NBA Playoffs Predictions and Odds, 2022-23

After one of the tightest regular seasons in recent history, and a play-in tournament full of surprises, it’s time to look ahead to the impending NBA Playoffs for the 2022-23 season. 

Thanks to Stats Insider’s powerful predictive analytics model, we have determined the probabilities of each remaining team going on to win the NBA title.

Some of the popular tips to win the NBA Finals this season include the Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics, and Los Angeles Lakers.

NBA Title Odds and Probabilities

Here, we have listed the remaining 16 NBA teams’ chances of winning the championship this season, as well as the best available odds in Australia right now. 

Eastern Conference

As you can see, the three most likely teams to win the title this year are from the Eastern Conference, with the Bucks, Celtics, and 76ers leading the way. Let’s take a look at the top title chances from the East.

Milwaukee Bucks

Best odds $3.50 with Neds | 20.2% probability

The favourites for the title with both the bookies and Stats Insider’s predictive analytics model, the Bucks are set to take on the Heat in the opening round. After a 58-24 season that will see them with home court advantage for as long as they survive, the Bucks will be confident of getting through this series with little trouble. Led by two-time MVP and best player in the game, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee is the safest bet you can make these playoffs.

Boston Celtics

Best odds $4.50 with BlueBet | 19.3% probability

Next up, we have last year’s Eastern Conference champions, with the Celtics looking to make the most of their Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown core by going one step further this season. Similarly to the Bucks, the Celtics should have no trouble getting through the first round, with punters likely to see their cash out increase over the next couple of weeks.

MORE: Projected box scores for today’s NBA

Philadelphia 76ers

Best odds $13 with TAB | 12.7% probability

With likely MVP Joel Embiid as their star man, the Philadelphia 76ers are one of the teams that our model has detected an edge on. With odds of $13 currently available with TAB, we are getting a 5% edge by betting on the Sixers. Our 12.7% probability equates to fair odds of $7.87, which is likely closer to what the odds will be after the first round is complete.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Best odds $46 with Sportsbet | 2.8% probability

The other Eastern Conference team that we currently have an edge on for the title is the Cleveland Cavaliers. Although this one only has a 0.6% edge, our fair odds of $36 make the $46 on offer with Sportsbet look very nice. A young team with some up-and-coming superstars of the league, the Cavaliers will be one of the most fun teams for punters to follow this postseason.

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New York Knicks

Best odds $126 with BlueBet | 0.9% probability

The fifth most likely team to win the East is Cleveland’s first-round opponent, the New York Knicks. One of the most famous teams in the world, the Knicks have not won the title since 1973. But 2022-23 has seen NY give themselves one of the best chances they have had in years, with new recruit Jalen Brunson giving the franchise a new lease on life throughout the regular season.

Western Conference

Despite the East holding onto the three top spots in the title race according to our model, the evenness of the Western Conference means that they occupy the next five positions. First up, we have the top seed in the Nuggets, with the reigning champs in the Warriors listed next. 

Denver Nuggets

Best odds $13 with TAB | 11.1% probability

Rarely is our model able to detect an edge on multiple favourites (see the 76ers above), but this postseason is an exception, with the Western Conference's top seed, the Denver Nuggets, presenting value to win the title. At odds of $13, we are gaining a 3.4% edge on the market, with Stats Insider’s fair odds being $9 for a Denver title. Nikola Jokic is one of the most intriguing players to watch in the NBA, making the Nuggets a fun option for punters to take in these playoffs.

Golden State Warriors

Best odds $10 with TAB | 8.3% probability

The reigning champs and the team with Stephen Curry at point guard, the Warriors, will always be a threat to win the title as long as they are in the playoffs. Despite being the sixth seed in the West, Golden State enters its first-round clash with the Kings as favourite, largely thanks to the gulf in postseason experience between the two teams. 

MORE: NBA title odds in Australia

Memphis Grizzlies 

Best odds $23 with Sportsbet | 8.2% probability

Next up, we have a team led by young star Ja Morant, who, despite some off-court issues, has taken his game to another level this season. After a couple of seasons in a row of playoff experience, our model projects the Grizzlies as having an 8.2% chance of going all the way this season, giving punters a 3.9% edge on the $23 odds at Sportsbet. To put those numbers into context, our fair odds here are $12.20.

Phoenix Suns

Best odds $5.50 with PointsBet | 7.2% probability

After adding Kevin Durant at the end of the trade period, the Suns shot up the projections for many people, including the bookies. But having to go through a tough run to the finals from the fourth seed means that our model isn’t as strong on Phoenix. The best available odds you can get on the Suns to win the title are $5.50, while our fair odds are out at $13.90.

MORE: Best betting tips for every sport today

Los Angeles Lakers

Best odds $16 with TopSport | 3.4% probability

Lastly, we have another team that our model deems overrated by the bookies, with the Lakers projected as having a title probability of 3.4%, equating to fair odds of $29. But if LeBron James and Anthony Davis can lead LA to the second round, their previous title experience will likely see their probability increase rapidly.

NBA Title Best Bets - 2023

With the aforementioned in mind, the following teams are currently offering value to win the NBA championship, according to Stats Insider's predictive analytics model, in order of highest edge:

• Philadelphia 76ers ($13, 5.0% edge)

• Memphis Grizzlies ($23, 3.9% edge)

• Denver Nuggets ($13, 3.4% edge)

• Cleveland Cavaliers ($46, 0.6% edge)

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