NBA Bubble: 5 Intriguing Storylines Ahead of the Playoffs
Aug 13, 2020, 4:11AMThe NBA Bubble is somehow better than we imagined. Not only does it translate well for fans on TV, but the standard of play is, in most cases, playoff-ready with teams arriving in Orlando rested and prepared to compete.
While there is plenty to dissect from the first fortnight of basketball's return, I've picked out five storylines that have taken most of my attention as we work close to a belated post-season.
Lillard's looking further than 8th
With the eyes of the basketball world centred on the NBA bubble, Damian Lillard is stealing the show as he drags the Portland Trail Blazers into the playoffs.
He's shooting from anywhere.
He's making them from everywhere.
Scoring 112 points in his last two games and averaging 37 points per game since entering the bubble, Lillard hasn't only dragged the Trail Blazers into contention for the play-in tournament, but they will likely be pegged as favourites and require just one win to secure the 8th seed.
Players with 112+ points over a two-game span in the last 50 NBA seasons (via @EliasSports):
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) August 12, 2020
• Michael Jordan
• Kobe Bryant
• James Harden
• Damian Lillard pic.twitter.com/c3QEEzcRnA
While everybody else might be surprised to see them here given the advantage the Memphis Grizzlies started with and the lofty expectations for the New Orleans Pelicans, Lillard warned us. He reminded TNT's Chris Haynes that this is what he's here to do:
"I told you when I first came here. I said, 'I ain't coming here to waste my time.' They gave us a chance to get in like we asked for, and that's what we here to do. Job still ain't done, but you know what I'm here for. Our work ain't done yet, but we're fighting for it."
The Trail Blazers will face the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round of the playoffs should they advance. It's a daunting task, but one Lillard and his laser focus will be prepared to dominate. He's averaged 36 points per gameagainst the Lakers this season (1-2). With how Lillard is playing, and the questions surrounding the Lakers right now, it's a mouthwatering match-up everybody wants, with some even trying to make it happen themselves (we're looking at you, Clippers).
LeBron and the Lakers
It's come at a different time on the calendar, but as far as the NBA schedule goes, it's right on cue. A Lebron James team has secured their spot in the playoffs and dropping games in the regular season.
The doubters are getting vocal.
"Are the wheels falling off?"
"Is Father Time catching up with The King?"
James isn't putting up elite numbers in the bubble just yet. His 22.8 points per game while shooting 44.7% from the floor and 33.3% from deep won't win him and the Lakers a championship.
James has shot 68.8% in the restricted area since the restart which is right on his season average. It's the 25% in the paint (Non-RA) which is down from his 36% average, 13.3% at mid-range (down from 34.2%), and 33.3% from three (34.8%) that are the worry. He's not proving to be very efficient in isolation either:
However, James himself has acknowledged he isn't mentally in playoff mode and that his body is only just starting to get there.
Given what we've seen throughout his career and the sustained period in which he has been recognised as one of the best players in the game, James' slow st.art to life in the bubble isn't a concern. The Stats Insider futures model still has the Lakers on the third line to win the championship at 22.4%.
The complete list of NBA players that have averaged at least 25 points and 10 assists per game at age 30 or older:
— Kirk Goldsberry (@kirkgoldsberry) August 11, 2020
1. LeBron James, 2019-20 pic.twitter.com/jMxfl99dyC
Are the Rockets the dark horse?
Like every other team in the league, the Houston Rockets trail the Bucks, Clippers and Lakers in the Stats Insider futures model projections. However, there is a growing sense around the league that if one team is to upset the apple cart and make a surprise NBA Finals appearance, it's the Rockets.
Their microball style brought with it plenty of questions into the bubble. While we'd seen it in action before the suspension, it always felt more like an experiment. But with four months to tinker and formulate a way forward, the Rockets are carving out a winning formula.
Russell Westbrook's role appears more defined now than it was and the team looks better for it. The lane has opened up, and when the Rockets can't throw up one of their 54 three-point attempts per game in the bubble, Westbrook is driving to the bucket.
