NBA Eastern Conference Preview

LeBron James has left the building, ladies and gentlemen. Well, he's left the Eastern Conference. After 15 years of resounding dominance, James has headed West to join the Los Angeles Lakers. So what does that mean for the East? Are Boston ready to inherit the throne? Will Philadelphia's youth rise as the cream of the crop? Or will someone like Toronto or Milwaukee behind the talents of Kawhi Leonard and Giannis Antetokounmpo take control? It's going to be a fascinating season.

Atlanta Hawks

2017/18 Record: 24-58
Offensive Rating: 105.0 (26th)
Defensive Rating: 110.6 (21st)
Net Rating: -5.6 (26th)
2018/19 Over/Under: 22.5

The Hawks finished at the bottom of a poor Eastern Conference last season and are specials to do it again. Opinions around fifth overall pick Trae Young are polarising but even if he hits the highest of ceilings this season, it's unlikely to be enough to drag the Hawks anywhere near the playoffs. Jeremy Lin and Alex Len are serviceable additions and a 41-year-old Vince Carter can still provide something off the bench. Nevertheless, the Hawks won't be making too much of an improvement this season. 

O/U Prediction: Under

Brooklyn Nets

2017/18 Record: 28-54
Offensive Rating: 106 (22nd)
Defensive Rating: 109.6 (21st)
Net Rating: -3.6 (24th)
2018/19 Over/Under: 32

Ed Davis, Jared Dudley, Kenneth Faried and Shabazz Napier wouldn't move the needle for most teams, but they do for the Nets. The Brooklyn bench was second in scoring last season, but their awful defence left them with a -2.9 net rating. Davis and Dudley, at least, will provide the bench with some consistency and discipline. Well-coached and not shy to hoist it from beyond the arc (35.7% of points scored in 2017-18 were from three), the Nets can beat anybody on their day. With some consistent performers and a healthier D'Angelo Russell, the Nets should have a few more of those 'days' this season.

O/U Prediction: Over

Boston Celtics

2017/18 Record: 55-27
Offensive Rating: 106.7 (16th)
Defensive Rating: 103.1 (2nd)
Net Rating: +3.6 (7th)
2018/19 Over/Under: 59

They didn't make a splash in the free agent market over the summer, but we can consider Gordon Hayward a handy addition to a Celtics roster that won 55 games last season. The one-time All-Star only played five minutes in 2017-18 and will surely see the Celtics improve. In saying that, there could be a significant feeling out period to start the year. 

Along with Hayward, Kyrie Irving is returning from injury and figuring out how those two fit with Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum in the rotation won't be something they have ironed out for a month or two. The Celtics are going to be good - a certain Eastern Conference contender. However, it may take some time to get there with all of the adjustments they have to juggle.

O/U Prediction: Under

Charlotte Hornets

2017/18 Record: 36-46
Offensive Rating: 108.9 (9th)
Defensive Rating: 108.9 (17th)
Net Rating: 0.0 (18th)
2018/19 Over/Under: 35.5

The Hornets are playing for Kemba Walker to start the season. They don't want to trade him, but Michael Jordan may have a request come across his desk if Charlotte isn't looking anything close to a playoff team by the deadline. Middle of the road in most areas in 2017-18, a significant improvement may depend on Nic Batum. 

The Frenchman was decidedly average last season but can act as a decent enough option alongside Jeremy Lamb behind Walker. The talent is there for the Hornets, but it was there for only 36 wins last season too. Whether or not Walker gets the support throughout the opening months may decide the future direction of the franchise.

O/U Prediction: Over

Chicago Bulls

2017/18 Record: 27-55
Offensive Rating: 103.3 (28th)
Defensive Rating: 110.4 (28th)
Net Rating: -7.1 (28th)
2018/19 Over/Under: 30

With the dysfunction and injuries of last season hopefully behind them and a nice group of intriguing young pieces to take them forward, predicting the Bulls' season is a lottery. Their floor is the 27 wins of 2017-18 if not worse while their ceiling could be as many as 40 wins and a playoff birth. A lot has to go right for the Bulls to reach the postseason and it starts with the health of Lauri Markkanen and Zach LaVine. 

LaVine only managed 24 games last season and Markkanen is expected to miss at least the first 12 games of this one. If Kris Dunn's improvement allows LaVine to play off the ball and Jabari Parker shows some interest in defense, the Bulls should be able to keep afloat while waiting for Markkanen. Defensive intensity night-to-night may be an issue, but an improvement to their 103.3 offensive rating feels imminent.

