NFL Betting Preview: Week 10

We’re officially at the halfway point of the 2018/19 NFL season with all 32 teams now playing at least 8 games. The talking point this week has mostly been the slight power shift amongst the top NFL teams with the Saints taking the top spot from the previously undefeated Rams. As Gregg Rosenthal mentioned in his Debrief Column, “the NFL is awash in winning streaks”. The Saints win over the Rams not only broke the Rams 8 game winning streak but also put them on a 7 game winning streak, New England has now racked up six straight wins after an underwhelming showing in Week 3 against the Lions, the L’Veon Bell-less Steelers have now won four straight to take top spot in the North and the Chargers have won five straight with their only two losses coming at the hands of Rams and Chiefs. 

All these good teams winning comfortably reached a pinnacle in Week 9 with plenty of the favourites covering their spreads. Sunday (or Monday Down Under) was the worst Sunday of the season for the sportsbook's in Vegas. They reportedly “took a bath” with Kansas City, New England, New Orleans, Minnesota, Carolina & Pittsburgh all covering their respective spreads. The result of the last few weeks sees some really intriguing spreads for Week 10. We have close to 7 games with favourites of a touchdown or more including four double digit favourites. Backing double digit underdogs is normally quite a successful strategy (this is the NFL after all, Buffalo @ Minnesota was just 6 weeks ago) it’s becoming increasingly difficult to bet against these incredibly productive and elite offenses. Week 10 shall be an interesting one in that regard. So, anyway, here are our five favourite plays of the NFL in Week 10 and we recommend listening to the Punt Return Podcast for more information and more potential plays.

Our five best picks below.

THE GAME: CAROLINA PANTHERS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

WHEN: THURSDAY 12:20pm AEST

THE PLAY: Over 51.5

Thursday Night Football was incredibly generous to us and the Punt Return podcast for the first seven weeks of the season but the last two weeks have been disastrous with all of our plays (Miami +7.5 & Oakland +3.5) losing in miserable fashion. While we were tempted to the road underdog for the third straight week on TNF we have decided to pivot and take the over in this one.

Both teams have been on win streaks of late with the Steelers winning four straight and the Panthers racked up their third straight with a victory over Tampa Bay. Across those win streaks the two teams have racked up 34.5 and 33.0 points per game respectively. The Panthers in particular have produced 99 points in their last 9 quarters. What Norv Turner has done with this offense has been one of the most entertaining surprises of the season. Turner’s offense has Cam Newton putting up career highs in a number of passing categories as he enters the MVP race. The Steelers offense has exploded lately after some early season stutters and it’s mostly on the back of impressive showings from James Conner. The second year running back has shown Le’Veon Bell like patience running the ball and making defenders missing after the catch.

The Over has been the result on Thursday Night Football in six of the nine match-ups this season and there are plenty of other trends to back it up. The total has gone over in 7 of the Steelers last 10 games and 5 of their last 6 games at home. The total has gone over in 5 of the Panthers last 7 games and more importantly it’s gone over in 4 of their last 5 when playing Pittsburgh. Take the over & enjoy what is the game of the week. 

THE GAME: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

WHEN: Monday 5:00am AEST

THE PLAY: New Orleans -4.5

The New Orleans Saints are the best team in the National Football League right now. They’re on a 7 game winning streak and Drew Brees is the clubhouse leader for the MVP award. After an incredible victory in the fourth quarter against the Rams they now travel to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals, who are fresh off a bye. With games against Philadelphia & Atlanta coming up on the Saints schedule, this can be seen a trap game for them but Brees and Payton are too sharp to let that happen. 

While the 5-3 Bengals are seen quite favourably by the football cognoscenti they go into this game with some troubling concerns on defense especially in the passing game. Over their last 3 games they rank 31st in the NFL in yards allowed per completion at 13.2. The Saints are averaging 10.8 yards per completion over their last 3 games, good for 14th in the league. The Bengals also go into this game without superstar wide receiver AJ Green, leaving Andy Dalton with Tyler Boyd and a bunch of no name weapons in the passing game. Dalton averages half a touchdown less a game without Green. Joe Mixon will have a tough time on the ground as well with the Saints ranked 1st in the NFL in rushing defense.