While their rebound percentage is last in the bubble at 43.6%, Houston's 106.4 defensive rating ranks 3rd. They've always known that to get there they want to be on offence, they'll lose ground in other areas.
Perhaps the most notable game of the Rockets bubble experience came against the Lakers. After expecting Anthony Davis and the Lakers to learn from their mistakes the first time, the Rockets kept Davis to just 17 points while forcing him to match his career-high in turnovers with seven in a 113-97 win.
Some things we know: James Harden will run isolation, the Rockets will shoot three's, they won't rebound, and Westbrook will throw up a few speculators. However, it's the element of the unknown that signals the Rockets as the most likely dark horse to challenge the three favourites.
Houston will be given a tough introduction to the playoffs with their opponents now confirmed to be Westbrook's former team, the Oklahoma City Thunder.
James Harden and Russell Westbrook have surpassed Shaq and Kobe as the highest scoring duo in a season since the ABA-NBA merger 🤯
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) August 8, 2020
With a combined 61.7 PPG, they could go scoreless in their final four games and still surpass Shaq and Kobe's 57.5 PPG in '02-'03. (h/t @RobKSports) pic.twitter.com/0hxXNFKhU2
Celtics lining up to challenge Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks are heavy favourites to come out of the Eastern Conference and their odds only increased when the previously smokey Philadelphia 76ers lost Ben Simmons for the rest of the season. But in Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics, the Bucks might still have a challenger.
After scoring just five points in the bubble-opener, a fresh haircut unlocked a new Tatum with the 21-year-old averaging 25.3 points per game while shooting 53.7% from the field and 48.9% rom deep. He's looked unguardable at times and is ready to lead a deep playoff run.
The Celtics have played with a 120.3 offensive rating inside the bubble. They're moving the ball and finding the right hand at the right time. When Jaylen Brown struggled through his last game to shoot 3-13 from the field, Gordon Hayward and Kemba Walker stepped in to sandwich Tatum's 29 points with 19 points each. Three Celtics scored in double-figures off the bench too.
While their recent 109.9 defensive rating poses as a problem, it's likely that they will be presented with the injury-ravaged 76ers in the first round to figure it all out.
Young, relatively inexperienced when it comes to the playoffs and with a bench that doesn't inspire championship-level confidence, the Celtics are a roughie in the East. Crazier things have happened, though. They've displayed enough over the last fortnight to at least entertain the idea of upsetting the Bucks.
Brad Stevens' 318 wins are the fourth-most by any Celtics coach in franchise history (795-Auerbach, 427-Heinsohn, 416-Rivers) https://t.co/OB1wm4L9RM
— Celtics Stats (@celtics_stats) August 12, 2020
Scorching hot Suns
Most thought the Phoenix Suns were awarded a charity spot in the bubble. They probably were with the NBA desperate to crowbar the ultimately disappointing Pelicans into the seeding games. But out of nowhere, the Suns are one win and a favourable result away from featuring in the play-in tournament.
They've won seven games on the bounce. One more over the Dallas Mavericks, and the Suns become Bucks and Nets fans. If the Bucks beat the Grizzlies or the Nets beat the Trail Blazers, the Suns will play at least one more game this season.
Their resurgence begins with Devin Booker; his 31 points per game have set the tone for their bubble-high 11.2 net rating. Booker is scoring, producing in clutch moments and averaging 6.1 assists per game. He has a strong case for the recently introduced bubble MVP.
After dropping 35 PTS today, Devin Booker broke the Suns record for most 30-point games
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) August 11, 2020
He's only 23 years old pic.twitter.com/glXF45wNG5
But it's the likes of Jevon Carter and Cameron Payne shooting over 50% from beyond the arc on 3.4 attempts per game, Dario Saric's 14.6 points and 7.9 rebounds per game, Deandre Ayton's 15.6 points, 9.6 rebounds and 0.9 blocks per game, and Ricky Rubio's 13.7 points and 7.3 assists per game around Booker that has elevated the Suns into playoff contenders.
Given the location, we should have expected a fairytale. The Suns are oh so close to writing their own. Regardless of how their final regular season game turns out, there is plenty for this group to look forward to in 2020-21.
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