O/U Prediction: Over

Cleveland Cavaliers

2017/18 Record: 50-32
Offensive Rating: 112.0 (5th)
Defensive Rating: 111.0 (29th)
Net Rating: +1 (14th)
2018/19 Over/Under: 31

"The Cavaliers will miss LeBron James" is the understatement of the season. Ignore any numbers from their 2017-18 campaign, they mean next to nothing without James in the squad. Collin Sexton (drafted 8th) will be interesting to keep an eye on, but the wins won't come unless Kevin Love returns to the Timberwolves version of himself. 

It's a different game to when Love was posting 26 points and 10 rebounds a night so whether or not he can still put a team on his back remains to be seen. The Cavaliers have nothing to lose and still have productive players in George Hill, Rodney Hood, Larry Nance Jr and Tristan Thompson. They won't be the worst team in the league, but their days of playoff basketball are over for the time being.

O/U Prediction: Over

Detroit Pistons

2017/18 Record: 39-43
Offensive Rating: 106.5 (19th)
Defensive Rating: 106.6 (10th)
Net Rating: -0.1 (19th)
2018/19 Over/Under: 38.5

Without a lot of cap space to work with, the Pistons didn't add a lot of quality over the summer. They're all-in on Blake Griffin, Andre Drummond and company despite going 11-14 since trading for Griffin in January. Reggie Jackson's health will have a significant impact on whether or not the Pistons can add the four or five wins required to get them into the playoff picture. 

They were winning like a playoff team with him in the lineup last season, but he only featured in 45 games. With the Cavaliers dropping out and opening up space in the postseason, it's there for the taking. The Pistons will need to get more out of the supporting cast, though. Griffin and Drummond can't drag them to 40+ wins on their own. 

O/U Prediction: Over

Indiana Pacers

2017/18 Record: 48-34
Offensive Rating: 108.5 (11th)
Defensive Rating: 107.2 (12th)
Net Rating: +1.3 (12th)
2018/19 Over/Under: 48

The Pacers caught everybody by surprise last season. Victor Oladipo, in particular. He hit everything while averaging 23.1 points, 5.2 rebounds and 4.3 assists in a career year. But that's where doubts around their development stem from. Teams that overachieve one year tend to come back to reality the following season rather than building on or maintaining their success. 

Swapping Lance Stephenson out for Tyreke Evans while adding Doug McDermott and Kyle O'Quinn should ensure they don't regress too far - if at all. However, the Pacers have a target on their back now. The 17.8% of their points coming from mid-range in 2017-18 (second-most) is a slight cause for concern in a league that is moving further away from the basket. Can they keep being efficient in an area most teams avoid?

It's playoffs or bust for the Pacers, but improving enough to jump much higher than 5th in the East is no certainty. 

O/U Prediction: Under

Miami Heat

2017/18 Record: 44-38
Offensive Rating: 106.1 (21st)
Defensive Rating: 105.7 (8th)
Net Rating: 0.4 (16th)
2018/19 Over/Under: 43.5

The Heat had a worryingly quiet summer but it may not stay that way. In regular talks with the Timberwolves about a trade for Jimmy Butler, the prospects of Miami's season could be flipped on their head with a single phone call. Without him, there's not a lot to be excited about. 

Currently running on the treadmill of mediocrity the Heat are about as average as it gets. Despite winning 44 games last season, the Heat only managed three three-game winning streaks and just one of four or more games last season. Their roster construction might be the least-inspiring in the league unless they can find a way to get Butler in there. 

O/U Prediction: Under*

*It flips to an Over up to 46.5 wins if the Heat can get Butler.

Milwaukee Bucks

2017/18 Record: 44-38
Offensive Rating: 108.8 (8th)
Defensive Rating: 109.0 (18th)
Net Rating: -0.3 (20th)
2018/19 Over/Under: 48.5

He's regarded as a future MVP of the league, but is this the year Giannis Antetokounmpo makes it a reality? He's going to put up the numbers. Averaging 26.9 points, 10 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.4 blocks last season, a few more Milwaukee W's would have had him in the MVP conversation. Anticipating an improvement on his 35.9% three-point shooting (averaged 41.25 over previous four seasons), Khris Middleton could help Antetokounmpo get the wins required to win the award. 

Likewise, Brook Lopez and Eran Ilyasova's range allows the Bucks to play bigger without needing Antetokounmpo to play the five. With the Greek Freak only getting better and the roster around him better suited to him, the Bucks will be knocking on the door of 50 wins.

