Morning Mail: Friday August 24th
Last updated: Mar 4, 2021, 3:16AM | Published: Aug 24, 2018, 12:53AM
There is value all over the place today as the Friday slate gears up with five games across the AFL, NRL and La Liga. We've got five different smileys across today's games, so let's get into it.
AFL
The model likes the value about the Power H2H as well as the Unders in the Totals market. Unders look an especially solid play given the defensive intent Port will bring at home combined with the lack of key forwards for Essendon (and also no Dixon for Port). Bombers will want this for BJ whilst Port are technically still in the finals hunt. Expect defence to be dominant.
NRL
NZ Warriors vs Penrith Panthers
The Total has been all over the place and so far settles at 38.5 points - Model doesn't like it either way. All the value lies with the Warriors. Their H2H price is worth a smiley while their -3.5 Line gets a lean. With a finals spot on the line and Panthers in awful form, Warriors are looking good to take the chocolates.
The Model has lost confidence in the Cowboys at -6.5 but still leans towards their H2H price. Thurston's last game at home and a healthy pack against a Brown-less Eels all point to a Cowboys win. NQ should be far too strong in the middle and eventually wear Parramatta down.
La Liga
The model sees no value in backing the home or the unders at the short price. Eibar suffered one of the worst starts imaginable – losing at home to La Liga debutants Huesca. They should be out of their depth here. That said, Getafe have drawn their last three at home against Eibar so another would not be a shock.
No value plays at present here. Leganes are outsiders at home after just failing to hold Athletic Bilbao to a draw last week but I don’t mind their chances against Real Sociedad. I will be taking the outside price for both teams to score as well as the overs, given that Leganes’ last five league matches have gone overs (they conceded 2+ in all five) and Real Sociedad put two past a much better side last week.
