Morning Mail: Saturday August 18th
Last updated: Mar 4, 2021, 3:07AM | Published: Aug 17, 2018, 1:32PM
Five games of AFL, three games of NRL, six games of Premier League and three games of La Liga to enjoy. We are going to be jam-packed with sporting action across the board today, as we're treated to a sporting smorgasbord. Let's dive right in!
AFL
Collingwood vs Port Adelaide - Check out our Match Page
There is value about in this game but we'd recommend waiting until very close to bounce for the full teams and weather picture.
Geelong vs Fremantle - Check out our Match Page
Freo's recent history at Simmons is very solid and with some weather about Saturday the Dockers could be a great play. Final teams and weather info needed, these two sides love a sneaky late change.
Greater Western Sydney vs Sydney - Check out our Match Page
Kelly out, Shaw out, and the model has swung wildly to the Swans. After opening with a slight 4% edge for GWS Monday at the -5.5, the model's post-teams update has a whopping 14% edge for the Swans at +4.5pts.
Gold Coast vs Brisbane - Check out our Match Page
The Suns bring in four pressure players which signals their intentions clearly. This will be a scrap and with tackle pressure and dew certain to make slick ball movement next to impossible, this game has Under written all over it.
St. Kilda vs Hawthorn - Check out our Match Page
A 3% increase in the edge for the Saints at the line (up to 12% from 9% Monday) post teams makes it three green smiling faces staring at punters to finish Super Saturday.
NRL
Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights - Check out our Match Page
Fisher-Harris has been ruled out for Penrith; Ellis into lock. Felise drops off the bench for Newcastle; King in. Meaney in reserves leaves question marks over Ponga. He's expected to play, possibly in the halves.
Wests Tigers vs St. George/Illawarra Dragons - Check out our Match Page
The Under remains the Model's punt but has dropped from 40.5 to 38.5. With Jai Field and Zac Lomax still in the reserves, we could still see a change to the SGI halves, so wait until the final cuts an hour before kickoff.
Cronulla Sharks vs North Queensland Cowboys - Check out our Match Page
The Cowboys Line has jumped out to +9.5, but the Model still doesn't want anything to do with this game. The value summary is a sad place at the moment and it's unlikely to get better before kickoff.
Premier League
Cardiff vs Newcastle - Check out our Match Page
Success at home was what got Cardiff back into the top flight (16 wins from 23 at home in the 17/18 Championship and just 16 goals conceded). Newcastle picked up just eight positive results on the road last season and they’re not a great deal better than some of the sides that Cardiff dealt with last season.
Leicester City vs Wolverhampton - Check out our Match Page
Leicester won four from six against promoted clubs last season. The SI model finds a 3% edge in favour of the Foxes which is encouraging for bettors who fancy them. Wolves have a good squad, but newly promoted sides are worth taking on this early in the season.
Tottenham vs Fulham - Check out our Match Page
Tottenham have won 40 from their past 57 at home. If you fancy the heavy outsiders here, SI identifies a +3% edge in favour of Fulham. They won 12 of 23 on the road in the Championship last season and scored 39 goals.
Everton vs Southampton - Check out our Match Page
We’re expecting goals here as Everton impressed and Southampton weren’t their usual selves last week. ~1.90 for the home side looks quite safe given that they’ve won 13 of 19 at home against Southampton and the Saints haven’t won back-to-back away games since May 2017.
West Ham United vs Bournemouth - Check out our Match Page
West Ham’s home record was nothing special in 2017/18 – they lost to Brighton and Newcastle before Christmas and to Burnley in March. The Hammers conceded 68 goals in total last season and their leaky defending shows no signs of abating.
Chelsea vs Arsenal - Check out our Match Page
A tasty London derby awaits and the SI model believes this is a watch-only fixture. Negative value across the board. Two sides with new managers that will need some time to get into a rhythm
La Liga
Celta Vigo vs Espanyol - Check out our Match Page
Two mid-table sides in Celta Vigo and Espanyol open their campaigns with polarising pre-seasons. No great value to be found here, but if you fancy the overs you’re getting a handy price.
Villarreal vs Real Sociedad - Check out our Match Page
Villarreal played fairly well at home (W11, D3, L5), securing wins against Atletico Madrid and Valencia, as well as holding Real Madrid to a 2-2 draw. Real Sociedad have not won at Villarreal in 12 years and their summer business has been uninspiring.
Barcelona vs Alaves - Check out our Match Page
The champions are strong favourites to do the double again and they’ll begin with three points at home against Alavés. Absolutely zero value in taking the win price though. We think the juicy odds lives within the “both teams to score” market.
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