O/U Prediction: Over

New York Knicks

2017/18 Record: 29-53
Offensive Rating: 106.2 (20th)
Defensive Rating: 109.6 (22nd)
Net Rating: -3.4 (23rd)

2018/19 Over/Under: 28

With Kristaps Porzingis a possible no-show for the entirety of the season, the Knicks are going to struggle to keep themselves off the bottom of the East. Kevin Knox (drafted 9th), Mario Hezonja and Noah Vonleh aren't enough to fill the void left by the Latvian. To put it simply: the Knicks aren't going to be very good. 

Enes Kanter is a fun and can put up monster numbers, but he's a net-negative player. His -4.9 net rating ranked 372nd in the NBA (min. 30 games) last season. If Kanter is the main man in New York, they're in trouble. They've got seven guards who will all demand minutes, one genuine wing, and two healthy big men before they start scraping the bottom of the barrel (Joakim Noah has now been waived). The Big Apple will be hosting a lemon of a basketball team this season. 

O/U Prediction: Under

Orlando Magic

2017/18 Record: 25-57
Offensive Rating: 104.7 (25th)
Defensive Rating: 109.3 (20th)
Net Rating: -4.7 (25th)
2018/19 Over/Under: 31

DJ Augustin is the starting point guard. That in itself is a reason to be worried about the Magic this season. Aaron Gordon can fill up the box score and should add to the 17.6 points per game he averaged in 2017-18. However, outside of Nikola Vucevic (16.5 ppg) and Evan Fournier (17.8ppg), the scoring is slim. Mo Bamba (drafted 6th) is an intriguing prospect, but he's just that: a prospect. The 20-year-old won't be a game-winner too often in his rookie season.

The Magic are athletic and will feature in plenty of highlight plays, but those highlight plays won't feature in many wins.

O/U Prediction: Under

Philadelphia 76ers

2017/18 Record: 52-30
Offensive Rating: 108.3 (14th)
Defensive Rating: 103.8 (3rd)
Net Rating: +4.5 (4th)
2018/19 Over/Under: 54

The 76ers are young and entertaining and will no doubt be one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference. But will they add to their 52 wins from last season? Did a 16-game winning streak to end the regular season allow them to overachieve, or is that a sign of things to come when they're fit and healthy?

There are plenty of questions surrounding the Sixers already with another over their bench. Marco Belinelli and Ersan Ilyasova played important roles throughout the 16-game winning streak and Philly's playoff run but are no longer there. Markelle Fultz and Wilson Chandler will be doing well to completely replace the departed duo's production. Much like the Pacers, expecting the Sixers to continue along the sharp trajectory they're on might be setting them up to fail.

O/U Prediction: Under

Toronto Raptors

2017/18 Record: 59-23
Offensive Rating: 112.9 (2nd)
Defensive Rating: 105.1 (5th)
Net Rating: +7.8 (2nd)
2018/19 Over/Under: 55.5

Out go DeMar DeRozan and Jakob Poeltl, and incomes Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green and Greg Monroe. For a team that won 59 games to finish the regular season at the top of the East, that's a fair upgrade. Despite that, the odds-makers have taken four wins off the Raptors' win total.

Leonard's health is the great unknown but if he's healthy, the small-forward is a seamless fit and genuine MVP candidate. He can slot right into the lineup to hold up the offense and with OG Anunoby and Kyle Lowry either side of him, the Raptors are one of the best perimeter defensive teams in the NBA. Defense wins championships, and while they might not lift the Larry O'Brien Trophy, the Raptors should rise above 55 wins for the season.

O/U Prediction: Over

Washington Wizards

2017/18 Record: 43-39
Offensive Rating: 108.1 (15th)
Defensive Rating: 107.6 (15th)
Net Rating: +0.5 (15th)
2018/19 Over/Under: 45.5

The Wizards are better than 15th in offensive, defensive and net rating. It's whether or not they want to be better over a full season that will decide how they go in 2018-19. John Wall is healthy and after the locker room issues that came about while he was injured last year, the alleged instigator, Marcin Gortat, has been punted with Dwight Howard taking his place. If there's one franchise that didn't need the disruptions Howard is said to provide, it's the Wizards.

Washington lost too many games they should have won last season. Their 29-24 record (54.7%) as the favourite was the worst of all 16 playoff teams. If they can stop dropping games against poor teams, the Wizards can make some noise in the East.

O/U Prediction: Over

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