Morning Mail: Sunday August 19th
Last updated: Mar 4, 2021, 3:06AM | Published: Aug 18, 2018, 6:21PM
Strap yourselves in for a Sunday of sporting action across four different sporting leagues. We've got three games of AFL, two games of NRL, three Premier League fixtures and three La Liga matches. So get yourself ready with all you need to know heading into a big day and night.
AFL
After an emotional win last week the Dogs could dip but the young Blues side are coming back from a gutting Perth trip and face a Dogs side with their captain back who have learnt to kick straight again.
Melbourne have been horrid against key forwards this season. Will be close though and the Dees need this very badly so taking them with that +8.5pt start is not a bad play in a game that looks like going down to the last kick.
When the model identifies a massive 9% edge in the Totals market, it pays to listen. Literally. Unders looks the play here according to the model. Both sides want this badly and both teams have solid defences.
NRL
Canterbury Bulldogs vs New Zealand Warriors
The Dogs had been riding a wave of emotion and effort throughout their purple patch, but last week’s loss put a stop to their momentum. Warriors are the best road team in the comp and looking to lock in their spot in the Top 8 so will be dangerous.
Canberra Raiders vs Sydney Roosters
Not a lot has changed from earlier in the week. Still leans towards the Raiders H2H and at the Line with the lone smiley on the Under at 43.5. James Tedesco has reportedly made it through the captains run, but he’s somebody worth waiting to be confirmed an hour before kickoff.
Premier League
Burnley at home against the flying Hornets who kicked off their season with a win. The model identifies no early value as yet, and for good reason: Burnley need to back up from a Thursday night Europa League qualifier, and Watford have been dreadful on the road.
Manchester City vs Huddersfield
Manchester City may have lost Kevin de Bruyne but they’ve lost no potency in attack and Huddersfield have it all to do this week. Manchester City are awfully short favourites so we looked to the totals and margins markets for value.
This is our value game of the week. But it’s not the H2H we’re interested in: Brighton lost just four games at home last season and actually defeated Manchester United at home in week 36; so we won’t be on United to get the three points, even despite their solid squad. They should win, but we’re not keen on the price.
La Liga
TWO green faces here! Eibar will be immediately under pressure, expected to match a decent 17/18 season in which they finished ninth. Their squad appears weaker this time around, with the owners having sold some key personnel.
There is a minor 2% edge in the overs, which doesn’t appeal given Sevilla scored only 18 goals away last season. We’d certainly prefer to at least wait until the team sheets are out.
Real Madrid will have a point to prove from the get-go after a 2-4 loss to Atletico Madrid in the UEFA Super Cup during the week. We have no doubt they will win, however we are happy to stay out of this one until we get a better perspective of how Real Madrid approach this post-Zidane/Ronaldo era.
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