NBA Trade Deadline: Did the Bookies Overreact on the Suns?
Last updated: Feb 10, 2023, 4:46AM | Published: Feb 10, 2023, 4:46AM
The NBA trade deadline is in the books, with teams looking to strengthen their rosters ahead of the second half of the season.
The blockbuster trade was two-time finals MVP Kevin Durant joining Phoenix in a move that gives the Suns one of the strongest starting fives in the league.
WELCOME TO THE VALLEY, KD! 🏜️ pic.twitter.com/13PoF5obn2
— Phoenix Suns (@Suns) February 9, 2023
As a result, bet365 moved the Suns from $19.00 to $5.00, making them their second favourite behind the Boston Celtics for the NBA title.
There's no doubt Durant's inclusion makes the Suns better, but did the bookies overreact to the KD trade?
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Why Didn't the Stats Insider Model Change as Much as the Odds?
While the bookmakers moved the Suns into the top three of their NBA title betting markets across the board given the magnitude of the trade, the Stats Insider NBA futures model wasn't as reactive.
Our in-house data expert said the model didn't shift as dramatically as the bookmakers' odds due a number of factors, including the trade itself and other teams strengthening their respective rosters.
"While Kevin Durant adds a lot to the Suns' line-up, they did give up a solid part of their roster to bring him in," our expert explained.
"Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson have been playing well this season and are big losses to the Suns' rotation, and with the uncertainty surrounding Durant's health, compounded by the fact that both the Mavericks and the Lakers got better in the west, there's no certainty that the Suns will even come out of the conference, much less win it.
"The bookies are covering themselves by bringing the Suns' odds right in, but our model currently has four teams above them."
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Who Are the Top 5 Teams With the Model After the Deadline?
While a number of teams bolstered their rosters ahead of the NBA trade deadline, the top three teams with our model – Boston, Milwaukee, and Denver – made minimal moves.
The Dallas Mavericks and the Suns were the biggest movers on Stats Insider's NBA futures model after acquiring Kyrie Irving and Durant respectively, both from the Nets.
Welcome to Dallas, @KyrieIrving!#MFFL pic.twitter.com/p70CWK3iwp
— Dallas Mavericks (@dallasmavs) February 6, 2023
The Celtics remain the favourites for the title at 21.8% probability while the Bucks are second favourites at 13%.
The Nuggets (11.7%), Mavericks (9.6%) and the Suns at 8.2% probability round out the top-five NBA title hopes.
| Team | Pre-Deadline Title Probability | Post-Deadline Title Probability |
| Celtics | 24.7% | 21.8% |
| Bucks | 9.5% | 13.0% |
| Nuggets | 14.8% | 11.7% |
| Mavericks | 4.3% | 9.6% |
| Suns | 3.9% | 8.2% |
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