melbourne will take on the Western Bulldogs in AFL Round 1 action at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Sunday, starting at 1:00pm AEDT.
Stats Insider's best betting tips for the Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs game, plus the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips, are detailed below.
Who Will Win: Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs
Using detailed machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Sunday's Melbourne-Western Bulldogs AFL match 10,000 times.
Our independent predictive analytics model gives the Demons a 58% chance of defeating the Bulldogs at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
More: Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs Match Centre
Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs: Odds
The current betting odds for Sunday's AFL clash at the Melbourne Cricket Ground are listed below:
- Head to Head: Melbourne $1.58, Bulldogs $2.68
- Line: Melbourne -8.5 ($1.98), Bulldogs +8.5 ($1.99)
- Total (Over/Under 166.5 Points): Over $1.88, Under $2.12
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, TAB currently has Melbourne at $1.58 and the Bulldogs at $2.68.
The Demons are 8.5-point favourites against the Bulldogs, with odds of $1.98 currently on offer at TAB.
For the underdog Bulldogs (+8.5) to cover the line, TAB currently has odds of $1.99.
The Over/Under for Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs is set at 166.5 with TAB, which currently has odds for the Over at $1.88 and odds for the Under at $2.12.
According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the Bulldogs (+8.5) have a 54% chance of covering the line, while the 166.5-point Over/Under has a 51% chance of staying Under.
More: Live Scores for All Sports
Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs: Best Bets
- Head to Head: Bulldogs at $2.68 with (5.2% edge) 🔥
- Line: Bulldogs +8.5 at $1.99 with Betfair (54% probability)
- Total Points: Under 166.5 at $2.12 with Betfair (51% probability)
When you see a 🔥, that means you've found one of our best tips of the day across any sport.
These Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs betting tips are based on detailed simulations and betting experience to give you the best possible advice every day of the year.
While the Demons have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Bulldogs to win is our preferred option due to the 5.2% edge identified when comparing our data-driven probabilities to the odds currently on offer.
Taking advantage of the edges published on Stats Insider is one of the keys to being a profitable sports bettor in the long run.
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Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs at the Melbourne Cricket Ground this Sunday has Melbourne winning 85-80.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider has full betting coverage of Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs on Sunday, including pre-match predictions, top betting tips, and live scores.
Melbourne vs Bulldogs: Goal Scorers
Looking for Melbourne vs Bulldogs goalscorer tips? The latest data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Melbourne's Bayley Fritsch is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Melbourne vs Western.
Fritsch has a 7.4% chance of kicking the first goal at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, while the Demons star has an 88.2% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the game.
Scroll down for our complete list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Scorer Tips
Melbourne
- Bayley Fritsch: 7.4% probability
- Kysaiah Pickett: 5.5% probability
- Ben Brown: 4.8% probability
- Christian Petracca: 4.6% probability
- Tom McDonald: 4.0% probability
Western Bulldogs
- Aaron Naughton: 6.3% probability
- Jamarra Ugle-Hagan: 5.8% probability
- Rory Lobb: 4.8% probability
- Cody Weightman: 3.8% probability
- Marcus Bontempelli: 3.6% probability
Anytime Goal Kicker Tips
Melbourne
- Bayley Fritsch: 88.2% probability
- Kysaiah Pickett: 79.4% probability
- Christian Petracca: 75.6% probability
- Ben Brown: 74.4% probability
- Tom McDonald: 68.7% probability
Western Bulldogs
- Aaron Naughton: 82.8% probability
- Jamarra Ugle-Hagan: 81.0% probability
- Rory Lobb: 73.6% probability
- Cody Weightman: 68.5% probability
- Marcus Bontempelli: 61.1% probability
Remember, our model updates frequently, so refresh this page for the latest betting analysis before the Melbourne vs Bulldogs match at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
As always, check out our Best Bets for betting tips on every AFL match, plus a host of other sports that we offer predictions on.
More: AFL Player Ratings 2024
Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs: Preview
The AFL Round 1 clash between the Demons and Bulldogs at the Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to commence at 1:00pm AEDT on Sunday.
- Teams: Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs
- Date: Sunday 17 March 2024
- Time: 1:00pm AEDT
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT) unless otherwise stated.
Our Melbourne vs Bulldogs predictions are the result of 10,000 data-driven simulations of the match, all curated by our team of experienced data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are trustworthy and reliable, giving you the knowledge you need to make informed decisions with confidence.
If you decide to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's crucial to gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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