It’s pretty safe to assume that the Bengals may have some issues moving the ball on offense and the Saints should find some space throwing the ball against the 23rd ranked DVOA defense. We like the Saints to cover the 4.5 spread here even on the road even if the model LOVES the Bengals at the +5 here.

THE GAME: MIAMI DOLPHINS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS

WHEN: Monday 5:00am AEST

THE PLAY: Green Bay -9.5

From the outset, 9.5 points seems like a big line for a match between the 13th and 14th ranked DVOA teams but when you examine the Dolphins a bit closer it’ll make a lot more sense. Firstly, Brocktober is over and the when the calendar struck November he became what we all knew he was: an incredibly mediocre quarterback. Secondly, the Dolphins benefitted from a very easy early season schedule and their defense has had the 5th easiest schedule by DVOA. Their current DVOA rating is heavily weighted by their early season run.

Last week’s “victory” by Miami was one of the worst of the season by any team. They managed just 168 yards, 7 first downs and just 13 points. Of those 13 points, 7 of them were from a reckless pick six from rookie quarterback Sam Darnold. The Jets outgained them by over 100 yards, 8 first downs but shot themselves in the foot countless times with multiple turnovers. The Packers loss to the Patriots was textbook. Aaron Rodgers had them in the position to win the game but a fumble from running back Aaron Jones & some bland play calling by Mike McCarthy put them behind the eight ball against Bill Belichick. 

Aaron Rodgers won’t make the same mistakes Sam Darnold did last week at home against this 23rd ranked DVOA pass defense. Rodgers has only thrown 1 interception all season, let alone four in one game. Miami is currently 1-4 against the spread when playing in Green Bay & won’t have an easy time in weather conditions that the Dolphins are not used to. Grab the -9.5 while you can. 

THE GAME: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS

WHEN: Monday 8:25am AEST

THE PLAY: Seattle +10

10 points! T-E-N Points!? You’re getting ten points in a divisional game between two teams that just last month met in a game decided by only 2 points? Sign us up. In that game the Seahawks managed to produce 31 points against the Rams defense with a great performance on the ground from Chris Carson. 

This 10 point spread is the largest ever spread that Russell Wilson has faced during his career in the National Football League (you’ll remember that Aaron Rodgers covered the largest underdog spread of his career in a similar spot against the Rams just a fortnight ago). Wilson has never been more than a 7.5 point underdog in the NFL and has a great 10-1 against the spread record when he has been an underdog of more than 3 points. When he is favoured by more than 7 points, Wilson is a flawless 3-0 against the spread.

The Rams haven’t covered the spread in four of their previous five games and up until a slip up at home to the red hot Chargers, the Seahawks were on 4-1 against the spread record across their last five games. Seattle have improved dramatically since their last game against the Rams, rising to as high as 4th in DVOA overall (they dropped to 9th after the Chargers loss) but maintain a strong DVOA defensive record inside the top 5. While the Rams can score on anyone, we like the Seahawks to play their divisional rivals tough regardless of the circumstances and cover the massive 10 point spread.

THE GAME: DALLAS COWBOYS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

WHEN: Monday 12:20pm AEST

THE PLAY: Philadelphia -6.5

Last week was the perfect for the Eagles. They returned home from London with a victory, traded for Golden Tate to give Carson Wentz yet another weapon, had plenty of time to rest up on their bye week and watched both Dallas & Washington get absolutely embarrassed at home. The Eagles are poised to make a big second half of the season and take control of the division after having a patchy start to the season. They have to be feeling great about their chances against an very underwhelming Cowboys team travelling across the country on a short week.

The Cowboys have been absolutely dreadful on offense this season averaging just 19.2 points per game and for a number of reasons. The loss of Travis Frederick has really hurt their running game, their receiving core has been less than ideal (hence the Amari trade) and most importantly Scott Linehan’s play calling has been uninspiring at best. They’ve scored 14 or fewer points in half of their last 16 outings and actually average less than 14 points per game outside of Jerry World. This bodes well for a Philly defense that is much better defensively at home. The vaunted Eagles defense allow just 5.2 yards per play at home (good for 9th in the league) as opposed to the 6.2 they give up away from the Linc. 

While we expect the stingy Dallas defense to provide some stops, we think the Eagles will just have too much firepower for them over the course of the game ultimately overwhelm them on defense. It’s hard to pick the team that has managed just five touchdowns in four away games this season and for this reason we like the Eagles to cover the 6.5 point spread.