NBA Betting Tips Today [Sunday 19/11/2023]
Last updated: Nov 18, 2023, 4:02PM | Published: Nov 18, 2023, 7:02AM
The best NBA betting tips for Sunday's action have been unveiled.
Led by its expert team of data analysts, Stats Insider has conducted 10,000 simulations of each one of Sunday's NBA games to produce accurate probabilities, which we then compared to the odds to find the best NBA bets for punters across the nation.
Each one of the recommended bets for Sunday's NBA come directly from the renowned NBA Value Bets page on Stats Insider.
NBA Sunday [19/11]
After diving deep into the numbers and conducting thousands of simulations of today's NBA games, our independent computer model has determined the best basketball bets to make with Australian bookies on Sunday November 19, 2023.
Today's NBA betting tips are led by Bucks vs Mavericks and Warriors vs Thunder, with our advanced predictive model carefully aiming to detect valuable edges.
Bucks vs Mavericks Under 245.5 Points ($1.91)
- Odds: $1.91 via TAB
- Fair Odds: $1.74
- Edge: 7.6%
- Probability: 57.6%
- Match: Bucks vs Mavericks (Sunday, 12:00PM AEDT)
Our model has pinpointed the best NBA bet to make today, focusing on the match between the Bucks and Mavericks. We recommend placing an over/under bet on Under 245.5 Points, currently offered at odds of $1.91 at TAB. We have detected a significant edge of 7.6% for this particular wager, which makes it our NBA bet of the day.
MORE: NBA Value Bets Today
Thunder H2H vs Warriors ($1.86)
- Odds: $1.86 via TAB
- Fair Odds: $1.77
- Edge: 5.0%
- Probability: 56.5%
- Matchup: Warriors vs Thunder (Sunday, 12:30PM AEDT)
Our model has uncovered another standout NBA bet, specifically in the matchup featuring the Warriors and Thunder. We recommend considering a head-to-head wager on Thunder to win, available at $1.86 odds through TAB. We have found a compelling edge of 5.0% for this particular bet.
Bucks H2H vs Mavericks ($1.77)
- Odds: $1.77 via TAB
- Fair Odds: $1.70
- Edge: 4.8%
- Probability: 58.7%
- Matchup: Bucks vs Mavericks (Sunday, 12:00PM AEDT)
Another top tip for today's basketball action comes from the matchup between the Bucks and Mavericks. The play here is a head-to-head bet, with Bucks to win at enticing odds of $1.77 through TAB. Our model has found an advantageous edge of 4.8% for this particular wager.
Heat H2H vs Bulls ($1.72)
- Odds: $1.72 via TAB
- Fair Odds: $1.68
- Edge: 3.4%
- Probability: 59.4%
- Match: Bulls vs Heat (Sunday, 12:00PM AEDT)
Our next bet stems from the game between the Bulls and Heat. The play here is a head-to-head bet on the Heat to win, currently available at $1.72 odds through TAB. Our model has detected a noteworthy 3.4% edge for this particular bet.
Hornets +6.5 vs Knicks ($1.91)
- Odds: $1.91 via TAB
- Fair Odds: $1.88
- Edge: 3.1%
- Probability: 53.1%
- Matchup: Hornets vs. Knicks (Sunday, 10:00AM AEDT)
Next up, we're looking at the Hornets vs. Knicks game. Our model has its eyes on Hornets +6.5, coming in at $1.91 odds. When comparing the best available line odds at TAB to our probabilities, punters are getting a tasty 3.1% edge here.
NBA Best Bets for Sunday 19/11
- Bucks vs Mavericks: Under 245.5 Points ($1.91 at TAB, 7.6% edge)
- Warriors vs Thunder: Thunder to win ($1.86 at TAB, 5.0% edge)
- Bucks vs Mavericks: Bucks to win ($1.77 at TAB, 4.8% edge)
- Bulls vs Heat: Heat to win ($1.72 at TAB, 3.4% edge)
- Hornets vs Knicks: Hornets +6.5 ($1.91 at TAB, 3.1% edge)
MORE: Every NBA Game Simulated 10,000 Times
NBA Games to Bet on Now [November 19, 2023]
- Knicks vs Hornets (Sunday, 10:00AM)
- Timberwolves vs Pelicans (Sunday, 11:00AM)
- Heat vs Bulls (Sunday, 12:00PM)
- Mavericks vs Bucks (Sunday, 12:00PM)
- Grizzlies vs Spurs (Sunday, 12:00PM)
- Thunder vs Warriors (Sunday, 12:30PM)
All times listed are Australian Eastern Time.
What Is an Edge in Betting?
The edge at Stats Insider is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that our predictive analytics model believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the bookies do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.
Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.
What Are Fair Odds in Betting?
Stats Insider uses "fair odds" to present what our model believes are the right odds for a certain bet.
For example, if a team wins 6,520 out of 10,000 simulated games, we'll say they have a 65.2% chance of winning, which is equivalent to fair odds of $1.53. If you can bet on the team at odds of $2.00 with a bookmaker, this would be suggested at the time because we think the odds should be shorter.
Basically, fair odds make it easier to understand why we suggest a certain bet because they are easy to compare to bookie odds.
Make Smarter Sports Betting Decisions Today [19/11]
At Stats Insider, we strongly encourage our readers to set limits for themselves and gamble responsibly within their means.
If you decide to use our NBA tips and predictions for betting purposes, it is crucial to know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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