Morning Mail: Friday September 7th

Sep 6, 2018, 10:55AM

THE NFL IS BACK! The Atlanta Falcons and Superbowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles go head to head to open the season. Additionally, we've got AFL and NRL Finals to feast on with one game in each code. Let's dive into it!

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Philadelphia Eagles vs Atlanta Falcons

The model can't find too much value in the early markets. The model thinks Atlanta +2.5 is slight value with a 2% edge and no value in the total. It is worth noting that the total is 5 points higher than the 40.5 that was on offer in their last fixture.

Melbourne Storm vs South Sydney Rabbitohs

Souths have never won in Melbourne but the Model likes them in 49% of the 10,000 simulations. There's no early value in their H2H price, but the Model has a slight lean towards their +2 (+6% edge). The Total is set at a low 38.5 points, but it's the only market with a smiley to start the week.

Adam Joseph

Manchester United diehard, Oklahoma City Thunder tragic, New England Patriots fanboy and Carlton Blues sufferer. I like last minute goals, three pointers in transition, unlikely comebacks and underdog stories. Tweet way too much at @AdamJosephSport.